Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Always start your studs: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Terrell Owens, Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, and Brandon Lloyd.

Start 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Greg Jennings @ NE
If Aaron Rodgers is not starting this week then this recommendation changes to “Bench ‘Em,” but if Rodgers is playing, Jennings could have a huge day against the Patriots’ 31st-ranked pass defense. New England is giving up 266 yards a game, and they’ve given up 21 TDs so far this year. They have played incredibly well the past two weeks against the Jets and the Bears, but I don’t think they can do the same against the Packers. Jennings is 20th in the league with 77 yards per game and 11 TDs on the year. Just remember: Rodgers starts, Jennings starts; Rodgers sits, Jennings sits.

Kenny Britt vs. HOU
Britt struggled last week with just 3 catches for 49 yards and a lost fumble, but he should be better acclimated after his six-week layoff and could have a monster game this week against the league’s laughing stock at pass defense. Houston has the worst secondary in the league, by far. They give up 280 yards and over 2 TDs per game on average. Their 29 passing TDs allowed are the most in the league, their 8.1 yards per completion allowed is the third-highest in the league, and their five big plays a game are the third-most in the league. Look for Britt to easily surpass his 53 yards per game and add to his 7 TDs on the year.

Miles Austin vs. WAS
Not only is Washington’s run defense bad, but so is their pass defense, and it’s only going to get worse with their injuries and “we’re out of it” mentality. The Redskins are 29th in the league in pass defense, giving up 261 yards per game. They’ve only allowed 19 TDs so far this year, but they give up a lot of big plays and get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Austin’s been in a slump—just 94 yards and 0 TDs in the last three weeks—but is looking to burst out of it this week against the Redskins. Even with his recent decline, he’s still 25th in the league, with 64 yards per game, and he’s got 5 TDs on the year. He should be a solid play for you this week.

Pierre Garcon vs. JAX
Jacksonville’s 28th-ranked pass defense gives up 258 yards and 2 TDs per game. They also give up 9 yards per completion! They are second in the league in big plays allowed (62), including one 40-plus yard play per game, so they can be beat short as well as deep. Peyton Manning should be hooking up with Wayne and Garcon all day long in this critical divisional game. The division winner makes the playoffs and runner-up goes home (there will be no wildcard from the AFC South), so this is a big game, and I expect big numbers on both sides. Garcon should improve his 57 yards per game while adding to his 4 TDs on the year—even if Austin Collie is back this week.

Bench 'Em:
Receivers Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Michael Crabtree @ SD
Crabtree had a horrible game last week against a horrible pass defense, and this week he faces the league’s No. 1 pass defense in San Diego. The Chargers are giving up just 173 yards and 1 TD per game, their 12 TDs allowed are the third-fewest in the league, and nobody has given up fewer big plays. There’s little reason to think Crabtree will match or exceed his 43 yards per game in this matchup, especially since he only managed 1 catch for 1 yard against Seattle least week. Furthermore, he has only 5 TDs on the year. This game should show us the “real” Alex Smith again, and Crabtree will be negatively affected. Keep him on the sideline.

Hines Ward vs. NYJ
I expect the Jets pass defense to be closer to last week’s defense, which held the Dolphins to 5 of 18 passing for 55 yards, than to the defense that saw Tom Brady light them up for 326 yards the week before. Pittsburgh will get plenty of yards (more than the 204 the Jets are currently allowing per game) and score on the fast-sinking Jets, but I’m not convinced it will be due to a big performance from Ward. Hines Ward is currently 44th in the league, with 49 yards per game, but he’s had big games in two of the past three weeks. Still, I think the Jets will lock him up, so I’d only start Ward if you absolutely have to.

Deion Branch vs. GB
Green Bay’s third-ranked pass defense gives up 197 yards and 1 TD per game. Their 12 TDs allowed are the third-fewest in the league, plus they generate a lot of turnovers (18, which is good for third-most in the league). Of course against Brady I don’t expect more than 1 INT, so don’t focus on that turnover statistic. Branch went off against the Bears in the blizzard last week (8 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD) and is averaging 72 yards per game with 5 TDs on the year. He’s been a huge acquisition for the Patriots this year, but I’m not sure this week will be a good one for him. If you’re crazy like me and think the Packers can contain New England, you’ll want to pass on Branch this week.

Anquan Boldin vs. NO
Boldin was hugely outplayed by teammate Derrick Mason (6 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs) last week against the pathetic Texans, and I don’t see a huge change for this week against the league’s fifth-ranked pass defense and the only team in the NFL with less than 10 passing TDs allowed (best in the NFL with only 8). The Saints give up 199 yards per game, and I think the Ravens will struggle to meet that total, so I’d advise against Boldin this week. He’ll likely do better than he did last week (3 catches for 41 yards), but there’s a good chance he won’t match his season average of 62 yards per game or add to his 7 TDs.