One of the biggest sells of daily fantasy sports is that you do
not have to deal with the injuries that you encounter with your
season-long league. That is only partially true, especially if your
lineups mirrored some of my lineups last week. If you had the likes
of A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno or a slew of others
in your lineup, you know exactly what I am talking about. The good
thing is we are not tied to those players this week. From a fantasy
football prospective, those injuries offer opportunities to get
starter value into your lineup for a backup price. The quarterback
and running back replacements are usually the best place to find
value as they tend to step into the guaranteed workload whereas
wide receivers might have more of an opportunity, but less of a
guarantee. Sure, there is still going to be a split backfield in
certain situations, but there is quite a bit of upside compared
to the cost of those replacement players. Using a replacement or
two means you should be able to get more higher-priced studs into
your lineup. Let’s see if we can capitalize on some of these
values this week.
As always, let’s look at what the odds makers are thinking...
- Tampa Bay (19.75) at Atlanta (25.75)
- San Diego (21) at Buffalo (23.5)
- Dallas (23) at St. Louis (22)
- Washington (22) at Philadelphia (28.5)
- Houston (21.75) at NY Giants (19.75)
- Minnesota (19.75) at New Orleans (30.25)
- Tennessee (18) at Cincinnati (25)
- Baltimore (21.5) at Cleveland (20)
- Green Bay (25.5) at Detroit (27.5)
- Indianapolis (26) at Jacksonville (19.5)
- Oakland (16.25) and New England (30.25)
- San Francisco (22) at Arizona (19)
- Denver (22) at Seattle (26.5)
- Kansas City (19) at Miami (23)
- Pittsburgh (19.25) at Carolina (22.25)
- Chicago (21.5) at NY Jets (24)
Drew Brees at home is worth the premium
price.
Quarterbacks Drew
Brees (9,100; 8,900) – Brees has much better splits
at home than on the road and should carve up the Vikings defense.
Aaron Rodgers (9,800; 9,200) – Rodgers was on this list
last week and it worked out well. The Green Bay at Detroit game
is the highest total on the board and we can expect a lot of passing
fireworks on both sides.
Matthew Stafford (9,000; 8,800) – As mentioned above, this
game should be a shootout and Stafford is in a good spot at home
at a lower price than Rodgers.
Russell Wilson (8,300; 6,800) – If you are looking to save
a few dollars in your lineup, you can look to Wilson at home in
a Super Bowl rematch. You know what you are getting with Wilson
(limited passing yards, above average rushing) but the upside
potential is there this week.
Geno Smith (7,400; 6,100) – Smith has 17 rushing attempts
over the first two weeks. Along with his arm he can get you a
few points with his legs as well.
Running Backs
This is the spot where you will find some outstanding value
due to the injuries sustained last week.
LeSean McCoy (9,200; 7,800) – McCoy has a history of tearing
apart Washington. Even with Sproles taking some touches, there
should be plenty of opportunities for McCoy as well. On a side
note, Sproles will be highly owned after his primetime performance
and would be a good fade in cash games.
Knile
Davis (7,000; 6,200) – Davis is not quite the replacement
value that you see elsewhere, but he will get a healthy workload
if Charles is indeed out this week.
Kansas City
has been tight lipped on the severity of Jamaal Charles’
ankle injury. He has been practicing on a limited basis this week
and is now questionable. Knile Davis is still a great play if
Charles is not able to go, but he will see a smaller workload
if Charles is active.
Donald Brown (6,200; 3,500) – Woodhead will see plenty
of touches as well but for the $3,500 at DraftKings, you have
plenty bang for your buck.
Terrance West (5,800; 5,600) – West should be in line for
close to 20 touches this week. Baltimore has not given up a rushing
touchdown yet this year but for the volume and price, I still
like West and a touchdown would be a bonus.
Khiry
Robinson (4,700; 3,900) – Robinson should be the main beneficiary
to the Ingram injury. While he probably will not get a full time
workload, he should get double-digit carries and some goaline
work.
Alfred
Blue (4,500; 3,000) – Arian Foster has been limited
in practice and is listed as questionable. If he is out, Blue
would be a great add at minimum salary.
Wide Recievers
Jordy
Nelson (8,600; 8,400) - Jordy leads the league with 30 targets
and 18 receptions in the first two weeks. He should see more of
the same in the shootout in Detroit. If you rather stack Stafford
with Calvin Johnson (9,000; 8,900), that should work out well
for you too.
Andrew Hawkins (5,300; 5,000) – Hawkins has 22 targets
and 14 catches over the first two weeks. He has yet to find the
end zone but is getting a nice volume of work.
James Jones (5,500; 5,700) – Jones has found pay dirt in
each of the first two weeks. Oakland should be playing catch up
most of the day so Jones should see some volume.
Greg
Jennings (5,500; 4,200) – The Saints have given up the second-most
points to wide outs this season. There will be quite a few people
on Cordarrelle Patterson making Jennings a nice contrarian play.
Mohamed
Sanu (6,100; 5,300) – Stepping into the number one receiver
role in Cincinnati, Sanu should see more opportunities. He will
be a boom or bust play this week.
A.J. Green practiced
this week and looks like he will be on the field this Sunday,
making Sanu less attractive.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (8,400; 8,000) – Again this week, I
will be paying up at tight end. Graham is the elite option at
home against Minnesota.
Greg
Olsen (6,100; 5,600) – The Steelers gave up two touchdowns
to Owen Daniels last week. Olsen is the leading receiver in Carolina.
Larry
Donnell (4,900; 4,000) – Donnell is another tight end leading
his team in receiving and he is still at a reasonable price point.
Jared
Cook (5,200; 3,400) – Cook has burned many people
in the past but he is a sneaky tournament play against Dallas
who has given up 14 receptions, 186 yards and 3 touchdowns to
tight ends in the first two weeks.
Defenses
Houston (5,200; 3,400) – The Texans are a pricey
option but they should have a field day against Eli Manning and
company.
Cleveland (4,700; 2,900) – The Browns should have some
opportunities against a pass happy Ravens team.
New Orleans (4,600; 3200) – The Saints are not the best
option, but should be decent for the price.
Good luck this week.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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