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Kyle Smith | Archive | Email
Staff Writer


Overvalued / Undervalued – Quarterbacks
8/8/15


Editor's Note: ADP based on 12-team non-PPR scoring system.

The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors in the right round without reaching for need can make or break fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important – to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in. But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill has increased his completion %, passing yards and TD throws in each season of his career.


UNDERVALUED

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
ADP: 9.07

The Case For Tannehill Being Undervalued: He was a top-10 fantasy scorer at his position last year and has steadily improved each season.

The Case Against Tannehill Being Undervalued: The Dolphins lack a standout receiver, and Tannehill’s legs are a bit overrated, fantasy-wise.

Verdict: Tannehill had a very solid third year for Miami, with just over 4,000 passing yards to go with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had 311 rushing yards, but just one rushing score (his four career scores on the run are the same total Andy Dalton had last season). Still, the team clearly wants more out of their passing game, so they overhauled their receiving corps, bringing in DeVante Parker, Jordan Cameron, and Kenny Stills. Tannehill has increased his completion percentage, passing yards and touchdown throws while cutting down on interceptions in each season of his career, so it would be wise to assume he’ll continue his ascent – or at the very least have numbers similar to what he did in 2014.

Philip Rivers, Chargers
ADP: 10.01

The Case For Rivers Being Undervalued: He’s thrown for 4,200+ yards in five of his last six seasons and has more than 30 touchdown passes in each of the last two years.

The Case Against Rivers Being Undervalued: He’s now 33, isn’t a running threat and tosses too many balls to the wrong team.

Verdict: Rivers was in the top-10 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks last season with nearly 4,300 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also threw 18 interceptions, or he would have ranked higher. And while there’s no doubt he’ll miss Antonio Gates during the tight end’s four-game suspension, Rivers does have Keenan Allen to throw to, who should improve after last season’s disappointment. Fantasy owners who are looking for big upside won’t pay attention to Rivers, but smart ones will want a guy who simply goes out and throws for 4,000 yards and 30 scores a season.

Jay Cutler, Bears
ADP: 13.10

The Case For Cutler Being Undervalued: Last season was statistically his best in a Bears uniform and when healthy he’s been better than most think.

The Case Against Cutler Being Undervalued: Aside from being arguably the least likable athlete in professional sports (or collegiate, high school or youth sports), he’s injury-prone and turns the ball over too much.

Verdict: Let’s clear up one thing real quick – nobody is saying to rush out and make Cutler your QB1. Far from it. But he’s the No.21 quarterback being taken, on average, and that’s an oddly low number for a guy that tossed 28 touchdowns (or the same amount as Matt Ryan) last season. Cutler’s interceptions and fumbles can be maddening, but he’s a guy who can throw for 280 yards and a couple scores if your QB1 goes down or is on a bye.

OVERVALUED

Cam Newton, Panthers
ADP: 6.12

The Case For Newton Being Overvalued: Most of his numbers have regressed steadily, and at some point all the hits he’s taken will catch up to him.

The Case Against Newton Being Overvalued: Newton has a history of fantasy success, and that running ability is tantalizing.

Verdict: Newton had the worst season of his career last year, with just over 3,100 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while running for 539 yards and five scores. Each of those numbers represented a career-low, and after four years it’s safe to say Newton just isn’t an elite passer. That would be fine if he could continue running the ball the way he did his rookie year, but running quarterbacks struggle to maintain their production in that regard. The former number one overall pick should still be productive, but the sixth round seems too high for a player with Newton’s question marks.

Tom Brady, Patriots
ADP: 8.01

The Case For Brady Being Overvalued: He’s going to miss a quarter of the season (possibly).

The Case Against Brady Being Overvalued: He’s freaking Tom Brady. Oh, and he has Gronk.

Verdict: This write-up is being done based on the assumption that Brady will miss the first four games of the season due to the comically overblown “Deflategate” saga. He also struggled a bit early last season but rebounded in a big way, ending up with over 4,100 passing yards and 33 touchdowns to go with only nine picks. Brady shouldn’t approach those types of numbers this season if his suspension holds up and a quarter of his year is wiped out. That’s enough games to potentially ruin a fantasy owner’s year, so taking Brady this high when other good options exist isn’t a good play.

Eli Manning, Giants
ADP: 8.11

The Case For Manning Being Overvalued: His accuracy is wildly inconsistent.

The Case Against Manning Being Overvalued: He had the best TD-INT ratio of his career last season and when in doubt can chuck the ball to Odell Beckham Jr.

Verdict: Manning threw 30 touchdowns in 2015 – the second-highest total of his career – and had over 4,400 passing yards. He also threw 14 interceptions, which was the eighth-highest total in the league but 13 fewer than his previous season. Those 14 picks were Manning’s lowest total since 2009, and twice in that time he threw 25 or more interceptions. He is capable of good things and certainly deserves a spot on fantasy rosters, but not as a potential starter. Manning should be played depending on match-up, which means a fantasy owner that takes him in the eighth round needs to grab another quarterback in the early-to-mid rounds as well, or risk having Manning torpedo their season should he revert to being an interception machine.