Playing a quarterback in cash against a Chicago defense that
allows the fifth-fewest points to opposing QBs may seem like a
bad play. But when you consider the fact that easy opponents have
somewhat inflated the Bears defense, Khalil Mack may not play
due to an ankle injury and Tom Brady has averaged 27 fantasy points
in his last three games, starting Brady in a week where there
are not a lot of great cash QB plays makes sense. The Bears are
much better against the run than the pass, and it would not surprise
me to see this be a sneaky shootout.
Mayfield’s stats this season would look a lot better if his wide
receiving corps could catch the ball. Owners who have played Baker
in the past may shy away from him due to that fact, but I am going
all in with a Mayfield/Jarvis Landry stack in GPP. The Bucs allow
the most points to opposing quarterbacks, and all five QBs who
have faced Tampa have posted at least 300 passing yards. It is
now or never for Mayfield and the Bucs passing game.
This game boasts the league’s top defense against the top
offense, with Drew Brees and the Saints heading to Baltimore to
take on the Ravens defense that allows 12.9 points per game. Brees
is matchup proof at home, but on the road, I only play him in
cupcake matchups with high over/under projections from Vegas.
The price is nice, but I am avoiding Brees for safer options this
week.
This may be the most unsexy pick of the year, and of course,
if you can budget for him, playing Todd Gurley against the Niners
is the no-brainer cash game play of the week. But for owners looking
for a cheap option at running back, especially if you pay up for
Thielen at wide receiver, playing Gore against a Lions team that
allows the third-most points to RBs is a high floor/ Low-risk
move. Gore has 27 carries in his last two games and Kenyon Drake
may have fallen out of favor for the short term with Adam Gase
after fumbling on the goal line last week in overtime.
I am staying in the fire for a second straight week with Cohen
after he posted 24.1 points against the Dolphins Week 6. The game
script against the Patriots has the makings for a shootout and
more Cohen than Jordan Howard. It’s a good bet that Mitchell Trubisky
will once again lean on Cohen in the passing game (14 receptions
in his last two games).
I dislike Howard this week for all of the same reasons why I
like Cohen against the Patriots. The Bears defense will have a
tough time limiting Brady and the Pats offense from scoring, which
will present a game script in which Howard will once again see
fewer than 15 carries.
All cash game players need to pay up for Thielen this week as
he is unquestionably the top play at the wide receiver position.
The target load from Cousins has Thielen on pace to set the NFL
single-season reception and target record, and Thielen will line
up in the slot against a depleted secondary with Buster Skrine
(concussion) and Trumaine Johnson (quad) out. This is an easy
20-point floor that you cannot pass up.
Brown faces off against a New Orleans team that gives up the
most points to opposing wide receivers. Although he has two duds
in his previous two games, this is the matchup that Brown owners
have been waiting for this season. Pair him with Flacco in GPP
as a stack for fantasy goodness.
While it is indeed possible that Hopkins scores a touchdown in
this game, I don’t think he is worth the risk playing against
Jalen Ramsey and a Jags defense that was just embarrassed last
week by Dallas. Pay an extra $100 for Robert Woods against the
Niners and cash in on a better matchup.
Although the Colts may get T.Y. Hilton back and Eric Ebron’s
targets may come down from the astronomical amount that the former
Lion has received over the past four games, I am sticking with
Ebron in cash games as long as his salary stays below $6k. In
cash you pay for volume and consistency, and no other tight end
besides Zach Ertz provides more value than Ebron.
With 22 targets in his last two games, including a touchdown
and 55 yards on seven catches last week against the Chargers,
Njoku has evolved into a favorite target for Baker Mayfield. The
Bucs are terrible across the board in pass defense, including
allowing the most points to opposing tight ends. Start Njoku this
week with the expectation of at least five catches for 60 yards,
with the upside of a touchdown or two.
Other options to consider - O.J. Howard vs. Cleveland
Gronk always has the upside for a monster game and fading him
is a risky proposition. With that said, the way to beat the Bears
is by attacking the secondary with wide receivers, which may require
Gronk to stay in and block more than usual. However, if Khalil
Mack is out, Gronk is no longer a fade.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Rams $3,500 @ 49ers
Well Priced with Upside: Eagles
$2,600 vs. Panthers
