Odds makers in Las Vegas sports books are some of the most knowledgeable
and skilled prognosticators when it comes to predicting the score
and outcome of an NFL game. After all, it is their job to try to
make money off people betting the games. Setting the correct point
spread and over/under for each game is critical for generating the
right amount of action while not giving too much of an advantage
for potential bettors.
The betting lines posted by the Vegas sports books is an excellent
tool for daily fantasy players looking to target high scoring
games with potential breakout fantasy performances. A game with
an over/under of more than 50 points is an indication that Vegas
believes the two teams playing will be in a shootout, and can
be a nice place for DFS owners to invest their salary.
But there is more to consider that just the over/under when looking
for games and players to target. The spread tells you which team
is favored and by how much, which used in conjunction with the
over/under can tell you which players on each team you should
For instance, a high scoring game with one team favored by more
than seven points tells you that Vegas believes it will be a high
scoring contest, but they think the favored team will have a sizable
lead late and could be an excellent opportunity for the running
back of the winning team to get clock-killing carries down the
A game with a high over/under but a close spread presents an
opportunity for owners to target the quarterback and skill position
players on both teams, as Vegas bookies believe it will be a shootout.
In addition, a game with a relatively low over/under with a team
heavily favored can also present an opportunity when selecting
a quarterback for owners in head-to-head contests looking for
solid and high-floor plays.
Using the free information provided by Las Vegas sports books
is just another tool for DFS owners to utilize when setting their
lineups each week. It is especially helpful in weeks like this
where there are no clear cut shootouts. There are no games in
Week 3 with an over/under of 50 or higher, but you can still utilize
Vegas odds to identify value plays this week. Here are a few players
to consider based on the factors discussed above.
The Patriots-Jaguars betting line suggests
LeGarrette Blount may enjoy some success this Sunday.
Blount played sparingly in his return to action from a one-game
suspension, posting just four yards on two carries, while Dion
Lewis played 70 snaps and carried the ball seven times for 40
yards and a TD. Game flow and the Patriots plan to pass on the
Bills played a big part in why Blount played only seven offensive
snaps in Week 2. This may change dramatically Week 3 when the
Patriots host Jacksonville and second year quarterback Blake Bortles.
The over/under on the game is 47.5 points, with the Patriots
heavily favored by two touchdowns. Based on the theory mentioned
above, the Pats will likely be up early on the Jags and will rely
on the run game to close out the Jags in the second half. This
bodes well for Blount to see a dramatic increase in carries and
the possibility of a garbage time rushing TD or two. At just $5,900
on Fanduel, Blount is a sneaky play for owners who spend heavily
on WR and QB.
The Monday Night Football contest between the Packers and Chiefs
is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week by Vegas
odds makers with an over/under of 49 points. With the Packers
favored by only 6.5 points, those same odds makers believe that
both teams will be able to put up points in the prime time game.
Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive QB this week and for good
reason, as he has been the model of consistency with two straight
20-point performances, and the 6.5 spread suggests that he will
still be passing deep into the second half of the game. For owners
who want a part of that action but donít want to spend $9,100
on a QB, wide receiver James Jones and his $5,700 price tag is
a nice alternative. The Chiefs have struggled in the first two
weeks to stop opposing passing attacks and Jones is a clear red
zone favorite for Rodgers.
With an over/under of 48 points and a spread of just one point,
Vegas sports books view this game as a high scoring affair that
can go either way. The Steelers offense is potent and has proven
to be able to score against even the best defenses, with Big Ben,
Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown obvious plays, even at their
But looking on the other side of the football is where value
can be found this week, as Nick Foles is a cheap upside play that
could deliver big dividends for owners who go heavy on other skill
positions. Foles scored 19 points at home against the Seahawks
Week 1, leading me to believe he could put up similar numbers
at home against a Steelers defense that is much less formidable
This is a high-risk/high return play in DFS, which is the perfect
option for large tournament players looking to aim high. Going
with an inexpensive QB like Foles in an advantageous matchup gives
owners flexibility to target other high dollar WRs and RBs.