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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Luck Won't Help You in the Playoffs
7/23/17
Sam Bradford

Using fantasy points allowed from last season, Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford has the best schedule of any fantasy QB.


Quarterbacks consistently score the most points in fantasy leagues … so it’s important to get the right ones on your roster. Why did I use the plural “right ones” you might ask? Because you can’t win with just one quarterback.

Even future Hall of Famer and defending Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady can only play a maximum of 15 games over the first 16 weekends which means you will have to use a backup starting at least once. And as you can see in the chart below, he’ll also face last year’s No. 1 defense in “fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks” (at Denver) in Week 10 so playing the backup a second weekend might be advantageous. Weather and injuries can also leave you playing your backup.

The chart below, which is based on last season’s fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, lays out the 2017 fantasy regular season schedule from Week 1 through Week 13 and the playoffs from Week 14-16. It can help you both on draft day and determining your weekly starting lineups.

There are quite a few lessons we can learn from the information box. Here are just eight of them:
  1. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has the worst playoff schedule in the league, playing at Buffalo (ranked 8th), Denver (1) and at Baltimore (12) over the three-week period from Week 14-16. His regular season isn’t much better, ranking 30th-best of 32 teams.

  2. After a good Week 1 matchup (Miami), Jameis Winston has a tough six-game span from Week 2-7, then should blow up. The final eight teams on his schedule average 26.5, including the best playoff schedule possible; at Detroit (28), Atlanta (32) and Carolina (24). If you select Winston early in your draft, I suggest picking Sam Bradford as your backup. The combined quarterback average using Winston and Bradford correctly would be 24.5.

  3. Of the elite quarterbacks, Drew Brees has the best regular season schedule with the 15 teams he faces averaging ranked 20.4 against opposing QBs. Only Bradford (22.2) and Mike Glennon (21.2), neither of whom could be called elite, or even second-tier, have better schedules. Joe Flacco or Ryan Tannehill fit as a backup for Brees as they’ll face at Oakland (27) or Tennessee (26), respectively during Brees’ bye weekend. Brees also owns the second-best playoff schedule.

  4. If you want your quarterback to explode out of the starting gate, Russell Wilson is your guy. His first five games, before a Week 6 bye are; at Green Bay, San Francisco, at Tennessee, Indianapolis and at Los Angeles Rams. The combined rank of those five opponents – 24.4.

  5. Philip Rivers will face seven top-10 pass defenses in his first 11 weeks (10 games plus a bye). Tannehill is a good fit with Rivers. The combined average of their opponents could be 20.7.

  6. If you select Derek Carr you better have a big lead heading into Week 11 because the final three games of his fantasy regular season are: New England (9) in Mexico City, Denver (1) and the New York Giants (2). Blake Bortles, if he’s still the Jaguars starter, matches up well with Carr because his final three regular season games are: at Cleveland, at Arizona and Indianapolis. Bradford has a better final three games as well and has the easiest fantasy schedule of any quarterback.

  7. Tom Brady’s perfect fit would be Matthew Stafford, who travels to Green Bay and hosts Cleveland in Week 9 and 10, respectively, but he might be too “expensive” as he’s close to a top-10 quarterback. Eli Manning, Tannehill or Tyrod Taylor are other options with good Week 9-10 matchups.

  8. Alex Smith has a great fantasy playoff schedule Oakland, Los Angeles Chargers and Miami (all at home), but he won’t really help you get there with the 26th-best regular season schedule.
Note: The "3-gm" column represents Weeks 14-16

 2017 Quarterback Schedule - Fantasy Points Allowed
Player Team Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 3-gm 15-gm
S. Bradford MIN 25 6 21 28 11 31 12 30 bye 18 22 28 32 24 14 31 23.0 23.0
M. Glennon CHI 32 21 6 31 7 12 24 25 bye 31 28 10 20 14 28 30 24.0 21.2
D. Brees NO 7 9 24 29 bye 28 31 11 21 8 18 22 24 32 11 32 25.0 20.4
C. Newton CAR 20 8 25 9 28 10 11 21 32 29 bye 16 25 7 31 21 19.6 19.5
J. Winston TB 29 11 7 2 9 13 8 24 25 16 bye 32 31 28 32 24 28.0 19.3
J. McCown NYJ 8 27 29 5 30 9 29 32 8 21 bye 24 15 1 25 19 15.0 18.8
T. Taylor BUF 16 24 1 32 14 bye 21 27 16 25 19 15 9 23 29 9 20.3 18.6
M. Ryan ATL 11 31 28 8 bye 29 9 16 24 17 4 21 7 25 21 25 23.6 18.4
J. Flacco BAL 14 30 5 6 27 11 7 29 26 bye 31 3 28 6 30 23 19.6 18.4
T. Brady NE 15 25 3 24 21 16 32 19 bye 1 27 29 8 29 6 8 14.3 17.5
R. Wilson SEA 31 20 26 23 22 bye 2 3 18 13 31 20 10 5 22 17 14.6 17.5
R. Tannehill MIA 21 19 16 25 26 32 16 12 27 24 bye 9 1 9 8 15 10.6 17.3
T. Simian DEN 19 17 8 27 bye 2 19 15 10 9 14 27 29 16 23 18 19.0 16.8
A. Rodgers GB 4 32 14 11 17 7 25 bye 28 11 12 6 21 30 24 7 20.3 16.6
M. Stafford DET 13 2 32 7 24 25 bye 6 31 30 11 7 12 21 11 14 15.3 16.4
B. Roethlisberger PIT 30 7 11 12 5 15 14 28 bye 23 26 31 14 12 9 3 8.0 16.1
E. Manning NYG 17 28 10 21 19 1 4 bye 22 20 15 18 27 17 10 13 13.3 16.1
C. Palmer ARI 28 23 17 20 10 21 22 bye 20 4 3 5 22 26 18 2 15.3 16.0
D. Prescott DAL 2 1 13 22 31 bye 20 18 15 32 10 19 18 2 27 4 11.0 15.6
B. Bortles JAX 3 26 12 16 6 22 23 bye 14 19 30 13 23 4 3 20 9.0 15.6
M. Mariota TEN 27 5 4 3 29 23 30 bye 12 14 6 23 3 13 20 22 18.3 15.6
D. Watson HOU 5 14 9 26 15 30 bye 4 23 22 13 12 26 20 5 6 10.3 15.3
A. Dalton CIN 12 3 31 30 8 bye 6 23 5 26 1 30 6 11 7 28 15.3 15.1
C. Kessler CLE 6 12 23 14 16 3 26 7 bye 28 5 14 19 31 12 11 18.0 15.1
C. Wentz PHI 18 15 2 19 13 24 18 20 1 bye 17 11 4 22 2 27 17.0 14.2
A. Smith KC 9 10 19 18 3 6 27 1 17 bye 2 8 16 27 19 29 25.0 14.0
K. Cousins WAS 10 22 27 15 bye 20 10 17 4 7 25 2 17 19 13 1 11.0 13.9
P. Rivers LAC 1 29 15 10 2 27 1 9 bye 5 8 17 30 18 15 16 16.3 13.5
D. Carr OAK 26 16 18 1 12 19 15 8 29 bye 9 1 2 15 17 10 14.0 13.2
A. Luck IND 22 13 30 4 20 26 5 14 3 6 bye 26 5 8 1 12 7.0 13.0
B. Hoyer SF 24 4 22 13 23 18 17 10 13 2 bye 4 11 3 26 5 11.3 13.0
J. Goff LAR 23 18 20 17 4 5 13 bye 2 3 7 25 13 10 4 26 13.3 12.6


Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.