Morris should eventually win the starting
job from McFadden but the fantasy value of both lacks upside.
Alfred Morris exploded onto the scene from Florida Atlantic in 2012
as a top-five running back in his rookie season (1,613 yards rushing,
13 TDs). That’s the good news. In the three succeeding years,
Morris’ actual production and fantasy value have fallen to
the point that in 2015 he was not a starting fantasy running back.
Morris in Washington
After three 1,000-yard seasons, Morris turned into a part-time running
back last season, sharing the workload with rookie Matt Jones. That’s
bad news for a one-dimensional running back like Morris who has
never caught more than 17 receptions in a season. In 2016 Morris
saw just 202 carries, the fewest of his career, and not coincidently,
averaged a career-low 3.7 yards-per-carry.
Apparently Washington saw enough in Jones, despite some ball security
issues, and Chris Thompson to be willing to let Morris leave town
for a relatively small sum of money (two years at $3.5 million)
and that’s exactly what happened as Morris signed with division-rival
Dallas.
Morris in Dallas
The two-time Pro Bowler will join a backfield with veteran Darren
McFadden and rehabbing Lance
Dunbar (ACL).
Despite owner Jerry Jones’ comments that McFadden will get
the bulk of the carries, Morris should eventually win the starting
job from McFadden, not because he’s a better running back,
but because McFadden is the much better receiver and can play the
part-time runner, third-down receiving role a lot better than Morris.
This will end up in both runners taking significant hits to their
touches (Morris 212 last season, McFadden a career-high 279). The
drop will be even more dramatic when/if Dunbar returns from his
knee injury.
Morris’ 2016 fantasy value
“He’s one of those guys that continues to move the chains,
do good things, sometimes they’re not spectacular, but they’re
productive, said Dallas head coach Jason Garrett. “We think
he’s a good fit for our offensive line and what we’re
trying to do,” said executive vice president Stephen Jones.
Both statements may be true, but that doesn’t mean Morris
is going to be a great fantasy value.
The best reason I can give you to select Morris for your fantasy
team this season is that he has never missed a game in his four-year
career. That’s in stark contrast to McFadden who has only
played a full schedule twice in eight seasons. Morris’ fantasy
value skyrockets if McFadden comes up lame, but in the meantime
this is going to be a near 50-50 split in touches and neither running
back will be a top fantasy value.
For 2016 I’m expecting Morris to rush for a better average
behind the Cowboys’ strong offensive line. Give him a new
“career-low” 190 rushing attempts but at 4.4 ypc for
836 yards. His touchdown production should return with eight scores.
Meanwhile McFadden will see 150 rushing attempts and 50 receptions.
As I said, a virtual split in the workload which will leave both
backs underutilized and low-end RB2 fantasy options.
And of course, all bets are off if the Cowboys select Ohio State’s
Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth pick in this April’s upcoming
draft.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
