7/24/09
Part of the intrigue of fantasy football is being able to accurately
forecast the production of those players who switch teams during
the off-season. As fantasy owners, we know how much simpler it is
to project players’ success—or lack thereof—when
they return to their team the following year. But the ability to
gauge the production of players who pack their bags and head to
other NFL destinations is the foundation of building and managing
a successful fantasy team. Here’s my list of five players
who will shine in their new situation and five players who will
struggle.
Shine
- WR Terrell
Owens, DAL: We can call Terrell Owens many things—team chemistry
killer, quarterback agitator, prima donna. But one description
that must be included is Owens is one of the best wide receivers
of his generation. He arrives in Buffalo this year amid the
same type of skepticism that followed him to his previous two
stops in Dallas and Philadelphia. Many bDamoneve Owens is a time
bomb ready to detonate. That may be true. Others bDamoneve his
overbearing personality will be too much for the Bills to handle—specifically
QB Trent
Edwards. And that may be true. But from a fantasy perspective,
we owners can find comfort in the fact that Owens produces like
crazy during the first season with a new team. His first season
in both Dallas and Philly produced a total of 162 receptions
and 27 TDs. Granted, he’s much older now, but I saw nothing
last year in Dallas that led me to bDamoneve that he’s taken a
noticeable dip physically.
Lee Evans
is a solid #2 NFL WR, but Owens has proven that it doesn’t matter
who’s playing opposite him. The fact that Evans is a solid complement,
however, makes it all the more interesting to watch how this
season unfolds for Buffalo’s newest weapon. Owens is coming
into 2009 with a huge chip on his shoulder, ready to prove to
the Cowboys and the NFL world at-large that he was not the sole
source of Dallas’ dysfunction last season. Owens is primarily
being drafted in the third or fourth round in most mocks I have
seen. If that holds true during your draft, snatch him up and
watch T.O. heat up Western New York like it hasn’t been since
the Super Bowl gaffes of the early 1990s.
- TE
Tony Gonzalez, ATL: What do you get when you combine a Hall
of Fame tight end with an Atlanta offense that already has a
budding superstar at QB, an absolute stud at RB, and a blossoming
talent at WR? You get a tight end that will help fuel your fantasy
team to ultimate success, that’s what you get. Gonzalez has
seemingly been around forever, yet he’s only 32 years old and
last year in Kansas City had one of his best seasons, despite
the below-average play at the QB position. Now he takes his
talent to Atlanta, giving second-year signal-caller Matt
Ryan the threat at TE that he didn’t have last year. In
fact, the TE position in Atlanta had a combined 19 catches and
two TDs in 2008. Gonzalez alone could have those totals by week
three.
There’s enough talent on offense for the Falcons that defenses
can’t focus on Gonzalez. Roddy
White on the outside and battering ram RB Michael
Turner provide the necessary versatility that will allow
Gonzalez to successfully roam the middle of defenses with regularity.
And as Ryan continues to develop his Pro Bowl skills, Gonzalez
will be the beneficiary of those short dump-off passes and those
key third-and-shorts that keep drives going. Gonzalez has two
or three good years left, and 2009 will simply be a continuation
of what has been one of the best TE careers in NFL history.
- QB
Kyle Orton, DEN: Kyle Orton won’t shine in the traditional
since, i.e., putting up Pro Bowl-caliber numbers while torching
defenses week after week. No. I don’t think he’s that kind of
player. But the situation in which he finds himself makes him
a solid fantasy contributor as a #2 QB. New head coach Josh
McDaniels will no doubt implement the same offense that helped
propel Matt Cassell into an inexplicable multi-million dollar
contract with the Chiefs. For my money, Orton is every bit the
QB that Cassell is, and he’s garnered success with far less
talent around him than Cassell. But I digress. More on Cassell
later.
Some have questioned his ability to keep the job all season.
Who’s going to take the starting spot from him? Chris
Simms? Really? Sure Orton has limitations at QB. But he
provides the Denver Broncos offense with a steady QB that is
perfect for the controlled passing attack McDaniels wants to
install. And with outside weapons such as Brandon
Marshall and Eddie
Royal, plus multi-dimensional rookie RB Knowshon
Moreno, Orton has the tools at his disposal to be as big
a surprise in 2009 as he was during the first half of 2008.
- WR
Laveranues Coles, CIN – Laveranues Coles has never wowed
us with supreme athletic talent. Nor has he ever been a player
who we could rely on to bring us fantasy championships. But
Coles is the consummate complementary fantasy player, a gem
at the #3 WR position. His possession receiver-type skills are
what every fantasy team should have, and this year in Cincinnati,
with a healthy Carson
Palmer returning to the line-up, Coles should benefit from
an offense that many anticipate to be much improved over last
season.
Coles replaces the departed TJ Houshmandzadeh, the league’s
best possession receiver. While Coles is far from the player
that Houshmandzadeh is, he gives Palmer a rDamonable target in
clutch third down situations in much the same way #84 did. And
with the always-volatile, never-predictable, falling-in-value
motor-mouth Tweeter that is Chad
Ochocinco on the other side, Coles has a great chance of
getting the lion’s share of Palmer’s attention. He has never
been huge with scoring TDs, but Coles will prove solid in PPR
leagues.
-
Fred
Taylor: The best pure running back on the Patriots
roster.
RB Fred
Taylor, NE – Predicting that Fred Taylor will shine in his
new surroundings in New England is a relative phrase. Could
he be the afterthought that many predict as a RB on the wrong
side of 30 years old? Maybe. Could he get lost in the crowded
and often unpredictable Patriot backfield? With head coach Bill
BDamonchick calling the shots, absolutely. But here’s all the
clarification I need to include Taylor on this side of the bracket.
Even at 33 years of age, he remains the best pure RB on New
England’s roster. Other RBs on the squad, Sammy
Morris, Kevin
Faulk, Laurence
Maroney and BenJarvus
Green-Ellis, all do things well in their own right, but
Taylor is the total package compared to this bunch. Also, New
England may attempt to protect prized QB Tom
Brady with the running game this year—especially early in
the season—and get away from throwing the ball 586 times the
way they did in 2007. Taylor could see a spike in his value
if that’s the case.
Taylor hasn’t had more than 18 carries in a game since
week three last year, so certainly he won’t be called
upon to be New England’s bell cow. But with the abundant
red zone opportunities he’s sure to get in that prolific
offense, coupled with the Patriots’ ability to rotate
their RBs, Taylor’s abbreviated, yet productive touches,
should keep him fresh while adding depth to any fantasy squad
in the process.
Struggle
- QB
Matt Cassell, KC – It never ceases to amaze me how desperate
NFL teams are for quality QB play. So much so that they often
overpay anyone with a pulse who puts up a couple great games
in a row. Derek Anderson. Scott Mitchell. David Garrard. The
league’s history is littered with such blunders. Matt Cassell
is now the latest to turn his good fortune into a life-altering
contract. I’m still baffled why so many were so high on Cassell.
Seriously. He took over a 16-0 team with one of the best offenses
in league history; plus he had a ready-made championship team
around him. And sure Cassell became only the fifth QB to throw
for more than 400 yards in consecutive games (Dan Marino, Phil
Simms, Dan Fouts, Billy Volek are the others), but again, look
at the surrounding cast. Randy Moss won’t accompany him to Kansas
City. Neither will Wes
Welker. Neither will Bill BDamonchick. Neither will the overall
structure of the Patriot organization.
Who will he have in Kansas City? A Swiss cheese offensive line.
Little quality at WR outside of Dwayne Bowe. A seemingly disinterested
RB in Larry Johnson. A departed Hall of Fame TE in Tony Gonzalez.
A first-time head coach in Todd Haley. Ouch. Let’s see how
he does with that. And for all the hullabaloo about Cassell, a
quick glance at his numbers from 2008 reveals nothing overly impressive.
He threw for just under 3,700 yards, with 21 TDs and 11 INTs.
Not dramatically better than Kyle Orton’s just-under-3,000
yards, 18 TDs and 12 INTs, despite Orton’s below-average
supporting cast and ankle injury suffered in week nine. Bottom
line, Cassell is fool’s gold in 2009. Look at him as nothing
more than a low #2/high #3 fantasy QB.
- WR
Roy Williams, DAL – Even though Roy Williams was traded
during the season last year, I still feel this is a new environment
for him, and thus his inclusion in this article. Living in Detroit,
I witnessed for four-plus years how Roy Williams tantalized
fans and teammates with his talent and athletic ability. Unfortunately,
those glimpses were few and far between, as Williams often seemed
more interested in providing the local media with witty one-liners
than becoming the All-Pro WR he’s capable of becoming. Now the
spotlight gets more intense on Williams, who returns to his
home state to play for his favorite team as a child.
Many Dallas supporters hate the trade that brought Williams to
Big D, including former QB Troy Aikman. Aikman went so far as
to say it’d be one of the league’s worst trades if
Williams doesn’t perform up to his capabilities. While I
wouldn’t go that far, it must be noted that Williams is
two years removed from his best season. In order for his addition
to the Cowboys to be viewed as anything other than a total flop,
the 27-year-old Williams must at least match the 2008 production
of the 35-year-old Terrell Owens. Can he do that? Can he withstand
the nonstop pressure to produce and become the playmaker on the
league’s most marketed team? I say he falls woefully short.
- QB Brett
Favre, MIN? – I’m going out on a limb here and predicting
that Brett Favre will return to the league and play for the
Minnesota Vikings. What more should we expect from an attention-loving
guy? The first question is why. Why the haste to sign a soon-to-be
40-year-old QB who’s clearly on his last leg? And all those
Favre apologists who point to the arm injury as the cause of
his late-season struggles last year? Spare me. He tossed 10
TDs while throwing 18 INTs during the Jets’ last 12 games. Those
same apologists say he’s the last piece for the Vikings to ascend
to NFC supremacy; that he’d provide stability at the QB position;
that he’d ignite the passing game in Minnesota and help its
WRs perform better. Well, those are the same claims that were
made last year when he signed with the Jets.
Favre’s best days are behind him. He’s a shell of
his former MVP self, and his retire/unretire charade year after
year is getting old. That aside, Favre’s a turnover waiting
to happen, and that’s a pain in the neck from a fantasy
perspective. And if his injury were anywhere other than his throwing
arm, I’d say it’d be inconsequential. But the location
of the injury, coupled with his advancing age and proneness to
turning the ball over give me great pause putting Favre anywhere
near my team this year. Don’t get swept away by all the
fluff surrounding a triumphant return by Favre. Buyer beware.
Kellen Winslow: Playing in a fantasy
deadzone?
- TE
Kellen Winslow, TB – I want to preface this prediction by
saying I like Kellen Winslow. I like his attitude and I like
how he plays. But a few things worry me about him going into
2009, not the least of which is the dearth of experience/talent
at the QB position in Tampa. Winslow’s production will be adversely
affected by the potential struggles at QB. Even though veteran
Byron
Leftwich is the odds-on favorite to at least begin the season
as the starter, he’s not a QB that’s going to help fuel the
production of a TE.
Plus, WRs Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant have been career
underachievers, Bryant’s 2008 season notwithstanding. Neither
strike fear in opposing defenses, leaving Winslow as perhaps the
most widely respected receiving threat for the Buccaneers. Those
views of Winslow will undoubtedly bring more attention from defenses
and thus less production. Under most other circumstances, I’d
say Winslow doesn’t make this list. But the Bucs will be
a fantasy dead zone in 2009, so temper your expectations if you’re
drafting anyone on this team.
- WR
Bryant Johnson, DET – Ok, I’ll admit. Putting Bryant Johnson
on this list isn’t exactly stretching the limits of possibilities.
After all, he’s done next to nothing to justify the first round
selection Arizona used on him back in 2003. He’s on this list
for one reason only. Fantasy owners will assume that the Detroit
Lions will be behind in many of their games and will have to
throw simply to stay in the game. Conventional wisdom says with
all the attention that fantasy stud Calvin
Johnson will receive, Bryant Johnson and the other Lions
receivers should get opportunities to produce. Well, Bryant
Johnson found it tough to produce in Arizona under similar conditions
when he played with TWO fantasy stud receivers in Larry Fitzgerald
and Anquan Boldin. Johnson is what he is: an average NFL receiver
whose place on your fantasy roster should be scrutinized each
week.
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