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Kyle Smith | Archive | Email
Staff Writer


Overvalued & Undervalued - Wide Receivers
8/8/14

The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors in the right round without reaching for need can make or break fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important – to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in. But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).

Undervalued

Marques Colston

Colston is very capable of posting 1000 yds and 7 TDs.

Marques Colston, Saints
ADP: 7.04

The Case for Colston Being Undervalued: He’s never failed to produce and may be counted on even more this season due to some key departures.

The Case against Colston Being Undervalued: He’s 31 years old and tied a career-low with five touchdown receptions last season.

Verdict: Colston’s numbers last season were from far extraordinary – he had 75 receptions for 943 yards and five touchdowns – but there’s reason to believe a statistical uptick is on the horizon for 2014. Darren Sproles and Lance Moore, who combined for over 100 receptions and 140 targets last season, are gone. It shouldn’t automatically be assumed Kenny Stills and rookie Brandin Cooks will completely pick up the slack. Colston shouldn’t be anybody’s WR1, but on average he’s the 31st wideout drafted, which is too low for Drew Brees’ most-trusted wide receiver.

Marvin Jones, Bengals
ADP: 11.06

The Case for Jones Being Undervalued: The big wideout caught 10 touchdowns last season and lines up opposite A.J. Green.

The Case against Jones Being Undervalued: His touchdown rate last season won’t be replicated, and the Cincinnati offense is likely to throw the ball less in 2014.

Verdict: Last year, Jones came out of nowhere to wind up 21st among wide receivers in fantasy scoring. There is context to his numbers, however – 10 of his 51 receptions went for touchdowns, a rate that will be all but impossible for him to duplicate, and four of those scores came in one game against the Jets. So Jones will probably score fewer touchdowns in 2014, but it would be a surprise if he didn’t improve on his 51 catches and 712 receiving yards. He came on toward the end of last season, with at least 60 yards in four of his last five contests (including the playoffs) and touchdowns in three of those games. Fantasy owners should not expect Jones to once again be among the top-25 fantasy scorers at wide receiver, but right now there are 49 other wideouts being taken before him, and there won’t be 49 receivers ahead of him in fantasy scoring come the end of the year.

Miles Austin, Browns
ADP: 14.01

The Case for Austin Being Undervalued: He’s a big and talented wideout on a Browns team with precious few receiving options due to the likely suspension of Josh Gordon.

The Case against Austin Being Undervalued: He’s had trouble staying healthy, and Cleveland has anything but a stable quarterback situation.

Verdict: When healthy, Austin is a guy capable of putting up numbers that make him worthy of low-end WR2 status. The key phrase there being “when healthy.” He’s missed at least five games in two of the last three seasons and was overshadowed in the Dallas offense by Dez Bryant. Now with the Browns, Austin becomes the team’s top option at wide receiver with Gordon’s probable suspension. Austin has reportedly looked good during training camp, and no matter who winds up as Cleveland’s starter at quarterback, the 30-year-old from Monmouth will produce enough to make a late-round selection of him look like a steal.

Overvalued

Pierre Garcon, Redskins
ADP: 4.02

The Case for Garcon Being Overvalued: With DeSean Jackson aboard, Garcon will not lead the league in targets and receptions again this season.

The Case against Garcon Being Overvalued: Robert Griffin III clearly trusts him, and there are still plenty of throws to go around in head coach Jay Gruden’s offense.

Verdict: Last season, no wide receiver was targeted more (182) or had more catches (113) than Garcon, but despite all those looks, he managed only five touchdowns. This offseason, Washington brought in DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts to give RG3 and Gruden more weapons. Those two – particularly Jackson – should slice into Garcon’s numbers significantly enough to make him tumble into WR2 status. Garcon will still put up impressive enough numbers, but 2013 was a career year for him.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
ADP: 4.08

The Case for Patterson Being Overvalued: The Vikings don’t exactly have superior quarterback play, Patterson is still raw, and he likely won’t score three rushing touchdowns again this season.

The Case against Patterson Being Overvalued: His talent is undeniable, and he’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

Verdict: Every position has an “it” player, and in 2014 that player at wide receiver is Patterson. Despite having fewer than 500 receiving yards last season and having his fantasy scoring inflated by three rushing scores, fantasy owners are overdrafting the Tennessee product. It’s perfectly logical to think Patterson’s numbers will go up no matter who the Minnesota quarterback is, but his ADP is the same as Andre Johnson’s and better than the likes of Roddy White, Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson. To take a chance on Patterson makes all the sense in the world – to do it in the fourth round ahead of established producers does not.

Sammy Watkins, Bills
ADP: 7.02

The Case for Watkins Being Overvalued: His quarterback isn’t much of a passing threat at this point, and rookie wideouts often struggle on teams without established QBs.

The Case against Watkins Being Overvalued: Watkins has talent on par with the best in the league.

Verdict: If Watkins were drafted by a different team, it would be tempting to take him higher than the seventh round. However, getting plucked by the Bills significantly hurts his fantasy potential. Even if EJ Manuel shows marked improvement, this is a run-first team that had only one player with at least 90 targets last season, Stevie Johnson. Johnson’s gone, and though Watkins is expected to become the team’s top wideout immediately, and we’ve seen rookie receivers succeed recently, overall history suggests otherwise. None of the top three wideouts being taken this season – Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant – reached 800 receiving yards as rookies.