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Regular Season, Updated: 7/19/18


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Legend:   Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk   ADP = Average Draft Position
FF Today Standard Scoring: Review Scoring
 Antonio Brown, PIT (Bye: 7)
1
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 186   DOB: 1988-07-10   Age: 30
College: Central Michigan   Draft: 2010 Round 6 (26) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015PIT16136 1,834 10 3 28 0 246.2 15.4
2016PIT15106 1,284 12 3 9 0 201.3 13.4
2017PIT14101 1,533 9 0 0 0 207.3 14.8
2018 (Projected)PIT 101 1,366 10 0 0 0 196.6  

Outlook: For my money Brown is still the consensus No.1 receiver off the board. Brown has annually been both one of the most consistent and high impact fantasy players for the past five years, as he's a multi-format all-star, and player that can carry a fantasy team. His receptions have come down a bit from the astronomical numbers of 2014 and 2015, but the yardage and touchdown totals have remained elite. Barring injury to himself or Big Ben, Brown should have no problem meeting expectations in this offense. He has a few other pass catchers that defenses at least have to respect, and continues to use his elite quickness to gain separation at all levels of the field, even if the deep bombs down the field might suffer some regression. I'm not sure how much music is left in the symphony he and Big Ben have created together, but put your trust in Brown while it lasts.


 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (Bye: 10)
2
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 205   DOB: 1992-06-06   Age: 26
College: Clemson   Draft: 2013 Round 1 (27) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015HOU16111 1,521 11 0 0 0 218.1 13.6
2016HOU1678 954 4 0 0 0 119.4 7.5
2017HOU1596 1,378 13 0 0 0 215.8 14.4
2018 (Projected)HOU 92 1,266 11 0 0 0 192.6  

Outlook: Hopkins is proof that volume is everything for wide receivers. Whether it was Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, or T.J. Yates, Hopkins was a valuable wide receiver because he was the most targeted receiver in the NFL despite sitting in Week 17.

Hopkins out-produced the WR12 average during 10 of his 15 games despite playing weeks 9 through 16 without Watson. With that type of consistency, he secured his place at the top of drafts entering the 2018 season without any concern about quarterback play.

Hopkins has an ADP of 10th overall as the 2nd wide receiver. Antonio Brown slightly outperformed Hopkins on a per game basis, but with his volume, there's no reason to doubt whether his production is sustainable. For drafters near the Round1/2 turn, Hopkins is a safe option.


 Julio Jones, ATL (Bye: 8)
3
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1989-02-03   Age: 29
College: Alabama   Draft: 2011 Round 1 (6) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015ATL16136 1,871 8 0 0 0 235.1 14.7
2016ATL1483 1,409 6 0 0 0 176.9 12.6
2017ATL1688 1,444 3 1 15 0 163.9 10.2
2018 (Projected)ATL 96 1,517 6 0 0 0 187.7  

Outlook: It's strange to say that a wide receiver who finished as the WR6 was a letdown, but for most, Julio Jones was just that. While his big weeks were huge, his lack of scoring limited his upside for the majority of the season.

The biggest concern with Jones' season is how drastically Week 12 changed the final outcome. Even removing 20 points from his 38.8 point week (which still would have been his best week of the year), Jones falls from WR6 to WR15. So rather than being a WR1 for teams, Jones produced in the range of a WR2 and inflated his final points with an astronomical week.

But there are some positive takeaways. Particularly in standard scoring, you're chasing touchdowns, but Jones managed a top 10 finish with only 3 TDs for the season indicating that he has high-end value even if touchdowns don't follow. He ranked 3rd among all receivers in total air yards and he had 19 total targets inside the 20 yards line. Jones can be drafted as the WR4 and has an ADP in the 2nd round. At that price, if he can score a few extra touchdowns, he could be a steal.


 Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Bye: 9)
4
Height: 5’11”   Weight: 198   DOB: 1992-11-05   Age: 25
College: Louisiana State   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NYG1596 1,450 13 1 3 0 223.3 14.9
2016NYG16101 1,367 10 1 9 0 197.6 12.4
2017NYG425 302 3 1 8 0 49.0 12.3
2018 (Projected)NYG 92 1,275 9 2 16 0 183.1  

Outlook: Beckham Jr. suffered a pedal ankle fracture in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers, forcing the former 2014 first-round pick from LSU to miss the remainder of the 2017 season. Before suffering the injury, Beckham Jr. was on pace to deliver nearly identical numbers from his 2016 campaign in which he finished with 101 catches for 1367 yards and ten touchdowns as the No. 5 ranked wide receiver.

At just 25 years of age, there is little evidence to suggest that Beckham Jr. will not fully recover from his injury and regain his record-setting form from the first three seasons of his career. The addition of second-overall pick Saquon Barkley should give an otherwise anemic rushing attack a much-needed boost that could equate to more success in the passing game. Also, the Giants made great strides in improving their offensive line with the addition of free agent left tackle Nate Solder from New England, and the selection of guard Will Hernadez with the 34th pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

Doubts surrounding Beckham Jr.'s ability to recover from injury fully and contract dispute will likely push the star receiver to the back end of the first round in most redraft leagues. Although those concerns have some validity, the improvements to the Giants offense and the fact that Beckham Jr. has never finished outside the top-5 in WR make him arguably the best value in the first round.


 Michael Thomas, NO (Bye: 6)
5
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 212   DOB: 1994-06-16   Age: 24
College: Ohio State   Draft: 2016 Round 2 (16) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NO1592 1,137 9 0 0 0 167.7 11.2
2017NO16104 1,245 5 0 0 0 154.5 9.7
2018 (Projected)NO 97 1,188 7 0 0 0 160.8  

Outlook: To his owners, Michael Thomas was the boring but reliable WR1in 2017. He only managed 5 touchdowns and despite receiving over 1,200 yards, he only had double digit fantasy points in six of his regular season games. His three consecutive double digit games from weeks 13 to 15 undoubtedly helped his owners, but his season can be described as one with a limited weekly ceiling.

Thomas stands as the primary beneficiary if the passing game returns to previous years' volume. He led the team with 149 targets, but with the offseason moves, there will likely need to be more team volume for Thomas to stay around the 150 target range. Still, he remains a safe floor play for your wide receiving corps likely to go in round 2 of most fantasy drafts.


 Davante Adams, GB (Bye: 7)
6
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 212   DOB: 1992-12-24   Age: 25
College: Fresno State   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (21) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015GB1250 483 1 0 0 0 54.3 4.5
2016GB1675 997 12 0 0 0 171.7 10.7
2017GB1474 885 10 0 0 0 148.5 10.6
2018 (Projected)GB 85 1,126 9 0 0 0 166.6  

Outlook: It took some time, but after two top-15 fantasy seasons, Davante Adams has arrived as a legit fantasy star. It gets better in 2018, as Adams ascends to the de facto No.1 receiver as Jordy Nelson moves on to the Raiders. The biggest positive I can glean from his 2017 season is he was able to produce even with Brett Hundley leading the offense (Adams had four games of 80+ yards and 4 of his 10 touchdowns after Aaron Rodgers went down). Adams is young (25) coming off two great seasons, and has the league's best pure passer back healthy. He showed extreme toughness last year coming off a devastating hit against Pittsburgh that almost killed him. He's got size, speed, and most importantly, the trust of his QB. I think a career year is on tap for Adams (1200 yards and 10 touchdowns?), with a legit chance to finish as a top-5 fantasy receiver.


 Keenan Allen, LAC (Bye: 8)
7
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 210   DOB: 1992-04-27   Age: 26
College: California   Draft: 2013 Round 3 (14) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015SD867 725 4 0 0 0 96.5 12.1
2016SD16 63 0 0 0 0 6.3 6.3
2017LAC16102 1,393 6 2 9 1 182.2 11.4
2018 (Projected)LAC 90 1,206 6 0 0 0 156.6  

 A.J. Green, CIN (Bye: 9)
8
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 207   DOB: 1988-07-31   Age: 29
College: Georgia   Draft: 2011 Round 1 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015CIN1686 1,297 10 0 0 0 189.7 11.9
2016CIN1066 964 4 0 0 0 120.4 12.0
2017CIN1675 1,078 8 0 0 0 155.8 9.7
2018 (Projected)CIN 74 1,056 8 0 0 0 153.6  

 Doug Baldwin, SEA (Bye: 7)
9
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 189   DOB: 1988-09-21   Age: 29
College: Stanford   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015SEA1678 1,069 14 0 0 0 190.9 11.9
2016SEA1694 1,128 7 3 2 0 155.0 9.7
2017SEA1675 991 8 2 -8 0 146.3 9.1
2018 (Projected)SEA 80 1,046 8 0 0 0 152.6  

Outlook: Doug Baldwin didn't come into the NFL with much hype but he has blossomed into one of the league's most consistent pass catchers. While he fell nine yards short of his third-straight 1,000-yard season, Baldwin has now caught 75 or more passes in three straight seasons and looks to be in line to be targeted more heavily than ever now that both Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham are gone.

He's the only player on the roster who has shown consistent chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson and that will certainly play a role when deciding who he's going to throw the football to, particularly early in the season when he's getting acclimated with his new pass catchers. Baldwin lacks the physical presence to be a true elite WR1 for fantasy purposes but he's a very safe WR2 who has weekly WR1 upside.


 Mike Evans, TB (Bye: 5)
10
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1993-08-21   Age: 24
College: Texas A&M   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015TB1474 1,208 3 0 0 0 138.8 9.9
2016TB1696 1,321 12 0 0 0 204.1 12.8
2017TB1571 1,001 5 0 0 0 130.1 8.7
2018 (Projected)TB 78 1,082 7 0 0 0 150.2  

 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (Bye: 9)
11
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 218   DOB: 1983-08-31   Age: 34
College: Pittsburgh   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015ARI16109 1,215 9 0 0 0 175.5 11.0
2016ARI16108 1,028 6 1 1 0 138.9 8.7
2017ARI16109 1,156 6 0 0 0 151.6 9.5
2018 (Projected)ARI 101 1,089 7 0 0 0 150.9  

Outlook: Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who will be 35 years old heading into the 2018 season, is coming off of three straight 100-catch seasons. Fitzgerald has a great connection with fellow veteran quarterback Carson Palmer who started all but one game in 2015 and 2016 alongside Fitzgerald. However, Fitzgerald continued to produce in 2017 even with a dumpster fire of quarterbacks after Palmer went down with an injury. In the final nine games of the 2017 season, with the likes of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert behind center, Fitzgerald saw five games with 8 or more receptions and he never had fewer than three catches in a game. This essentially proved, once again, that Fitzgerald remains essentially quarterback-proof even in his advanced age.

This season should be a better quarterback situation for Fitzgerald at least from a talent perspective. The team is expected to begin with veteran Sam Bradford behind center, who profiles as practically the perfect match for a player like Fitzgerald. Bradford ranked 34th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in percentage of down-field pass attempts in 2015 for the Eagles and was again near the bottom of the league for the Vikings in 2016. This bodes well for Fitzgerald, who has transitioned into one of the leagues' most reliable and dominant slot receivers in his elder years.

There is some concern for Fitzgerald that the new Cardinals offense might not feature him quite as heavily as we've seen in recent seasons under Bruce Arians, but offensive coordinator Mike McCoy is a veteran, who typically molds his offense around getting the ball in the hands of his best playmakers. For the Cardinals, that's Fitzgerald and running back David Johnson. Age is obviously a bit of a worry but Fitz has proven to be one of the most durable wide receivers in the history of the game, having missed just eight games in his 14-year NFL career. He might not present the upside that he once did, but Fitzgerald is an extraordinarily reliable WR2 in fantasy and could make for one of the best value picks given his relatively low ADP.


 Amari Cooper, OAK (Bye: 7)
12
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 211   DOB: 1994-06-18   Age: 24
College: Alabama   Draft: 2015 Round 1 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015OAK1672 1,070 6 3 -3 0 142.7 8.9
2016OAK1682 1,149 5 1 0 0 144.9 9.1
2017OAK1448 680 7 1 4 0 110.4 7.9
2018 (Projected)OAK 76 1,066 7 0 0 0 148.6  

Outlook: The top-drafted fantasy asset in Oakland is once again wide receiver Amari Cooper despite him being among the biggest busts in fantasy this past season. Cooper was almost astonishingly unproductive on a per-target basis in 2017 as he caught just 50 percent of the passes that came his way, which put him among the very worst receivers in the league. It's worth noting that Cooper might have not been healthy at all in 2017, as he started the season on the injury report for the first six weeks with a knee sprain, then suffered a sprained ankle and a concussion in Week 12. Cooper also has earned the label as a pass dropper and there's really no denying that he's had a ton of drops in his young career, but that can statistic also be a bit misleading. Cooper actually dropped four passes in one game (Week 1) in 2017, but he ended up getting targeted 13 times, which still allowed him to produce a quality fantasy day with five catches for 62 yards and a touchdown.

With 2017 in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to 2018 where Cooper has serious potential to lead all NFL players in targets. Coach Gruden has made it well known that he is planning to use Cooper as the "main vein" of the Oakland passing game. With outside receivers Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant joining the team, the Raiders could also end up utilizing Cooper more in the slot on three-receiver sets. He's produced some of his biggest games when he's seen increased snaps out of the slot, and research shows that targets out of the slot are actually substantially more effective than those out wide throughout the league, so Cooper could be in for a big jump in efficiency this season. Even if he's still subpar in catch rate, though, target volume alone could lead to Cooper being a high-end WR2 or even a low-end WR1 this season.

His draft cost is substantially lower this season than it has been in either of his past two seasons, so there is some upside in taking Cooper where he's currently going in fantasy drafts and there really shouldn't be much downside, provided that he stays healthy. After turning 24 years old this past June, Cooper is still not even near his prime as an NFL wide receiver. He's only six months older than rookie Calvin Ridley but he already has two 1000-yard NFL seasons under his belt. He struggled this past season, but so did the entire Raiders offense, including QB Derek Carr who himself dealt with a back injury throughout the season. Don't let an injury-plagued 2017 change your perception of this talented young playmaker who could break out as an elite fantasy WR1 this season if everything clicks in Oakland.