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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Dose: Week 4
Bye-Bye Bye Worries
9/25/14


Last week I mentioned injuries as one of the biggest draws used by the daily fantasy sports sites as to why you would want to be drafting a new team each week. Another is the concept of bye weeks. Take a look at your season long roster. Even if you have been able to avoid the injury bug, you might be stuck starting a bottom tier quarterback or WR5 this week because there are six teams on bye. Depending on your draw, you might be looking at a 30% chance of winning with your season-long team this week. Good thing you have found DFS and will still have something to realistically cheer for on Sunday. The only effect bye weeks have on daily fantasy leagues is the ownership percentages of some players might be a bit higher due to fewer options. If you have ever played with a truncated schedule (early only, afternoon only, primetime games, etc) you might have experienced this already. Those higher percentages do not mean a whole lot in the cash games as you still want to have solid players with a high floor. The percentages play out a little bit more in the tournaments as you try to find some of the high-scoring contrarian plays. There are still 26 teams to choose from so these gems can still be found.

Before we look into the players that will help you this week, let’s check how the odds makers see the games playing out.

  • N.Y. Giants (21.25) at Washington (24.75)
  • Miami (22.5) vs. Oakland (18.5) in London
  • Green Bay (25.75) at Chicago (24.25)
  • Buffalo (19) at Houston (22)
  • Tennessee (19.25) at Indianapolis (26.75)
  • Carolina (18.75) at Baltimore (21.75)
  • Detroit (23.25) at N.Y. Jets (21.75)
  • Tampa Bay (18.75) at Pittsburgh (26.25)
  • Jacksonville (15.75) at San Diego (28.75)
  • Philadelphia (22.5) at San Francisco (28)
  • Atlanta (25) at Minnesota (22)
  • New Orleans (28) at Dallas (25)
  • New England (24.25) at Kansas City (20.75)

On bye: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis, Arizona, Seattle

Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers will be an attractive play in DFS this week.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (9,200/9,300) – Brees is on the road where his splits are not the best, and he did not do as well as expected last week at home. Do not let that scare you off though as Dallas has given up six passing touchdowns this year and Brees has a high floor.

Colin Kaepernick (8,100/7,600) – Kaepernick is at home versus the second worst defense against quarterbacks in a game that is projected to be one of the highest scoring of the week.

Philip Rivers (8,400/7,700) – Rivers is at home versus the worst defense against quarterbacks. You might think San Diego will shift to a conservative run approach if they get out to a big lead, but look what Luck did against the Jaguars last week. San Diego has the highest projected team total this week.

Teddy Bridgewater (5,900/5,700) – If you are looking to get tricky in a tournament, Bridgewater at home against the Falcons is a nice cheap option.

Running Backs

Matt Forte (8,600/7,800) – Forte has played 97% of the offensive snaps this season. The Packers have the fifth-worst defense versus running backs. If you are looking for a chalk play, Forte is a good option.

Lamar Miller (6,900/6,200) – With Moreno still on the shelf due to injury, look for Miller to get 20 plus touches against a weak Oakland defense.

Donald Brown (6,300/5,400) – Brown is a great volume play this week with Mathews and Woodhead both out with injuries.

DeAngelo Williams (5,700/3,900) – Williams (thigh) is coming back from injury, as Jonathan Stewart (knee) and Mike Tolbert (leg) will be sitting out. He does not have the best match up against Baltimore but he should see a good amount of volume with Cam Newton also dinged up. At this price he is a decent value play.

Khiry Robinson (4,900/4,800) – Robinson disappointed us last week with only 69 yards but he did have 18 carries. With that volume against the Dallas defense, the price is right.

Wide Recievers

Antonio Brown (8,400/7,800) – Brown is a PPR monster against one of the worst defenses versus wideouts. If you have the money, Brown should treat you right.

Michael Crabtree (7,000/6,400) – Crabtree gets a favorable matchup in a game with the highest projected totals. With Vernon Davis most likely back, Crabtree may not see the 11 touches he did last week but he will have plenty of opportunities.

Vincent Jackson (6,800/5,100) – Jackson does not have the most favorable matchup but with Glennon under center he should see quite a few targets and maybe even another garbage time touchdown.

Brandin Cooks (6,200/5,300) – Cooks has seen the most offensive snaps of any Saints wideout and will benefit from a good matchup against Dallas.

Steve Smith (6,100/5,600) – Smith has been Flacco’s favorite target this year and he should benefit from the loss of Pitta.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (8,200/7,500) – Again this week, I will be paying up for Graham wherever I have the cap space. Dallas is dreadful versus the tight end.

Martellus Bennett (6,000/5,700) – Bennett is second in the league in targets, catches and touchdowns for the tight end position. At a nice price drop from Graham, Bennett is an attractive play.

Antonio Gates (5,800/4,400) – Coming off a 1-catch performance, Gates should bounce back nicely against Jacksonville and is at a decent price.

Defenses

Detroit (4,700/3,100)
Washington (4,500/3,000) – if you are playing with Thursday games
Miami (5,200/3,100)

Good luck this week!

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