Everyone knows to start Peyton
Manning every week, regardless of the match-up. But not all decisions
are as easy at that one. So to help you decide who you should
start and who you should bench I have identified the players at
the QB, RB and WR positions that should excel this week and should
be started, as well as the players who will struggle this week
and should be benched. Don’t forget the Thursday night game—get
those lineups in on time. And no need to worry about your star
player being off; the bye weeks are over and everybody plays!
Let's start with the QB position. You shouldn't have to be told,
but just in case... always, always start the following players:
Peyton
Manning, Tom
Brady, Drew
Brees, Aaron
Rodgers, Eli
Manning, Philip
Rivers, and Kyle
Orton. Now on to the question marks...
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Colt McCoy @ JAX
Well, the rookie passed a pretty big test last week against the
Jets 17th-ranked pass defense and almost pulled out a win; looks
like he could be the real thing. This week he faces the 29th-ranked
pass defense in Jacksonville. The Jags give up an average of 272
yards and over 2 TDs per game. Their 19 TDs are third-most in
the league, and their 8.8 yards per completion average is worst
in the league. They are tied with Arizona for last in the league
in giving up big plays, and only the Texans have given up more
40-plus yard pass plays than Jacksonville has. They don’t
get sacks or INTs, are next to last in QB rating with 105.7, and
allow QBs to complete 68 percent of their passes—third-highest
in the league. If you take out the New Orleans debacle where McCoy
threw for just 74 yards, he’s averaging 220 yards passing
and 1 TD per game. He had 205 yards and a TD against the Jets
last week, so he should be in line for a big game this week in
Jacksonville.
Vince Young vs. WAS
It’s hard to believe after the Monday night performance that the
Redskins are not the worst pass defense in the league—Houston
still owns that claim, but Washington is 31st. Nobody gets thrown
against more than the ’Skins (42 times a game), and they give
up 287 yards and 2 TDs per game because of it. Now, clearly Vince
Young is no Michael Vick, but he is a mobile quarterback who could
give the Redskins similar problems. And with Kerry Collins out,
there’s no chance of Young getting benched for rookie Rusty Smith.
Young’s been doing the quarterback shuffle with Collins all year,
but now he’s a got a couple of weeks to do something, and although
he only averages 136 yards passing, he’s fifth in QB rating with
97.6 and has 10 TDs against just 3 INTs—plus he now has Randy
Moss to throw to (or to at least keep safeties honest). Young
does fumble a lot, so that’s a legitimate concern. But this is
shaping up to be one of the best opportunities he’ll have to prove
himself all year, so if you’re gonna roll the dice on him, this
is the week to do it.
Mark Sanchez vs. HOU
Sanchez is still struggling with consistency but is definitely
getting better. He’s only completing 55 percent of his passes,
which is third-lowest in the league for qualifying quarterbacks
and worst among current starters. He is 23rd in yards with 221
a game, has 12 TDs to 6 INTs, has a decent QB rating (80.5), and
is fifth in the league in 40-plus yard pass plays. He’s
thrown for 300 or more yards with a passing TD and a rushing TD
in each of the last two games (okay, 299 yards last week, but
work with me here). He does have 4 INTs and 3 fumbles (none lost)
in the last three games though, so be advised. Still, against
the league’s worst pass/overall defense, Sanchez looks like
a great play this week. Houston is last in QB rating with 110.2,
last in TDs allowed (22), and last in yards per game with 301—the
only NFL team giving up 300-plus passing yards per game. They
are also next to last in completion percentage (69 percent), points
allowed (29), INTs (5), and yards per completion (8.5). They give
up the third-most big plays and have had only 14 sacks all year.
All signs point to a big day for Sanchez and the Jets.
Bardford will pad his stats against Atlanta
this week.
Sam Bradford vs. ATL
Bradford, the probable rookie of the year, faces perhaps the best
team in the NFC this week. But Atlanta’s pass defense is
just 23rd in the league, and they allow 245 yards and 2 TDs per
game. Plus they allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 67 percent
of their passes, which is one of the worst percentages in the
league. Bradford averages 214 yards and 1 TD per game while completing
60 percent of his passes, and at home this week he has a good
chance to pad those stats a little. Atlanta better not take the
Rams and their rookie quarterback too lightly, or Bradford may
just have a huge game this week.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Matt Hasselbeck @ NO
Let’s see, Hasselbeck struggled against Oakland—the
second-best pass defense in the league—in Week 8, was out
for Week 9, and then this past week against the Cardinals and
their 27th-ranked pass defense, he went off. Keeping with this
pattern, it’s very likely that Hasselbeck will struggle
against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense and play more
like he did in the Oakland game (163 yards, 1 INT, 8 sacks) than
he did in Arizona (333 yards, 1 TD, 1 sack). The Saints allow
just 166 yards a game and have given up only 6 TDs all year—tied
with Chicago for best in the league. They’ve also given
up the fewest big plays, and they allow only 17 points per game,
which is fifth-best in the league. Hasselbeck will likely struggle
to reach his average 218 yards per game this week, and his 7 TDs
and 7 INTs on the season pretty much say it all. So even after
his impressive game last week, I’d keep him on the bench
this Sunday.
Troy Smith vs. TB
This week the surprising—no, very surprising—Tampa
Bay Buccaneers put their eighth-ranked pass defense on the line
against the 49ers’ spark plug quarterback, Troy Smith. The
Bucs allow just 210 yards a game and have almost as many INTs
(14) as TDs allowed (15). They don’t give up a lot of big
plays, and are one of the best teams in the league in pass completion
percentage and QB rating. Since replacing the “other Smith”
(Alex), Troy has gone 2-0 as the ’Niners starter, averaging
276 yards and 1 TD per game—and he has yet to throw an INT,
although he does have 2 fumbles and was sacked five times last
week That shouldn’t be an issue this week, as Tampa Bay
has the fewest sacks in the league (just 8). Smith’s average
QB rating is 115.7, but that’s against Denver and St. Louis,
both of which are average pass defenses. You know it’s just
a matter of time before Smith comes back down to earth, and this
could be the week that happens.
Tony Pike vs. BAL
The once mighty Ravens defense is giving up 217 yards and a TD
per game this year. They are uncharacteristically average in pass
defense, with less than 1 INT per game and less than 2 sacks per
game. But not only are the lowly Carolina Panthers up next for
B’more, the Ravens might not even have to face their starting
rookie quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, due to a concussion. Instead,
they will likely face the Panthers’ backup rookie quarterback
from Cincinnati, Tony Pike. This would be Pike’s first start but
not his first action—he’s already thrown a whopping 12 passes
this year. Whether it’s Pike, Clausen, or even recently activated
Brian St. Pierre, there’s no way you should be playing a Carolina
QB against anybody.
Tyler Thigpen vs. CHI
The Dolphins lost both Chad’s this past weekend as both
Pennington, who got the start, and Henne were knocked out of the
game, which Tyler Thigpen finished. Thigpen is expected to start
this week’s Thursday night game against the Bears, which
would be his first since starting 11 games for the Chiefs in 2008.
Now, not only does Thigpen get to take on the Bears and their
15th-ranked defense—which gives up 219 yards per game, has
allowed a league-low 6 TDs, and has the second-most INTs (14)
in the NFL—but he might be doing it without left tackle
Jake Long, who is having an MRI on his shoulder. Thigpen will
get the start, but the wildcat offense may resurface this week
(as it did last Sunday) to take the ball out of his hands. There
are just too many negatives to consider Thigpen a good flex starter
this week.
Running Backs
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