Last week we waited on the injury report to see how certain situations
were going to play out. There are a few of those this week, particularly
at wide receiver with Julio Jones (ATL) and Andre Johnson (HOU)
where the situation will clear up as we get closer to Sunday. You
hear on the advertisements for the daily websites that injuries
do not matter in this style of game. That’s true in that you
do not have to roster those injured players but as we’ve looked
at before, these injuries do in fact mean something in your daily
lineups. Because of how and when the algorithms price the players,
when a starter is out due to injury, suspension or a sudden benching,
it provides an opportunity to own a newly starting player at a backup
salary. As you read further you will see there are a few of those
cases this week. Let’s see if we can capitalize on some of
these opportunities.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 15:
- Arizona (18) at St. Louis (22.5)
- Oakland (15.5) at Kansas City (26)
- Jacksonville (15.75) at Baltimore (29.75)
- Pittsburgh (28) at Atlanta (26)
- Houston (21) at Indianapolis (28)
- Cincinnati (21.25) at Cleveland (22.75)
- Miami (20.25) at New England (27.75)
- Tampa Bay (19) at Carolina (22)
- Washington (20.25) at NY Giants (26.75)
- Green Bay (27.5) at Buffalo (23)
- Minnesota (17.75) at Detroit (17.75)
- NY Jets (22) at Tennessee (20)
- Denver (27.25) at San Diego (23.25)
- San Francisco (13.75) at Seattle (24.25)
- Dallas (25.75) at Philadelphia (29.25)
- New Orleans (28.5) at Chicago (25.5)
Bye: N/A
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Quarterbacks Drew Brees
(9,200/8,400) – Brees had a miserable game last week at
home against Carolina but look for him to rebound this week against
a Bears defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks. His Monday night game is the second highest total
on the board this week.
Matt Ryan (7,900/6,600) – Ryan is coming off his best game
of the season last Monday night. This week he returns to the Georgia
Dome where he has strong stat splits. This game figures to be
high scoring as it is one of the top totals of the week. Keep
an eye on the injury status of Julio Jones (hip) and Roddy White
(ankle) and downgrade or fade Ryan if either can not play on Sunday.
Johnny Manziel (6,700/5,900) – I am not a huge fan of the
circus that comes with Manziel, however, when my picks and money
are on the line I throw that out the window. This is a great price
for a starting QB that is expected to spark the Browns offense.
Manziel’s running ability helps justify the price of rostering
a rookie in his first official start. He’s likely to be
heavily owned.
Derek Anderson (5,000/5,000) – Anderson steps in as the
starter this week as Cam Netwon is out following his car wreck
Tuesday. If you are looking for a bargain price starting QB, Anderson
is your best option. He has a great matchup as Tampa Bay is allowing
top 10 production to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Le'Veon Bell has been on a tear the last
three weeks.
This is a week I will be paying up for the running back position
as many of the top backs have premier match ups. Le’Veon
Bell (9,600/9,600) tops my list averaging 32 touches since
LeGarrette Blount was released. He faces the Atlanta defense that
gives up the most points to the position. If you need to drop
down on the pay scale, here are a couple of other options.
Alfred
Morris (7,000/5,000) – Morris is coming off his worst game
of the season but this week gets a favorable matchup against the
Giants. Roy Helu (toe) is listed as doubtful so Morris should
see more time in the backfield and log 20 plus touches.
Fred Jackson (6,600/5,200) – Jackson should be busy this
week as Buffalo will look to run the ball against the Packers
suspect run defense. If the game gets out of hand, Jackson will
be involved in the passing game similar to last week when he was
PPR gold with 10 catches.
Latavius Murray (6,500/4,000) – Murray’s breakout
game came in his concussion shortened match against Kansas City
just three weeks ago. KC has been tough against the run this year
but not in recent weeks and if Murray receives another 25 touches,
as he did last week, he should provide nice value at his price
tag.
Chris Ivory (5,200/4,200) / Chris Johnson (5,300/3,600) –
If you are really looking to roll the dice in a tournament this
week, you could take a chance on the Jets backfield. The touches
have been close to even with Johnson tallying a somewhat higher
snap percentage. Against his former team, I would play Johnson
at the slightly lower price tag on DraftKings.
Wide Recievers
DeAndre
Hopkins (7,300/6,100) – Hopkins does not have a great history
against the Colts, however, if Andre Johnson (concussion) is out
or limited, Hopkins will need to step up. In a game where the
Texans are a 7-point underdog, there is potential for garbage
time production as well.
Keenan Allen (7,600/6,200) – After spending last week on
Revis Island, look for Allen to rebound this week against Denver.
Allen has historically done well against Denver including a 9-catch,
73-yard, touchdown performance back in Denver in Week 8.
Sammy Watkins (7,200/5,600) – The Packers have allowed
11 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last five games.
Watkins should see plenty of targets including some possible garbage
time production.
Marquess Wilson (4,500/3,000) – With the loss of Brandon
Marshall (ribs), Wilson should see a significant increase in snaps
from here on out. Take advantage of the minimum price tag for
a starting wideout in a potentially high scoring game.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (6,900/6,300) – After two terrible weeks
playing with a shoulder injury, this pick seems like a riskier
option. Against a Bears defense that is allowing top 5 production
to opposing tight ends, this high risk could produce a high reward.
Martellus Bennett (6,200/5,900) – Like Marquess Wilson
(mentioned above) Bennett should see added targets with Marshall
shut down for the season. After a lull in the middle of the season,
Bennett has come around again with 20 catches in the last two
weeks.
Antonio Gates (5,500/4,500) – Gates has not found the end
zone since doing so twice against Denver in Week 8. The Broncos
have given up top 5 fantasy production to opposing tight ends
this season.
Defenses
Arizona (5,200/3,300)
Detroit (5,400/3,600)
Baltimore (5,300/3,400)
Seattle (5,500/3,500)
Good luck this week!
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