In an effort to keep the integrity of the game late into the season,
in 2010 the NFL started scheduling more divisional games the last
three weeks of the season. While it has definitely helped keep the
interest level up across the board, there are still a few teams
that tend to mail it in or have little to play for in the final
weeks. On the other side of the ball, there are teams battling for
playoff spots or a better seed and need to pull out all the stops
for a win. You will hear players say they still want to win or deny
the fact that they are just going through the motions, but their
effort sometimes tells a different story. As you create your line-up
in the next couple of weeks, keep these factors in mind. This is
not to say you should not play any players in meaningless games,
but factor it into your decision making.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 16:
- Tennessee (18.25) at Jacksonville (21.75)
- San Diego (20.25) at San Francisco (21.25)
- Philadelphia (28.75) at Washington (21.25)
- Minnesota (17.75) at Miami (24.75)
- Green Bay (29.5) at Tampa Bay (19)
- Detroit (26.25) at Chicago (18.25)
- Atlanta (25) at New Orleans (31)
- New England (28.75) at NY Jets (18.25)
- Kansas City (21.75) at Pittsburgh (24.75)
- Cleveland (18) at Carolina (21.5)
- Baltimore (23.5) at Houston (18)
- NY Giants (19.25) at St. Louis (24.25)
- Buffalo (22.25) at Oakland (16.75)
- Indianapolis (26) at Dallas (29)
- Seattle (22) at Arizona (14.5)
- Denver (25.25) at Cincinnati (22.25)
Bye: N/A
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Quarterbacks Matt
Ryan (8,700/7,400) – Ryan has gone over 300 yards and has
thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games. This
week he travels to New Orleans in a division matchup that looks
to be a high scoring affair. In Week 1 against the Saints, Ryan
threw for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns. Even if Julio Jones does
not play, Ryan should be a safe start this week.
Matthew Stafford (8,200/7,000) – With a win this week the
Lions clinch a playoff berth. Lucky for them they face off against
a bad Bears team that doesn’t appear to be putting forth
their best effort. Some of Stafford’s best games have come
against the Bears including a 390-yard 2-touchdown performance
on Thanksgiving.
Mark Sanchez (7,500/6,200) – Sanchez has struggled mightily
the last couple of weeks but has the opportunity to rebound nicely
this week against a porous Washington secondary. Over the last
three weeks Washington has allowed 10 passing touchdowns and has
recorded just 1 interception. On the season they have allowed
the second most passing touchdowns and have the second fewest
interceptions.
Alex
Smith (7,400/5,600) – Smith is coming off his second straight
performance with over 290 yards. This week he faces a Pittsburgh
defense that gives up top 5 numbers on the season to opposing
quarterbacks and is giving up the most fantasy points to QBs over
the last five weeks. With Jamaal Charles (knee) dinged up look
for Smith to get a few more throwing opportunities. Also, I am
predicting Kansas City gets their first touchdown from a wideout
this season.
Running Backs
Miller's price makes him worth considering
in Wk 16.
Fred Jackson (6,700/5,500) – Over the last three weeks
Jackson has had 24, 18, and 23 touches including 16 catches over
that span. This week he faces the Raiders team that is the second
worst at stopping the run.
Lamar Miller (6,300/4,400) – Miller has been averaging
16 touches for 75 yards over the last five games. This week he
gets a plus matchup at home against the Vikings. Based on my projections,
Miller is the top value play at both FanDuel and DraftKings this
week.
Tre Mason (6,500/4,600) - Mason has seen a regression since his
Week 13 monster performance against Oakland but his price tag
has fell as well. This week he faces a Giants team that has been
better against the run of late. On the bright side, Mason is averaging
70% of the Rams carries since Week 9 so the volume alone will
provide the opportunity to payoff his salary.
Toby
Gerhart (4,700/3,000) – With Denard Robinson (foot) done for
the season, Gerhart will see a greater volume of touches as the
feature back. He has a great matchup against a Tennessee defense
that has given up the most yards to opposing rushers. He does
play on Thursday night so expect his ownership percentage to be
on the higher side.
Wide Recievers
Jordy Nelson (8,800/7,700) – Nelson had one of his
lowest scoring fantasy games of the season last week against a
tough Buffalo defense. Look for Jordy to rebound from his big
drop (probable 94-yard touchdown) and his off game last week against
Tampa Bay.
Randall
Cobb (8,300/7,100) – Cobb has 10 touchdowns on the year but
none since Week 10 versus Chicago. He is still averaging over
9 targets since that game versus Chicago. With Eddie Lacy dinged
up, Cobb has lined up in the backfield and received a few carries
over the last few weeks adding to his touches. The Packers have
the second highest team total this week so fire up Cobb with confidence.
Marques
Colston (6,100/4,600) – Since Brandin Cooks went to IR, Colston
has become fantasy relevant again. He has a touchdown in three
of his last four weeks. This week he is at home facing a Falcons
defense that is giving up the most yardage to opposing wideouts
over the last five weeks. The Saints have the highest projected
team total this week.
Malcom
Floyd (5,400/4,000) / Eddie
Royal (6,400/4,600) – The Chargers have a tough matchup against
the 49ers this week, however, with Keenan Allen (collarbone) out
and Ryan Mathews (ankle) questionable, they will both have plenty
of opportunities this week. Both players are more attractive in
a PPR (DraftKings) format than a standard (FanDuel) scoring.
Tight Ends
Martellus
Bennett (6,200/5,700) – Bennett will have a new quarterback
(Jimmy Clausen) under center this week making this a higher risk
play based on the unknown. The Lions have a good defense, but
have been susceptible to opposing tight ends. Over the last five
weeks the Lions have given up the most receptions and yards in
the league to opposing tight ends. Bennett should see a nice volume
as a safety valve to Clausen.
Jason Witten (5,300/4,000) – Witten is coming off of a
7-catch for 69-yard on a season high 9 target game. This week
he has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that is a top
five best team to face for opposing tight ends. Indianapolis will
look to contain Dez Bryant creating more opportunities for Witten.
Defenses
Buffalo (5,100/3,500)
Detroit (5,200/3,100)
Philadelphia (5,400/3,300)
Good luck this week!
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