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Inside The Matchup: Wk 16
12/20/07

One of the best tools that FF Today provides is the fantasy football points vs. feature and, more specifically, the remaining Strength of Schedule. Using this feature, it is my hope to augment these features and refine them even further. Over time, it should be proven in this column that different styles of players score differently against different opponents. For example, perhaps a possession receiver makes for a better play against a certain defense as opposed to a burner despite the fact that the defensive back guarding him is considered slow. Given the high number of committee running backs and teams without a clear-cut #1 receiver in the NFL, I feel this analysis will help owners with roster decisions throughout this season.

QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included.

PIT @ STL | DAL @ CAR

Steelers @ Rams
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. STL)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 37.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 34.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18/25.2/3.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7

Ben RoethlisbergerPassing Game Thoughts: Unfortunately, given the way the Steelers have played on the road this season, this game is far from a cakewalk. It should be considering the Rams just allowed their seventh multi-TD game to an opposing QB this season. Don’t be fooled though, as St. Louis’ defense has shown some real improvement over the course of the season. They haven’t allowed a QB to score more than 19.1 points since Week 10 after surrendering at least that number four times in the first nine games. However, the Rams pass defense is not quite on par with the Steelers’ pass offense. Last week vs. Jacksonville, Big Ben recorded his fourth three-(or more) TD passing performance of the season. St. Louis has routinely been beaten by the opponent’s deep threat, making a healthy Holmes a nice #3 WR play. (Chad Johnson was able to get just 60 yards on a bad field in Week 14, but Greg Jennings posted 12.6 points last week and Roddy White tallied 20.6 in Week 13.) Ward has led the team’s WRs in fantasy points in each of the past four weeks and will stay productive as long as he is seeing nine or more targets a week (just as he has in the past four games). Miller exploited a favorable matchup last week and has another one this week vs. a defense that has permitted seven TE scores.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s been made quite clear that the Steelers don’t have a problem running the ball in between the 20s, but when it is time to score, it’s time to throw. It’s hard to ever say the league’s leading rusher is having a disappointing season, but it’s highly doubtful anyone saw a 14-TD drop in Parker’s future when they drafted him this summer. That said, he still makes for a solid #2 RB, especially when you consider that he eclipsed 100 yards for the eighth time this season. Conversely, St. Louis just finished holding Ryan Grant to his lowest rushing total since becoming the starter and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. The Rams are stouter vs. the run than their 11th place ranking (allowing fantasy points to opposing RBs) indicates, so Parker may not be a solid bet for another 100. He should come close, however, and given the fact that St. Louis has surrendered 12 rushing TDs, Parker or Davenport should be able to cross the stripe this week.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 255 rush/3 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 85 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 70 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec/1 TD
Willie Parker: 90 rush/15 rec

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew Bennett/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. PIT)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 28.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.7/35.9/2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4

Passing Game Thoughts: At their best, the Rams are a team built around Jackson that just happens to have the potential for a wonderful passing game. With most of their linemen healthy last season, that was more apparent. However, that doesn’t change the notion that St. Louis will need to lean on Bulger, Holt and Bruce in this game if they want to continue the Steelers’ slide. Bulger certainly has the weapons to carry on the success Tom Brady (4 TDs) and David Garrard (3 TDs) have experienced the past two weeks, but unlike the other two QBs, the Rams would just as soon play things closer to the vest considering the state of their offensive line. And so it should go on Thursday against a defense that had allowed just one 20-point performance to the QB position prior to Week 14. Holt broke free for a TD vs. the Packers last week and continued to score on an every other week basis. To me, that just further solidifies his greatness considering he is dealing with a knee injury and has seen all three QBs on the depth chart in game action this season. Despite strong performances from opposing #2 WRs the last two weeks, Bruce and Bennett should not be used this week. Likewise, McMichael should not be used either. He has been a safety value at best most of the season and there is no indication that is going to change when the Rams will need to keep as many blockers in as possible.

Running Game Thoughts: Two 100-yard rushing performances in four weeks against the Steelers; 200-plus rushing yards in one game vs. Pittsburgh…yikes! Those facts alone subtract some of the luster from their usually dominant run defense and have to give Jackson owners hope this week, that is, for any Jackson owner who was able to withstand his five-game absence earlier in the season. Given their offensive line issues, you had better believe the Rams will give the Steelers run defense a firm test in order to keep them off of Bulger. Speaking of the line, it has been opening more holes for Jackson lately, as the stud RB has broke a 40-yard run in each of the past four games. However, it would be foolish to make any kind of rash judgments about the Steelers’ defense falling apart quite yet, so expect a bounce-back performance from them, especially considering they have surrendered 12.4 points or fewer to an individual RB in all but two games. However, Jackson’s charm to a fantasy owner is his all-around game – so he is still a solid play – but don’t expect a score from him this week.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 65 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 50 rec
Drew Bennett: 45 rec
Randy McMichael: 15 rec
Steven Jackson: 80 rush/40 rec/1 TD

Cowboys @ Panthers
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. CAR)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Colts
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Jags
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 25.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 26.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3/22.8/5.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.5

Tony RomoPassing Game Thoughts: Regardless of their performance vs. the Eagles, the only thing that should keep anybody from this passing game on your bench this week is Romo’s thumb. (If he is unable to go for some reason, I’m not so sure that Brad Johnson wouldn’t be a good play as well, although I would expect much more running in such a case.) Carolina has surrendered at least 16.5 points to the position in each of the past five weeks, mostly against some of the elite fantasy QBs in the league – which Romo is when healthy. WRs have experienced similar success against the Panthers, allowing 10.8 points to at least one WR in five straight games. Carolina has yet to see a TE quite like Witten. Prior to giving up just 2.5 points to the position the last two weeks, the combination of Donald Lee (16.9), Billy Miller (9.2) and Delanie Walker (8.1) shredded the Panthers. Witten should be in line for another standout performance

Running Game Thoughts: For whatever reason, teams just are unable to bring it every week and, in my opinion, that happened last week vs. Philly – inexcusable in any game, especially a division game. In back-to-back games in which they could/should have put away an inferior opponent early, the Cowboys RBs have compiled just 29 total rushes. Their win aside last week vs. Seattle, the Panthers still have trouble scoring while the Cowboys scored under 24 points for the first time just last week. This should mean a solid dose of the running game in the second half for Dallas, meaning Barber should get off a one-week schnide. Carolina is in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the RB position – and given the fact that Dallas should have a good working margin at the end of the third quarter – Barber figures to be a solid #2, low-end #1 RB choice for his owners this week.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 300 pass/3 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 90 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 55 rec
Jason Witten: 80 rec/2 TD
Julius Jones: 35 rush/10 rec
Marion Barber: 80 rush/1 TD/35 rec

Matt Moore/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff King
DeShaun Foster (vs. DAL)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/20/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24

Passing Game Thoughts: As great of a story as it might be if Moore becomes the second undrafted Oregon St. QB to make good in the NFL this season, there is really nothing to get all that excited about here. Smith’s last score was in Week 6 while Carter should not be seeing the fantasy playing field during Championship Week.

Running Game Thoughts: The last three opponents have all put one RB over 14.4 points against the Cowboys. Unless the Panthers commit more than half the load to DeAngelo Williams this week, I don’t look for that streak to continue. It’s almost impossible to tell what is going on with the backfield on a weekly basis in Carolina, so just like the passing game, I would avoid a running game that has failed to post consecutive double-digit performances since Weeks 3-4.

Projections:
Matt Moore: 190 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 60 rec
Drew Carter: 40 rec
Jeff King: 25 rec/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 40 rush/15 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 60 rush/20 rec