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Prediction: Patriots 30, Colts 27
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today

Player Rankings and Projections

Indianapolis Colts
Rank  Player Projections
QB 1 Andrew Luck Pass: 320, 2 TD Rush: 20, 0
RB 3 Dan Herron Rush: 55, 0 TD Rec: 8-50, 0
RB 8 Zurlon Tipton Rush: 15, 0 TD Rec: 1-5, 0
RB 12 Trent Richardson Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
WR 1 T.Y. Hilton Rec: 6-85, 1 TD
WR 8 Hakeem Nicks Rec: 2-35, 0 TD
WR 10 Donte Moncrief Rec: 2-30, 0 TD
WR 12 Reggie Wayne Rec: 2-25, 0 TD
TE 2 Dwayne Allen Rec: 3-30, 1 TD
TE 4 Coby Fleener Rec: 4-40, 0 TD
K 3 Adam Vinatieri FG: 2/2 XP: 3/3
DEF 4 Defense / ST  
 
New England Patriots
Rank  Player Projections
QB 3 Tom Brady Pass: 280, 2 TD Rush: 5, 0
RB 2 LeGarrette Blount Rush: 75, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
RB 5 Shane Vereen Rush: 25, 0 TD Rec: 4-25, 0
RB 10 Jonas Gray Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
WR 4 Brandon LaFell Rec: 4-50, 1 TD
WR 5 Julian Edelman Rec: 7-80, 0 TD
WR 9 Danny Amendola Rec: 2-30, 0 TD
TE 1 Rob Gronkowski Rec: 9-85, 1 TD
K 2 Stephen Gostkowski FG: 3/3 XP: 3/3
DEF 2 Defense / ST  

Game Notes

Colts Club has reached postseason for 3rd straight season under head coach CHUCK PAGANO & 12 of past 13 seasons overall. Clinched AFC South title for 9th time since 2003... QB Andrew Luck is 1st player in NFL history to pass for 250+ yards in each of 1st 5 career playoff games. Passed for 331 yards & 2 TDs in only playoff meeting vs. NE. Led NFL with 40 TDs & became 8th player with 40+ TDs in season. Since entering NFL in 2012, has 12,957 yards, most of any NFL player in 1st 3 seasons, & 86 TD passes, 2nd-most in player's 1st 3 years (HOFer DAN MARINO, 98). 1 of 2 Super Bowl era starting QBs to win at least 10 games in each of 1st 3 NFL seasons (RUSSELL WILSON)... In 2 career playoff games, RB DANIEL HERRON has 236 scrimmage yards (119 rush, 117 rec.) & 2 rush TDs. Aims for 3rd playoff in row with rush TD. Led team with 95 scrimmage yards last week vs. Broncos... WR T.Y. Hilton averages 113.6 receiving yards per game in playoffs (568 in 5 games) with 2 TDs. In past 14 (incl. playoffs), has 76 rec. for 1,334 yards with 7 TDs, incl. 7 100-yard games. Led team with career-high 1,345 receiving yards, joining MARVIN HARRISON & Reggie Wayne as only players in club history with 1,300+ yard receiving season. WR Reggie Wayne ranks 2nd all-time with 93 career postseason catches (HOFer JERRY RICE, 151). Has 1,254 career receiving yards in playoffs & needs 62 yards to surpass CLIFF BRANCH (1,289) & HOFer MICHAEL IRVIN (1,315) for 2nd all-time. In 6 career playoff games, WR Hakeem Nicks has 33 catches for 527 yards & 5 TDs, incl. 15-yard TD last week vs. Den. TEs Dwayne Allen (8) & Coby Fleener (8) are 1st TEs in club history with 8+ TD catches each in same season. In last reg.-sea. meeting, Fleener had 7 catches for 144 yards (20.6 avg.)... LB D'QWELL JACKSON led AFC with 140 tackles. Rookie LB Jonathan Newsome led AFC rookies with 6.5 sacks in 2014. S Mike Adams led team with career-high 5 INTs this season. CB Vontae Davis tied career-high with 4 INTs (2009, 2011)... K Adam Vinatieri is NFL's all-time playoff leader in career points (233) & made FGs (56), incl. 20 points & 5 FGs in 2014 postseason... Club had 5 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (QB Luck, WR Hilton, CB Davis, K Vinatieri, P PAT MC AFEE).

Patriots With win, Pats will advance to 8th Super Bowl in club history (3-4). NE has 7-4 record in AFC Championship Games (4th consecutive Championship Game appearance). 1st team in NFL history to win 11 division titles in 12 seasons. Club is 16-4 (.800) at home in postseason, trailing only Seahawks (10-2, .833) for 2nd-best all-time (min. 10 games). Have won 17 of past 18 at home (incl. playoffs)... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (19) have most postseason wins by head coach-QB duo... Belichick (20) is tied with HOFer TOM LANDRY for most playoff wins all-time... Brady's 19 postseason wins are most by QB in NFL history. Last week, Brady (46) surpassed BRETT FAVRE (44) & HOFer JOE MONTANA (45) for most career TDs in NFL playoff history. Brady has most completions (623), attempts (1,000) in NFL playoff history. Brady (6,791) needs 10 passing yards to eclipse PEYTON MANNING (6,800) for most career passing yards in postseason history. Has 19-8 (.704) playoff record, 3rd-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Brady is 13-3 (.813) as starter at home in postseason. Has 12 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Posted 4 total TDs last week (3 pass, 1 rush), incl. 5th career playoff rush TD... In 5 career playoff games, RB Shane Vereen has 333 scrimmage yards (114 rush, 219) with 3 total TDs (1 rush, 2 rec.). Averages 8.6 scrimmage yards per att./rec. in postseason. In only career start vs. Ind. (10/3/11 with TB), RB LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards & TD... TE Rob Gronkowski led team with 12 TD catches in 2014, tied for most among NFL TEs. 1 of 2 TEs in NFL history with 4 career 10-TD seasons (ANTONIO GATES). In 5 career home playoff games, has 26 catches for 405 yards & 4 TDs, incl. 7 catches for 108 yards & TD last week. Aims for 5th in row overall (incl. playoffs) with TD catch. WR Julian Edelman led team with 92 catches in 2014 & joined TROY BROWN & WES WELKER as only Patriots with consecutive 90-catch seasons. Last week, became 1st player in NFL playoff history with 4+ catches (8) & TD pass in same game, incl. 1st career NFL TD pass (51-yarder to Danny Amendola)... LB Jamie Collins led team with career-high 115 tackles. 1 of 3 NFL players with 4+ sacks (4) & 2+ INTs (2) in 2014. LB Rob Ninkovich led team with 8 sacks in 2014, 3rd consecutive season with 8 sacks... Club had 5 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, TE Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, K Stephen Gostkowski, ST MATTHEW SLATER).


Results and Schedule

Indianapolis Colts
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2014-09-07 DEN A L 24-31 -7
2 2014-09-15 PHI H L 27-30 -3
3 2014-09-21 JAC A W 44-17 +27
4 2014-09-28 TEN H W 41-17 +24
5 2014-10-05 BAL H W 20-13 +7
6 2014-10-09 HOU A W 33-28 +5
7 2014-10-19 CIN H W 27-0 +27
8 2014-10-26 PIT A L 34-51 -17
9 2014-11-03 NYG A W 40-24 +16
10   Bye      
11 2014-11-16 NE H L 20-42 -22
12 2014-11-23 JAC H W 23-3 +20
13 2014-11-30 WAS H W 49-27 +22
14 2014-12-07 CLE A W 25-24 +1
15 2014-12-14 HOU H W 17-10 +7
16 2014-12-21 DAL A L 7-42 -35
17 2014-12-28 TEN A W 27-10 +17
WC 2015-01-04 CIN H W 26-10 +16
DP 2015-01-11 DEN A W 24-13 +11
CC 2015-01-18 NE A L 7-45 -38
   

New England Patriots
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2014-09-07 MIA A L 20-33 -13
2 2014-09-14 MIN A W 30-7 +23
3 2014-09-21 OAK H W 16-9 +7
4 2014-09-29 KC A L 14-41 -27
5 2014-10-05 CIN H W 43-17 +26
6 2014-10-12 BUF A W 37-22 +15
7 2014-10-16 NYJ H W 27-25 +2
8 2014-10-26 CHI H W 51-23 +28
9 2014-11-02 DEN H W 43-21 +22
10   Bye      
11 2014-11-16 IND A W 42-20 +22
12 2014-11-23 DET H W 34-9 +25
13 2014-11-30 GB A L 21-26 -5
14 2014-12-07 SD A W 23-14 +9
15 2014-12-14 MIA H W 41-13 +28
16 2014-12-21 NYJ A W 17-16 +1
17 2014-12-28 BUF H L 9-17 -8
WC   Bye      
DP 2015-01-10 BAL H W 35-31 +4
CC 2015-01-18 IND H W 45-7 +38

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts
Out  OLB Robert Mathis (achilles-tendon)
Questionable  FS Mike Adams (thigh)
 CB Vontae Davis (knee)
 CB Greg Toler (groin)
 OLB Erik Walden (knee)
IR  RB Vick Ballard (achilles-tendon, 8/26)
 RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle, 11/18)
 DE Fili Moala (knee, 6/11)
   

New England Patriots
Questionable  CB Kyle Arrington (groin)
 CB Brandon Browner (knee)
 CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder)
 WR Aaron Dobson (foot)
 SLB Dont'a Hightower (ankle)
 DE Chris Jones (elbow)
Probable  WR Danny Amendola (groin)
 QB Tom Brady (ankle)
 QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
 SLB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder)
 WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder)
 RB Shane Vereen (groin)
IR  CB Alfonzo Dennard (hamstring, 12/27)
 WR Aaron Dobson (hamstring, 12/4)
 DE Dominique Easley (knee, 12/17)
 TE Rob Gronkowski (knee, 12/9/2013)
 MLB Jerod Mayo (knee, 10/16)
 MLB Jerod Mayo (shoulder, 10/16/2013)
 RB Stevan Ridley (knee, 10/16)
 DT Vince Wilfork (achilles-tendon, 10/3/2013)

Offense Stats Comparison

  IND
 Offense 
NE
 Offense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points for 23.0 23.8 22.0 NE
Rushing yards 98.3 92.5 112.6 IND
Rushing yards per attempt 3.95 3.96 4.24 NE
Completion % 60.0% 63.8% 62.2% NE
Passing yards 256.3 244.8 227.7 IND
Passing yards per completion 11.51 9.81 10.65 IND
Passing yards per attempt 6.91 6.26 6.63 IND
Interceptions 1.0 0.8 0.9 NE
Fumbles lost 1.5 0.0 0.6 NE
Sacks allowed 2.0 1.5 2.6 NE
3rd down conversions 37.8% 44.4% 38.5% NE
4th down conversions 40.0% 60.0% 46.9% NE
Time of possession 28:44 28:39 30:03 IND
  Defense Stats Comparison

  IND
 Defense 
NE
 Defense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points against 17.8 15.0 22.0 NE
Rushing yards 114.8 96.8 112.6 NE
Rushing yards per attempt 3.78 3.58 4.24 NE
Completion % 57.7% 57.9% 62.2% IND
Passing yards 163.3 226.8 227.7 IND
Passing yards per completion 9.94 11.44 10.65 IND
Passing yards per attempt 5.74 6.63 6.63 IND
INT return 0.5 0.8 0.9 NE
Fumble recoveries 1.0 0.0 0.6 IND
Sacks 2.5 2.8 2.6 NE
3rd down conversions 31.0% 36.8% 38.5% IND
4th down conversions 11.1% 55.6% 46.9% IND
Time of possession 31:16 31:21 30:03 IND

Special Teams Stats Comparison

   IND   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Yards per punt return 6.6 8.8 9.2 NE
Yards per kick return 32.0 22.0 23.7 IND
Yards allowed per punt return 8.7 7.9 9.2 NE
Yards allowed per kick return 23.8 22.6 23.7 NE
  Misc Stats Comparison

   IND   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Penalties 6.8 5.3 6.5 NE
Penalty yards 48.5 53.5 54.4 IND

Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2014 season after deducting the best and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.

Weather


Team vs. Team History

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
 Season   Week   Date   Vis   Home   Score   Winner 
2000 6 2000-10-08 IND NE 16-24 NE
2000 8 2000-10-22 NE IND 23-30 IND
2001 3 2001-09-30 IND NE 13-44 NE
2001 6 2001-10-21 NE IND 38-17 NE
2003 13 2003-11-30 NE IND 38-34 NE
2004 1 2004-09-09 IND NE 24-27 NE
2004 DP 2005-01-16 IND NE 3-20 NE
2005 9 2005-11-07 IND NE 40-21 IND
2006 9 2006-11-05 IND NE 27-20 IND
2006 CF 2007-01-21 NE IND 34-38 IND
2007 9 2007-11-04 NE IND 24-20 NE
2008 9 2008-11-02 NE IND 15-18 IND
2009 10 2009-11-15 NE IND 34-35 IND
2010 11 2010-11-21 IND NE 28-31 NE
2011 13 2011-12-04 IND NE 24-31 NE
2012 11 2012-11-18 IND NE 24-59 NE
2013 DP 2014-01-11 IND NE 22-43 NE
2014 11 2014-11-16 NE IND 42-20 NE

Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff CF = Conference Final