Bye weeks are almost a thing of the past with just two more teams
sitting out next weekend. Week 12 will see all 32 teams back on
the field so fantasy lineups should be at full strength as you
challenge for a spot in the playoffs.
More consistent than you might think.
Jameis Winston is on his way to a top ten fantasy QB finish.
“All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered;
the point is to discover them.” - Galileo Galilei
1) The zebras missed a big one Monday
During the Texans’ first drive in the Houston-Oakland Monday
matchup, DeAndre Hopkins made a nice catch and run for a touchdown
only to be incorrectly ruled out of bounds by officials. All season
long, officials have been letting plays go because they knew that
a score, or turnover, will automatically be reviewed, but this
time we heard a quick whistle. The call cost his fantasy owners
10 points. (Truth in advertising - yes, I do have Hopkins in one
of my leagues and I feel wronged, not because they got the play
wrong, that happens, but because they didn’t follow what
they have done for the first 10 weekends.)
2) Don’t blame Aaron Rodgers
for the Packers woes, it’s their defense that’s been
Rodgers leads all fantasy quarterbacks averaging 28.2 fantasy
points per game. That’s better than “God” a.k.a.
Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. His 2016 average is his best
since 2011 when he won the league’s MVP award posting 30.4
3) If Andrew Luck (concussion protocol)
doesn’t play, it’s going to be even worse than you
might expect for T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett
and Jack Doyle.
The backup for Luck is Scott Tolzein, who has made a total of
two career starts. In those two starts for Green Bay in 2013,
he threw for 437 yards, but zero touchdowns and three interceptions.
He was yanked in the second game for the immortal Matt Flynn.
Green Bay had Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin at
wideout and Jermichael Finley for a tight end so his poor performance
wasn’t for lack of receiving help.
4) Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston
has thrown or run for a touchdown in every game since joining
the NFL in 2015 (28 games).
That makes his floor pretty high. Winston has never posted less
than 15.4 fantasy points in an NFL game. He ranks ninth this season
averaging 22.8 FPts/G after finishing a respectable 13th in his
rookie season. Winston also threw a touchdown in all 27 of his
college games at Florida State where he was 26-1.
5) The most efficient wide receiver
this season is Jamison Crowder.
True. Based on all receivers who have seen at least 50 targets,
Crowder is averaging a league-leading 1.51 points-per-target.
Crowder has posted five consecutive game with at least 10 fantasy
points while seeing an average of just seven targets per game
over that span. Hey Kirk Cousins, throw more passes his way!
For the curious, here is the top-10...
Most Effeicient WRs (50+Targets)
“How 'bout a shot of truth in that denial cocktail.”
1) We think of the Denver Broncos as a great defensive team.
That’s not 100-percent true, they are actually a great “passing”
defense, No. 1 in both QB fantasy points allowed (17.0) and WR
fantasy points allowed (14.0), but the team has proven to be vulnerable
to the run game having given up the third-most yards to running
backs in the league (1,053). Denver is yielding 21.1 fantasy points
per game to backs which ranks them 26th among 32 teams.
2) Allen Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders,
Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall and DeAndre Hopkins are efficient
In the past, perhaps, but in 2016 they are more accurately “volume
receivers.” The quintet need more targets to produce fewer
fantasy points than anyone in the top-50.
3) Colin Kaepernick is just a temporary
fill-in until the 49ers can find their starting quarterback of
The team might be looking for a quarterback to build around, but
fantasy owners should pay attention to the fact that Kaepernick
is scoring as well as Cousins (23.4 FPts/G) and less than half-a-point
less than heralded rookie Dak Prescott (23.8) and two-time Super
Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger (23.8). San Francisco is horrible
on offense and defense, but Kaepernick hasn’t posted less
than 19.6 points in any of his five starts. He and the 49ers won’t
play a top-10 fantasy defense, based on QB points allowed, until
Week 17 and they face the league’s worst QB defense during
“Championship Week” (Week 16).
4) Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski
is as close to a sure thing as anyone on the football field.
Oops! After leading the league the past four seasons and averaging
at least 9.4 FPts/G in each campaign, Gostkowski is currently
mired in 18th-place averaging just 6.9 FPts/G. It’s about
a lack of opportunities. Gostkowski averaged 2.32 field goal attempts
per game from 2012-2015, but in 2016 that number has dropped significantly,
to just 1.6 tries per contest.
5) Sam Bradford was worth the No.
1 pick the Vikings gave to the Eagles.
That four-game winning streak to start the season that had fans
so excited seems eons ago as the team has lost four of its last
five games. Even during the winning streak Bradford averaged just
18.4 FPts/G and since then it’s dropped to 16.8 FPts/G.
That’s hardly fantasy worthy and now that 30 of the 32 teams
have gotten past their bye week it’s fine to unload him.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.