The running back class for the NFL Draft '03 is only an average
group this spring despite the addition of several quality underclassmen
runners. The senior running back class was one of the weakest groups
over the past decade and failed to produce a premier back despite
the presence of 2000 yard rusher Larry Johnson. This class saw the
only true blue chip prospect back for this draft fall to an injury
in January when underclassman Willis McGahee blew out a knee in
his final game vs Ohio St. in the national title clash. Surprisingly,
he declared to enter the NFL Draft '03 after a knee operation in
January. He would have been a top two-three selection on April 26th
if healthy, but is currently the wild card prospect of the entire
draft after the injury. He tore two knee ligaments which usually
means a full year to completely recover to get back to top form
before returning to the playing field. Despite a very optimistic
prognosis, he has to be considered a back who needs that time to
fully recover to become a starting NFL feature back. For the patient
club that invests a 2nd or 3rd round selection this year, he could
pay huge dividends if healthy for the NFL '04 season. He has the
talent to become a special NFL running back.
This class features several other interesting prospects though,
that carry a starting NFL grade with none more intriguing than Georgia's
Musa Smith. The Bulldog junior declared in January after an impressive
'02 season that saw him play an instrumental role in Georgia's first
SEC title in twenty years. Smith hopes to follow a rich Bulldog
tradition that has produced backs like Herschel Walker, Terrell
Davis, Garrison Heart and Olandis Gary who have all become 1000
yard rushers in the NFL. Smith is a big tough back who is quick
to the hole with natural running instincts that allow him to put
multiple moves together with the ability to run both inside and
outside. He checks in at just under 6'1" and a solid 230 +
lbs. and he uses his big powerful frame very effectively to run
over tacklers, in addition to making them miss. He is capable of
breaking a big play with the good speed to go the distance as a
runner. At the recent Georgia workout, he ran 4.45 and 4.5 times,
in addition to a 38.5" vertical leap. He came up big over his
final season after a minor knee injury as a freshman and a broken
foot as a sophomore limited his earlier production despite flashing
big time running skills vs a high level of competition.
He is a prospect who is capable of surprising as a pro like former
Bulldog Terrell Davis who became one of the biggest steals in draft
history after being chosen in the 6th round of the '95 NFL Draft.
Smith took a major step up over his final season, displaying the
game to game toughness and production to become an NFL feature back.
He showed the ability and confidence to carry and want the ball
as a workhorse back in an offense. During his final season, he was
at his best in the most critical contests including the SEC title
game vs Arkansas and the Sugar Bowl where he scored the winning
TD and won the MVP award. During the '02 season, he averaged over
a 100 yards a game and passed the century mark in eight games in
a well balanced offense on their way to a 13-1 record and high national
ranking. Over the '02 season, he rushed for 1324 yards on 250 carries
and a fine 5.3 yard average per attempt. Though not completely developed
as a pass catcher, he has shown good hands as a receiver and the
ability to get into his routes easily. He did catch 44 passes over
his career and with further development in that area, he should
be an every down back and most likely as a rookie starter. He is
a great goal line runner with the power to run inside and the quickness
and speed to get to the corner. Over his short career, he scored
19 TDs as a runner on just 454 carries. He is similar to the Bengals
Corey Dillon in size, athleticism and running style and hits the
hole very much like the Cincinnati Pro-Bowl runner.
Though not considered a top 50 prospect by most analysts, he is
a top 30 prospect on Draft Insiders.com value board and a possible
surprise late first round selection. He is capable of being The
blue chip runner of this class with the toughness to take his game
up a level and become a top NFL feature back. The Cowboys, Redskins
and Texans have him on their short list and are hoping to land him
in the early 2nd round. He is capable of becoming an impact rookie
runner with the critical combination of power; quickness and speed
plus the key toughness and Eye of the Tiger to be making a difference
quickly as an NFL feature back.
Frank Coyle rated Terrell Davis as the surprise of the NFL Draft
'95 class ranking him as the #1 sleeper after an impressive Blue-Gray
all-star game that season. Davis went on to rush for over 2000
yards and earned the MVP for the league and the Super Bowl over
his career. Davis is currently recovering from a knee injury that
has jeopardized his career and forced him to miss the entire '02
NFL season.
Musa Smith #32 - 6'1" 225 LBS - GEORGIA
- SP. 4.5 RATING 89
Explosive junior tailback completed an outstanding career in the
SEC, which culminated with being named the MVP of the Sugar Bowl
this past January. Musa is a big fast running back who finished
with an impressive final season, including rushing for 100 yards
in 8 of the 13 games he started in. He was instrumental in the
Bulldogs first SEC title in 20 years. He is a big physical runner
with quick feet and the balance and vision to hit the hole quickly
and use his fine power and speed to break the play. He has the
good natural running skills necessary to be an NFL feature back,
displaying the instincts, quickness, strength, decision-making
and speed to be an early pro starter. He is the type of runner
who gets into a rhythm over the course of a game and wears down
a defense, getting stronger as the game progresses. He has the
ability to hit the home run from the line of scrimmage and is
similar to the Bengals' Corey Dillon and Packers' Ahman Green
in size, running skills and combination of power and speed. He
has a big frame, which will allow him to carry over 225 lbs. without
sacrificing quickness or speed. He displays very good lower body
strength, which allows him to consistently run through tacklers
and the cutting skills to make tacklers miss and move quickly
laterally. He has the ability to find the soft spots in a defense
and hits the hole with both quickness and authority to consistently
get to the second level. He is a good cutback runner despite his
big frame with the ability to set up defenders well on the perimeter.
He does need further development in the passing game after limited
experience in that aspect of the offense. He does show sure soft
hands as a receiver with the ability to follow blockers in the
openfield and break the play. He needs further work on his route
running and reading coverage to become more comfortable as a pro
receiver, but he has shown all the talents necessary to become
a well-rounded feature back.
KEY
FACTORS |
Athletic Ability |
8 |
Speed |
8 |
Quickness |
8 |
Hands |
8 |
Blocking |
8 |
Durability |
9 |
Run Inside |
9 |
Run Outside |
8 |
Intangibles |
8 |
Instincts |
9 |
HINDU THEORY |
Corey Dillon |
|
The Numbers
During his junior season, he led the club in rushing with
1324 yards on 250 carries for an excellent 5.3 yard average per
carry and 8 TDs. He became the first Bulldog runner since Garrison
Hearst in '92 to rush for over 1000 yards. He averaged 101 yards
rushing each game with 8 games of over 100 yards on the ground.
He also caught 15 passes for 107 yards during the '02 season and
finished his career with 44 receptions for 436 yards and 2 TDs.
He completed his college career with an MVP performance in the
Sugar Bowl when he ran for the game winning score. He averaged
almost 5 yards a carry over his three-year career in the tough
SEC. He came up big in the most critical spots over his career,
including the SEC Championship game vs. Arkansas when he ran for
106 yards on 19 carries and 2 TDs
The Skinny
Big powerful tailback shows the quick feet, vision, balance and
speed to break an ordinary play for a big gain. His combination
of power and speed coupled with sound running decisions and natural
instincts give him a chance to start as a rookie next fall. He
gets excellent use of a straight arm that allows him to break
tackles in the open field. With a quick burst to the hole and
the change-of-direction and lateral movement skills of a much
smaller runner, he turns a routine carry into a big play. He is
an excellent goal line runner with 19 career rushing TDs on only
454 career rushing attempts. He has the power to run inside between
the tackles and the quickness and speed to get outside and break
the big play. He is a tough durable back who showed the ability
to carry the load on a weekly game-to-game basis. He is an aggressive
player who is not afraid to take on LBers as a blocker, but he
certainly needs more technique work and recognition in that vital
area before being able to pick up the blitz well. He did not run
at the combine, but had a 35.5" VJ and a 10'3" broad
jump. He had an impressive March workout catching the ball and
solidified his high rating. Though not considered among the top
three by many analysts, he is the total package for the position
and a runner with the well-developed talent to be an early impact
player in the NFL. His combination of size, speed and running
skills should allow him to be the next great Georgia back to enter
the NFL and it is not outside the realm of possibilities that
he could be the best of a fine group of recent runners of Terrell
Davis, Garrison Hearst and Olandis Gary. Though not considered
a top 50 prospect by most, he is a top 30 prospect on my board
and a possible surprise late first round selection. Blue chip
runner with the toughness to take his game up a level and become
a top NFL feature back. The Cowboys, Redskins and Texans have
him on their short list. Impact rookie runner with the Eye of
the Tiger.
Draft Projection: 2nd Round
:: comments to frank
coyle
Frank Coyle has published
Draft Insiders' Digest
for 12 years.
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