Week 11
11/17/05
Last Week's Projections
(10-4) Straight Up - 71.4%
(5-9) Against The Spread - 35.7%
Arizona (+9.5) at St. Louis
1:00 p.m.
Warner is back at the helm and was not bad as he threw for
359 yards and a score. Again, the Cardinals issue lies within their
offensive line and running game. If they could have controlled the
clock better they could have beaten the Lions. It looks as though
Boldin will return this week and has practiced all week. He is supposed
to go to a full practice on Thursday. With the way they throw the
ball around you have to get him in your starting lineup. From a
pure fantasy perspective, Boldin, Warner, and Fitz should all be
good plays.
The Rams donated their usual 3 TDs to Alexander and proved again
that offense doesn’t win defense does. They just couldn’t
get them off the field on third down. Even with the return of Bulger
(304 yards and a TD) they could not stay with the juggernaut that
has become the Seahawks. I think they will go nuts this week so
look for big games from the regulars Bulger, Jackson, Holt but understand
that this game will be closer than most think because neither defense
can stop the other.
Final Score: Rams 32, Cardinals
28
Carolina (-3) at Chicago
1:00 p.m.
Da Bears may be the most surprising team in football. That
offense line is just awesome. They ran for a total of 180 yards
against the 49ers in a weird, windy, game. Adrian Peterson looked
great as he ran for 120 yards and a TD surprising Benson owners
who were expecting a big game with Jones still out. Didn’t
happen. Benson is now out for 3-6 weeks with a knee sprain. Jones
should be back this week but look for Peterson to get some carries
and might end of starting a game or two if Jones doesn’t come
back as his usual self.
The Panther train keeps on rolling as they pummeled the horrible
Jets in fine fashion 30-3. This one was a defensive battle with
little action until the Panthers turned up the heat on Bollinger
in the 4tth and forced several turnovers with one being returned
for a TD. I think they will have a tough going with the Bears defense
being as stout as it is. But I think that they will find a way to
win however it wouldn’t surprise me if this were an upset.
Final Score: Panthers 20, Bears
14
Detroit at Dallas (-8)
1:00 p.m.
What a gift for the Pokes last week. But a win is a win…bottom
line. They were left for dead but found a way to score 2 TDs in
about 20 seconds to steal a win from the jaws of defeat. The offense
really had no rhythm until the final drive at the end of the 4th.
I think that has a lot to do with the dreaded running back by
committee situation that has formed with Barber and Jones. Both
of these guys are better when they get a lot of carries. I think
Parcells needs to make his decision and he will be better off.
They should be able to move the ball so play the starters.
Wow the Lions came alive last week when I thought it was pretty
much over for these guys. Understand that it was against the Cardinals
but they looked pretty good on offense. Jones was running like
he wanted to play and we had a Roy Williams sighting. He went
off for 117 yards and 3 TDs. Look for all that happiness to come
to a halt this weekend. The Cowboys will go home with Harrington’s
head in a duffle bag, as they will harass him all day. Look for
a few forced turnovers in this one.
Final Score: Pokes 27, Lions
17
Jacksonville (-4.5) at
Tennessee 1:00 p.m
You had to know that the Jags would take the Ravens. It was really
a matter of the Jags defense and no offense for the Ravens as
they are spinning out of control. Greg Jones is filling in nicely
and should start again this week. The real Matt Jones showed up
and put up great numbers with 117 yards and a score. They shut
down the Ravens offense (not hard) and seem to have the inside
track on one of the wild card pots. Their schedule is certainly
favorable. Look for them to have good number as they are playing
a very suspect Titans D.
Tennessee was on a bye so McNair got a chance to rest. Hopefully
he will be ready this week. They have moved the ball on offense
and Brandon Jones will be back. But this Jags D is pretty good
at stopping the pass but has had some problems with the run. So
look for the Titans to move the ball but fall pretty shot and
lose by a TD.
Final Score: Jags 24, Titans
17
Miami (+2) at Cleveland
1:00 p.m
Just a hunch but I think the Dolphins put it together and come
up with a win on the road this week. They hung in there until
the end against a depleted Patriots team but succumbed at the
end. It seems as though the Dolphins are passing the ball a little
too much but it is good from a fantasy standpoint. All the receivers
and McMichael has great games. But it took away from Brown and
Williams. They should be able to run the ball but will they is
the question.
Dilfer and the boys had no chance against the Men of Steel. Even
without Big Ben in the lineup the Steelers easily won this one
without much of a sweat. Everyone got in on rushing attack as
they ran for 150 yards with 6 people. They let Ward go crazy and
catch 124 yards worth of balls. They have to get a handle on the
passing defense because the Dolphins have some weapons and will
shoe them on Sunday.
Final Score: Dolphins 30, Browns
21
New Orleans (+10) at
New England 1:00 p.m.
The Saints come marching in to Foxboro at 2-7 against a Pats team
that squeaked out one in Miami to go 5-4. I’d be wary of
starting too many Saints offensive players against a Pats defense
that’s bound to tighten up. But since the Saints are coming
off their bye, go with Brooks and Horn but stay away from Aaron
Stecker, Dallas castoff Anthony Thomas and even Antowain Smith,
the new starter.
The Pats should open up the offense this week and get big games
from Tom Brady, Deion Branch and Ben Watson. Watch the status
of Corey Dillon, because if he can’t go this week, Heath
Evans is an okay option.
Final Score: Patriots 30, Saints
17
Oakland (+6) at Washington
1:00 p.m.
The Raiders just can’t seem to win, and the Redskins should
be heading in the same direction after losing by a point to the
Bucs. Randy Moss, Kerry Collins and Lamont Jordan have been slumping,
but look for them to get back into the flow this week for at least
a couple quarters.
The Skins have all the makings of an overachieving, Carolina-type
squad, albeit with some more age. Go with Brunell, Moss and Portis,
but steer clear of David Patten again this week. I’m still
waiting for this team to fall below .500, and after this week,
I might be waiting longer, especially if LaVar Arrington continues
to play inspired football after being benched most of the season.
Final Score: Redskins 24, Raiders
20
Philadelphia (NL) at
N.Y. Giants 1:00 p.m.
With McNabb out and Owens still at home in Atlanta fighting the
bad fight, the Eagles don’t stand too much of a chance in
Jersey this week unless they can do what the Vikings did and score
all of their TDs on defense. It makes some sense to start Brian
Westbrook and Greg Lewis, but don’t go crazy with the
accouterments unless you have to.
The Giants, on the other hand, offer their usual selection of
delectable fantasy options, topped with a special sauce of rage
from last week. Go with Manning, Barber, Burress and Shockey.
While there’s no line, it would probably favor the Giants
by less than a TD.
Final Score: Giants 30, Eagles
23
Pittsburgh (NL) at Baltimore
1:00 p.m.
When these teams lock up, it usually means the defenses will dominate
and fantasy production will slip gently into a coma for 60 minutes.
It’s hard to recommend too many starters this week, although
Steelers WR Hines Ward and Ravens RB Jamal Lewis are probably
the best options, given the offensive schemes that will be utilized.
Final Score: Steelers 17, Ravens
10
Tampa
Bay (+6) at Atlanta 1:00 p.m.
The Bucs come off a big win versus the Redskins that put them
at 6-3, while the Falcons fell to 6-3 last week after a tough
loss to the Packers. The better team is still the Falcons, but
Chris Simms showed he can play decent football and put up numbers
when given the opportunity. Start Simms, Galloway and Clayton,
and keep an eye on the RB situation as it develops this week,
although Pittman is probably the guy. The Falcons should rebound
this week with Vick, Dunn, Finneran and Crumpler posting respectable
numbers at home.
Final Score: Falcons 27, Bucs
24
Indianapolis
(-5.5) at Cincinnati 4:15 p.m.
This is undoubtedly the AFC game of the week, with the Colts facing
a test in Cincinnati, where the Bengals have the conference’s
3rd best defense. The Colts will get their usual smattering of
numbers from Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne and
Marvin Harrison, but this isn’t 2004, so Stokely and the
TEs aren’t too viable.
The Bengals have that can-do attitude that just might take them
into the AFC Championship game. On the way, QB Carson Palmer,
RB Rudi Johnson and WR Chad Johnson have been solid, with Housh
even getting in the mix once in a while. They should keep on truckin’
this week, but I think they’ll fall a little short of a
W.
Final Score: Colts 30, Bengals
24
N.Y. Jets (+13) at Denver
4:15 p.m.
The easy answer to this week’s riddle is to play everyone
you can from the Broncos and sit everybody on the Jets. It’s
not very insightful, and it’s not especially interesting,
but it’s the best advice I can give you. The Jets put up
three points in charlotte last week, and Denver isn’t any
friendlier. If you need an option for the Jets, take Curtis Martin,
but anybody else and you’ll be grasping at straws. The Broncos
fantasy starters should include everybody — Plummer, Anderson,
Bell, Smith and Lelie.
Final Score: Broncos 31, Jets
10
Seattle
(-12.5) at San Francisco 4:05 p.m.
Shaun Alexander is just going crazy. He just keeps scoring touchdowns
and pretty much putting the Seahawks on his back. Pay the man
for goodness sakes. They completely dominated the Rams and are
looking to seal the deal for the title in the West. They are looking
at home field as well. Even without a top tier receiver they will
easily handle the 49ers by well into a double-digit deficit.
The 49ers were game against the Bears but the leaky defense just
couldn’t keep the Bears from running it down their throats.
I read where Dorsey should start this week so if you are desperate
give it shot. With no offense and an injured and broken down defense
this should be ugly. A stat to note: Cody Pickett- 1/13 for 28
yards. One freakin completion?? For the whole game?
Final Score: Seahawks 32, 49ers
14
Buffalo at San Diego
(-10.5) 4:15 p.m
Seems like a lot of points to give. The Bills have just been horrible
on defense and they will have a lot of trouble with LT and his
band of maniacs. They should score at will and run up and down
the field. Look for LT to have a huge game with many TDs. The
defense should make some plays as well as Losman might be prone
to push it on the road. I would try and stray away from any offensive
players from the Bills except for McGahee.
LT and his gang had the week off and it was well deserved. They
have to win this game if they want to have any chance of making
the playoffs. The problem is that their schedule is a brutal one
and the Jags schedule is not. I think they are aware of this and
understand that they have no room to maneuver with games like
this. Look for them to control throughout and win this one going
away.
Final Score: Chargers 31, Bills
16
Kansas City (-6.5) at
Houston 8:30 p.m.
After last week’s debacle in Buffalo, the Chiefs should
be ready to put some points on the board and get back to 6-4.
Trent Green, whose hideous, 3 INT-performance against the Bills
rattled fantasy owners everywhere, will get back to top form this
week against a bad Houston defense. Play Green, Larry Johnson,
Tony Gonzalez and Eddie Kennison, who is bound for output similar
to his numbers in San Diego during Week 8. The Texans have David
Carr and Andre Johnson, but watch the injury to Domanick Davis
and play Jonathan Wells if he can’t go. These guys just
don’t offer too many options.
Final Score: Chiefs 34, Texans
17
Minnesota at Green Bay
(-4.5) 9:00 p.m.
Sam Gado is now the toast of fantasy football and cheese heads.
This guy is no joke as he proved this week with a 103 yard; 2
TD performance. He is a workhorse. You gotta love Favre and the
way he keeps fighting. Now that the running game is in order I
think they are a much more formidable team. Donald Driver is a
good play for the rest of the way, as they have no other WR that
scares anyone. I like them at home and think they come to play.
The Vikings have played much better and won a couple of games
in a row. They really stole one in the Meadowlands and played
harder than I have seen them play all year. At the end of the
day it was Eli’s 4 picks and not the Vikings that put them
over the top. Because offensively they did absolutely nothing.
Johnson had 144 yards and no scores. They had a total of 12 yards
rushing. From what I hear, Moore will be starting again.
Final Score: Packers 27, Vikings
17
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