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Week 14
12/8/05
Last Week's Projections
(14-2) Straight Up - 87.5%
(13-3) Against The Spread - 81.2%
Chicago at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
1:00 p.m
There is a bunch of nervous folks in Steel Town this week.
After losing the division lead and getting thumped by the Bengals
there must be some self-reflection going on in that locker room.
It looks as though the running game is not going as planned however
Parker will start again this week. Unless he coughs up the rock
and then I guarantee he will be riding the pine. However I see positives
on the horizon as there is nothing more dangerous than a team at
home with their backs against the wall. Look for the defense to
set the tone and the men od steel to come home with a win.
The Bears keep rolling on with wins although there is no glamour
with this team. They continue their streak even with the lowest
rated QB in the game. I have a feeling that Grossman is getting
better and might get some playing time if Orton struggles this week.
The Show has a feeling he will. The Bears have not seen a team that
has as much firepower as the Steelers just yet and I think they
may come in and get thumped.
Final Score: Steelers 20, Bears
13
Cleveland at Cincinnati (12.5)
1:00 p.m
Not much to look at here. The Bengals have the obvious edge,
as there is no way anyone can stop this offense. They go into Pittsburgh
and throw up 38 after previously putting up as much against a great
Colts defense. This offense is a fantasy dream right now and they
will continue to light up the scoreboard against the Browns. Look
for a little bit from this defense, as they should get some turnovers
against Frye.
The Browns are playing out the year on cruise control but showed
some signs of life against a Byron-less Jaguars team. But I think
on the road they are 1-5 and just can’t score the 30 points
it will take to beat the Bengals. But I like their future with Frye
and it is just a matter of time before Romeo puts it together.
Final Score: Bengals 30, Browns
10
Houston (+6.5) at Tennessee
1:00 p.m
I probably will regret this upset of the week but I think the
Texans are playing better. They should have beaten the Ravens
on the road. Baltimore is a tough place to play. Carr was exactly
the most efficient I have ever witnessed but we saw a D Davis
sighting last week with 155 yards rushing. Andre Johnson seems
to be scoring as well. I just think they will put up some points
against the Titans and I wasn’t impressed with their showing
at Indy.
As mentioned above the Titans got slaughtered as the 12th victim
in the Colts run for perfection. They had no chance from the get-go
and Manning took a seat for much of the 4th quarter. They had
no running game and McNair got hurt. The Titans will put up some
points against Houston so look for this to be a fun game to watch
but I think the Texans may have improved more at this point than
the Titans... just a hunch.
Final Score: Texans 27, Titans
24
Indianapolis (-8.5) at
Jacksonville 1:00 p.m.
There is a lot of sweating going on in fantasyland as the Colts
remain undefeated but will wrap up home field with a win this
weekend. The only chance that owners will have to get Manning
in week 16 is to have them keep winning. Which I think will happen
this week. Unlike other folks I see NO WAY that Dungy rests this
team with history on the line. He would regret that for the rest
of his life. Plus the players will not allow him to do it. This
team is by far playing the best ball at this point and I just
don’t think they can be stopped until they find a team that
can stay with this offense. They won’t see that until the
playoffs. Look for the usual suspects to have a good game. Manning,
James, Harrison, Wayne, Clark etc.
The Jags pulled one out against the Browns. Quite frankly this
team should not be resorting to pulling one out as they are clearly
better than the Browns. However I think it will take Garrard some
time to get things in order. He will start again this week but
I think he will have some serious trouble moving the ball. Freeney
and the gang are licking their lips. Look for him to make some
mistakes. I hear that Taylor will play but don’t look for
him to start or have crazy stats in this game. As a matter of
fact I would leave this offense alone.
Final Score: 31, Jags 17
New England (-3) at Buffalo
1:00 p.m.
Although I believe — at least in general — that this
may be the week of the upset, The Patriots have way too much pride
to drop a late-season game in Buffalo. The weather won’t
bother them, since they actually excel in cold and snow, and the
Buffalo defense has always had trouble shutting down Tom Brady.
The Patriots, who now have both Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk back,
are a much more effective team (big surprise) with a viable ground
game. You just never know — these Patriots might just be
there to face the Colts in the AFC championship again this year.
This week, I like Brady, Dillon, Branch, Givens and Watson. The
Bills might get good games from Losman, McGahee and Lee Evans,
who blew up last week, but they are not going to score like they
did versus Miami, who shut down the run but opened up the air
for three scores. I see another close game this week, but the
Pats emerging as winners.
Final Score: Pats 30, Bills
24
Oakland (-3) at N.Y.
Jets 1:00 p.m.
Both these teams are positively hopeless. This game doesn’t
matter from and NFL perspective, but from a fantasy slant, it’s
certainly an opportunity to get a few points totals to bolster
your late-season charge. The Raiders haven’t done much right,
but against the Jets, Jordan and Moss are okay options. Even Jerry
Porter, with just one TD in his last four games, is due for another
good performance. Kerry Collins, however, won’t likely be
the starter on Sunday, as Norv Turner will probably go with Marques
Tuiasosopo. Stay away from the QB until further notice. The Jets
are almost completely useless, with the possible exception of
Martin and Coles. I still wouldn’t start them.
Final Score: Raiders 20, Jets
13
St. Louis (+7) at Minnesota
1:00 p.m.
These are two teams going in opposite directions. The Rams have
lost three of their last four, beating only Houston. The Vikings
have won their last five and six of their last seven. While it’s
probably not a great idea to start Ryan Fitzpatrick, It’s
still an option. The Vikings won’t be as brutal to him as
the Redskins were. Jackson, Holt and Bruce are also okay starts
this week. I have a feeling the Vikings won’t win their
sixth straight, if for any other reasons than league parity and
luck. I still like Johnson, Moore, Wiggins and Marcus Robinson,
whose 3-32-0 last week wasn’t quite as electric as his 3-32-3
the week before. Burleson is also an option, but Johnson seems
to spread it around a lot.
Final Score: Rams 24, Vikings
20
Tampa Bay (+5) at Carolina
1:00 p.m.
With the playoffs in sight for both teams, this is a very important
matchup. The Bucs won’t see a huge game from QB Chris Simms,
but he’s getting the job done, for the most part. Expect
solid performances from Cadillac and Galloway, but nobody else
has been consistent enough to start against the Panthers. Carolina
has won eight of its last nine and leads the NFC South. Home field
throughout the playoffs is a distinct possibility, and these guys
will come to play this week. Start Delhomme, Foster, and Smith.
Final Score: Panthers 23, Bucs
17
N.Y. Giants (-8) at Philadelphia
4:05 p.m.
Given the importance of the game and the situation in Philly,
this one should be all Giants, all day. I hate to keep saying
“I told you so” to Philly fans, but they’ve
been pretty quiet this year and I figured I should just reiterate
after that debacle on Monday night. To the entire city of Philadelphia
and all its silly fanatics: Where you go this year? You all talked
a lot of smack last year and I haven’t heard a peep in 2005.
The Giants have a slew of viable fantasy options, including Eli
Manning, Barber, Burress, and Shockey. Keep going with all of
them until you have a reason to avoid them. The Eagles don’t
have much in terms of a passing game, and Brian Westbrook has
been pretty unproductive this year. The Giants have been tough
lately, so go with Westbrook only if you are desperate.
Final Score: Giants 34, Eagles
14
Miami
(+13) at San Diego 4:15 p.m.
Okay, okay. The Dolphins aren’t that bad. But can they keep
up with the Chargers? Probably not, although Chris Chambers seems
to be back as a decent option once again. Just about every game
the Bolts are involved in is a scoring bonanza, so go with the
main stars from both teams. The Dolphins should get good performances
from Chambers, Williams and McMichael, but don’t go nuts
and start Frerotte or Rosenfels. The Chargers have responded to
critics each week with huge numbers from Tomlinson and solid stats
in varying degrees from Brees, Gates and McCardell. Keep them
on the field and keep going until they get hurt.
Final Score: Chargers 33, Dolphins
24
Baltimore
(+14) at Denver 4:15 p.m.
The Ravens are a team without much to play for, but they still
never seem to completely give up. Ray Lewis is out for the remainder
of the season with a hamstring injury, and the offense is in shambles.
This week, I like Jamal Lewis and Derrick Mason, but nobody else.
The Broncos might not win by 14 this week, but they should squeak
one out, as the Ravens don’t have the firepower to keep
up. I like Plummer, Anderson, Smith and Putzier. Denver has an
outside shot at getting 1,000 yards this season to both Anderson
and Bell, but this week’s matchup with Baltimore probably
won’t help that cause too much.
Final Score: Broncos 23, Ravens
13
San Francisco at Seattle
(-16) 4:05 p.m
This is another route on the way. Seattle is closing in on home
field and will take another step this week. Unlike the history
making Colts I would be concerned that Alexander does not make
it through the year. He will rest as soon as they have everything
locked up. He might not sit an entire game put maybe a few quarters.
The defense is causing some fantasy owners to look at them after
returning three turnovers for TDs against the Eagles. All good
plays this week except for the fact they could blow them out by
halftime.
The 9ers hung in there against the Cardinals however you can’t
let someone through for 354 yards in your backyard and win a game.
Especially when you throw 3 picks and a fumble lost. Boldin and
Fitz went nuts on this defense so why not Seattle?? They will
put up so many points that the defense will put huge pressure
on Smith and the cracking will begin. A sleeper.
Final Score: Seahawks 35, 49ers
14
Washington
at Arizona (+4) 4:05 p.m
Am I the only one that thinks this will be a good game to watch?
I like to see Warner throwing with some smoke behind it and I
love the Cardinals receivers. Boldin seems to be grasping his
status as the teams #1 guy. He has double digit catches for two
weeks in a row. They still have no running game but they have
to protect Warner for them to have a chance. Here is saying I
think they will and pull off another upset. Warner, Boldin, Fitz
are again all good plays in this one.
The Skins are a disinterested bunch. Sometimes they look dominant.
As in last weeks win against a crippled Rams team. Or they look
like they are ready to pack it in this season. Brunell has slowed
down as I heard MVP talk at the first of this season. Also if
you were banking a Santana Moss to keep up his 2000 yard pace
you were stupid as well. I tried to warn you earlier. This team
will run and run and run. They will sputter this week though but
Portis will have 100 and they lose by a field goal.
Final Score: Zona 24, Skins
21
Kansas City (+3) at
Dallas 4:15 p.m
Big win last week for Vermeil and the Chiefs. They really needed
that one to stay in the hunt. Larry Johnson is the real deal so
far but must do some more magic against a Dallas team that is
not so bad against the run. But neither was Denver. Also they
are facing a team that simply must win. This should be fun and
I think it will be close. Look for the Chiefs to try and throw
more as I think that will determine their success. Dallas is not
a team that you can just run over.
The Pokes missed a golden opportunity to take control and got
completely manhandled against the G-Men. Bledsoe is starting to
show a little age and hasn’t thrown for over 250 in about
a month. They must figure out a way to pierce this Chiefs defense
that can be thrown on. However running might prove difficult.
I will go out a limp here and say that Bledsoe put up 300 in this
one. Just a hunch but they will need to keep up with the Chiefs
offense and as said above the Chiefs do a pretty good job against
the run.
Final Score: Pokes 23, Chiefs
21
Detroit at Green Bay
(-6) 8:30 p.m
I will be happy to stay up on Sunday and watch this one. Just
kidding this game will suck big time and will be a big waste of
time. But you will see Favre try and pull out the win, which will
consist of Gado trying to run and Favre trying not to throw 4
interceptions. If he didn’t have to thread the needle because
his receivers can’t get open we might not have this problem.
In any event, Favre has been a decent QB play for fantasy owners
this year so this game will probably not be any different.
Coach Dick’s beginning was a bad one as they let Johnson
throw an 80 yard TD on the first play from scrimmage and then
go on to lose 21-16. But their were signs of life. Again, just
kidding they sucked and only had about 190 yards of total offense.
Look for worse this week in cold ass Lambeau. This is not exactly
a team that is built for this kind of stuff. They crack under
the 10 degree weather and get the crap kicked out the them.
Final Score: Pack 26, Lions
13
New Orleans (+10) at
Atlanta 9:00 p.m.
Don’t overthink this matchup, although there’s a lot
of room for concern. The Saints may be bad, but they still have
decent options in Brooks, Stallworth and Horn. Antowain Smith
is a possibility, but don’t count on more than 75 and a
score. I somehow think the Saints will cover this week. The Falcons
usually put up good fantasy numbers even when they lose, although
last week was an exception. I’d go with Vick, Crumpler,
Dunn and Finneran, but there’s always a possibility Finneran
and Dunn don’t show up with more than a few points for yardage
and/or catches.
Final Score: Falcons 27, Saints
20
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