Everyone knows to start Peyton
Manning every week, regardless of the match-up. But not all decisions
are as easy at that one. So to help you decide who you should
start and who you should bench I have identified the players at
the QB, RB and WR positions that should excel this week and should
be started, as well as the players who will struggle this week
and should be benched. Don’t forget the Thursday night game—get
those lineups in on time. And no need to worry about your star
player being off; the bye weeks are over and everybody plays!
Let's start with the QB position. You shouldn't have to be told,
but just in case... always, always start the following players:
Peyton
Manning, Tom
Brady, Drew
Brees, Aaron
Rodgers, Philip
Rivers, and Kyle
Orton. Now on to the question marks...
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative
To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Brett Favre @ WAS
Grandpa Favre is struggling to remain a top 25 QB this year. His
227 yards a game ranks him 23rd in the NFL and he averages just
1 TD to go along with his 2 INTs per game. His 69.8 QB rating
is the lowest for any starting QB and his 60.2 completion percentage
is 6th lowest in the league. Against his former team, the Green
Bay Packers, Favre was 17-38 for 208 yards and an INT in a blowout
loss. He’s got 24 different injuries he’s nursing, the Vikings’
season is over, which means his career is over, and yet his selfishness
and ego won’t allow him to step down and let the Vikings see what
they have in Tarvaris Jackson for the future. Now the good news…
Favre takes on the Redskins’ 29th ranked pass defense this week.
Washington allows 280 yards and 2 TDs per game and gives up 4
big plays a game – 4th worst in the league. A horrendous performance
like last week is exactly when Favre usually bounces back and
against the Redskins he might be bouncing back big.
Rusty Smith @ HOU
With Vince Young obviously off his meds (again), the Titans must
turn to the rookie from Florida Atlantic to lead them until veteran
Kerry Collins returns. Smith was 3-9 for 62 yards and an INT in
last week’s limited action after replacing the injured Young.
Of course, it’s only natural to think the Titans’ season is over
and this QB is going to do nothing – but not so fast. He faces
the faltering Houston Texans and their 32nd ranked pass defense
this week, so there’s some amount of hope. Houston has had the
worst pass defense in the league since week 1 and is currently
giving up 301 yards and 2.5 TDs per game, which is down from the
419 yards a game in Week 1, 338 yards a game in Week 4, 306 yards
a game in Week 6, but up a little from 298 yards a game in Weeks
8 and 9. While I don’t expect Smith to throw for 300 yards, I
do expect him to have a better game than perhaps most would expect
from a rookie making his first NFL start.
Shaun Hill vs. NE
In Hill’s two weeks back from injury he’s thrown for
323 yards and a TD and 289 yards and 2 TDs – both in losing
efforts, but we don’t care about wins and losses, just stats.
This week he takes on the 31st ranked pass defense of the Patriots
and should exceed his 240 yards per game average against the 8-2
team giving up 289 yards and 2 TDs per game through the air. The
bad luck Lions could put up a lot of points at home on Thanksgiving
against New England making Hill a very good play.
Sam Bradford @ DEN
I recommended starting him last week against the Falcons’
23rd ranked pass defense, and the rookie did not disappoint, throwing
for 233 yards and 2 TDs. This week Bradford takes his 216 yards
and 1 TD per game average to Denver to face the 20th ranked Broncos’
passing defense. The ball should be flying in Denver’s thin
air for both teams and Bradford could be adding to his growing
number of rookie of the year votes. Denver allows 230 yards and
2 TDs per game, which is almost exactly what Bradford got you
last week.
Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform
Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype
Jon
Kitna vs. NO
I wanted to recommend starting Kitna last week but there were
just too many other matchups to compete with. This week I’m not
recommending him for a start, but I’m recommending him for a benching!
Kitna is quickly moving up the rankings with his performance the
last couple of weeks and is currently 14th in the NFL with 245
yards and 2 TDs per game. He’s thrown 3 TDs each of the last two
weeks, and even ran one in last week to cap off a four-TD performance.
But that was against Detroit; this week it’s New Orleans. I know
he’s at home, on Thanksgiving Day – big traditional game for the
‘Boys, but the Saints’ 2nd ranked pass defense could be too much
for him to handle. Either Kitna will go off again in a shootout
with Brees or he’ll come crashing back to reality. Based on Kitna’s
history, I have to side with reality over shootout. New Orleans
should be able to contain the Cowboys passing attack to the tune
of the 186 yards a game they allow. And even more importantly,
the Saints have only allowed 7 TDs all year – only the Bears have
allowed fewer (6), so things don’t look so good for the resurgent
Cowboys.
Jason
Campbell vs. MIA
The upstart Raiders and their QB Jason Campbell got a big smack
of reality last week when the Steelers held Campbell to 7-19 passing
for 70 yards, an INT, 4 sacks and 2 fumbles. He was replaced by
Bruce Gradkowski but Head Coach Tom Cable says Campbell will remain
the starter this week against the Dolphins, who have their own
QB woes to deal with. Miami’s 5th ranked pass defense gives up
just 197 yards and 1 TD per game. They are 9th in the league in
sacks and 7th in big plays allowed. Only eight teams have given
up less passing TDs and they allow just 59% of passes to be completed
against them – 10th best in the league. Campbell’s season stats
are 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks and 1 fumble per game in his
7 starts, so don’t expect more and avoid him like the plague.
How many times will the Eagles sack Cutler
this week?
Jay
Cutler vs. PHI
Cutler is best-known as the whiny QB who has been sacked a league-leading
33 times. He’s averaging 229 yards and a TD per game over his
9 starts, and in the two games before last week’s battle against
Miami he’d totaled 425 yards and 5 TDs. This week he takes on
the Eagles and their 13th ranked pass defense that gives up 213
yards and nearly 2 TDs per game, but also leads the league in
INTs, is 9th in sacks, 3rd in QB rating (71.0), 6th in completion
percentage (56.3), and 5th in yards per completion (6.6). All
signs point to a rough outing for Cutler this week and I’d leave
him on the bench if possible.
Tyler
Thigpen @ OAK
I told you to bench him last week against the 15th ranked Chicago
Bears pass defense and if you listened you avoided a 17-29, 187
yard, 1 INT, 1 fumble, 6 sack debacle. This week, Thigpen takes
on a statistically better pass defense in Oakland, who even after
getting destroyed by the Steelers, ranks 4th in the league in
pass defense giving up just 193 yards per game – but 2 TDs per
game to be careful of. Only Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, New
England and Houston have given up more TDs than the Raiders. They
do give up big plays and only have 5 INTs on the year (less than
anyone but Buffalo with 4) but are also 4th in the league in sacks
and 2nd in completion percentage (54.2%). This is clearly an up-and-down
pass defense but I expect more “ups” from them this week after
the beating they took from Pittsburgh so you should be very hesitant
to give Thigpen a shot.
Running Backs
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