Running Backs

Always start your studs: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, and Darren McFadden.

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Ronnie Brown vs. DET
The floundering Dolphins take on the “better than their record” Lions, who sport the league’s 24th-ranked run defense. Detroit gives up 126 yards a game, and their 16 rushing TDs allowed are the third-most in the league. They also give up 4.6 ypc, which is the fourth-highest average in the NFL. They’ll play you tough, but you can run on them. Brown, the Dolphins’ leading rusher, is averaging just 49 yards per game and has only 4 TDs on the year—one of which came last week. But against the Lions he should be able to improve on those stats and maybe even add another TD to his total.

Mike Tolbert @ CIN
The pathetic Bengals (did they really make the playoffs last year?) are 23rd in the league in run defense, giving up 120 yards a game. Their 13 rushing TDs allowed are the eighth-most in the NFL this year, their 4.6 ypc average is fourth-highest in the league, and their 19 big plays given up are the third-most of all teams. Enter San Diego with their 14th-ranked rushing attack and their two talented running backs. Over the last two weeks Matthews and Tolbert have split carries right down the middle and produced almost exactly the same numbers, although Tolbert has 2 TDs to Matthews’ 1. That’s the deciding factor for me; Tolbert has 11 TDs on the year to Matthews’ 3. So with everything else being equal, you gotta go with the big man who scores.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ BUF
The Law Firm comes into this game ranked 25th in the league with 59 yards per game, but his 12 rushing TDs are second-most in the league, behind only Arian Foster’s 13. Last week he played poorly (against a tough Green Bay defense), but there’s no better way to bounce back with a big game than to play the Buffalo Bills and their league-worst run defense. Buffalo gives up 160 yards on the ground and their 15 TDs allowed are the fifth-most in the league. They are an unstoppable…wait, they can’t stop anybody, and BJGE should keep that trend going.

Felix Jones @ ARI
Jones had a nice game last week, but he showed why he is such a risk, going out seemingly every other play with some sort of “ding”. He’s seems to be an IR placement waiting to happen, plus he’s dealing with some competition from Tashard Choice. Choice already has more rushing TDs than Jones (3 to 1, although Jones does have an extra receiving TD). Jones is good for nearly 80 yards a game (46 rushing and 32 receiving) and is a threat to break one on every touch (even though we haven’t seen that lately). Against the 30th-ranked Cardinals run defense, Jones might just have his biggest game of the year. Arizona allows 146 yards and 1 TD per game, and their 16 TDs allowed are the third-most in the league. The Cardinals are a filthy mess and Jones and the Cowboys should have their way with them.

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Jonathan Stewart @ PIT
Stewart seems to have been the only offense for the Panthers in recent weeks. Over his last three games (all starts) he’s rushed for 92 yards, 133 yards, and 137 yards, in that order. The problem is he has only 1 TD during that stretch. And while these recent games make you want to overlook his 56 yards per game average, he faces the Steelers and their top-ranked run defense this week, so you can’t. Pittsburgh is still only allowing an incredible 63 yards per game, and their 3 yards per carry and 5 TDs allowed on the year are both tops in the league as well. Nobody has had a run against them longer than 24 yards all season. Why this game is the Thursday night game amazes me. What happened to flex scheduling? This one could be ugly, so bench Stewart and do not be a part of it.

Brandon Jackson vs. NYG
Jackson is averaging only 46 yards per game, and has only 3 TDs. He does give you a nice little boost as a receiver, but it’s not enough to make him a reliable starter. Don’t be swayed by last week’s game against New England, in which he ran for 99 yards and averaged 4.5 ypc. The Giants, as bad as they were last week, and as bad as their run defense has been in recent weeks (they’ve fallen from third in the league to tenth since week 10), should be on a mission to stop not only the running game, but the entire Packers offense. After all, they can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win. New York is still allowing only 102 yards per game, so it’s not as if they have completely collapsed…that was the whole team, not just the defense, that imploded last week against Philly.

Maurice Morris @ MIA
“MoMo” picked up the slack for the beat-up Lions running game with a 109-yard, 1-TD performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. But don’t get too excited, he’s still only averaging 24 yards per game, albeit in very limited playing time. That yardage per game plus 3 TDs on the year does not a starting RB make, even if he’s coming off a big-time performance, and especially when he’s facing the Dolphins’ sixth-ranked run defense. Miami is giving up 97 yards per game and has the third-lowest ypc average (3.6), the fourth-fewest rushing TDs (6), and the second-fewest big plays (4) in the league. Nobody has had a run over 30 yards against them all year—don’t expect Morris to either.

Matt Forte vs. NYJ
With a 62 yards per game average, Forte is on the cusp of being a top 20 RB (he’s currently 22nd), plus he gives you another 31 yards per game receiving. He has 5 rushing TDs and 3 receiving TDs on the year, but only 1 TD in the last three weeks. And things won’t get any easier this week against the possibly resurgent Jets (let’s see if they can win two in a row before we consider them “back”), who are fourth in the league in run defense, giving up just 92 yards per game. The Jets are also in the top 3 in ypc average (3.6), fumble recoveries (11), and big plays allowed (6). I would be very hesitant to play Forte this week—the Jets are not a team you want to deal with right now (and it has nothing to do with Rex Ryan’s wife’s feet).

Wide Receivers