Week 17
12/30/04
Last Week's Projections
(12-4) Straight Up - 81.2%
(10-5-1) Against The Spread - 56.2%
For The Season
(153-87) Straight Up - 63.7%
(137-98-5) Against The Spread - 58.2%
Minnesota (-6) at Washington,
1:00 p.m.
This is the start of what I call the useless week. The week
where most leagues are done and those that are left have to go through
the battle of figuring out what teams will sit the stars. It is
a cumbersome process but we will give it shot. The Vikings had a
chance to put the division away last week but choked at the mere
sight of Brett Favre less than 2 minutes with the ball and timeouts.
Culpepper had some good numbers going in the first half but let
up and had no TDS in the 2nd. That hurt some owners out there. But
not near as much as Moss catching 2 balls for one TD. He was in
obvious pain and probably should not have been out there. Burleson
looks like the real deal as he had another 100-yard game and a score.
Again he had nothing in the 2nd half as well. Bennett is now the
man again in this offense and had a spectacular game both receiving
and running the ball. They will be motivated this week as if they
win they are in. Culpepper has been nursing the flu but will have
a good game. Play Moss, Bennett, and Burleson as well. Don't forget
about Wiggins as well.
The Skins got punked by a 40 year old and a rookie last week gagging
with 30 seconds on the clock. Clinton Portis got hurt and really
did nothing. Hopefully you were not counting on him in the playoffs.
He will be out as well as many Redskin starters. It will be in D.C.
so if you have tickets to the game see if you can sell them. They
will get the crap kicked out of them anyway but certainly will if
their starters don't play an entire game. I wouldn't start anyone
from this team, as they will be hard pressed to get passed the 50-yard
line. They will be lucky to score 6 points much less stay within
6.
Final Score: Vikings 28, Redskins
10
New Orleans at Carolina (-7),
1:00 p.m
This one might decide a playoff berth depending on the outcomes
of some other teams. So both teams will be laying the hammer down.
Believe it or not the Saints won a meaningful game in December.
I know you are amazed but they played inspired football. Nah, just
kidding, Coach Mora gave his friend Coach Haslett a gift and decided
not to play his best player Mr. Vick. But wait he decided to play
him this week. Strange I would think it would have been the other
way around. Mmmm. Anyway, Brooks didn't look good and threw 2 INT.
Another shocker, Brooks sucking in December. Anyone that plays him
past December 1st needs to have their head examined. McAllister
had a nice game with 128 yards and that is against a pretty darned
good Falcons defense. Horn was average in this one. They will be
fired up for this one but it won't be enough. Have a good look at
Haslett it will be your last as the coach of the Saints. Play McAllister
and Horn
The Panthers being hot is not shocker. This was a team that went
to the Super Bowl last year and is getting healthy at the right
time. They went into the mouth of the devil in Tampa and really
kicked the crap out of the Bucs. Delhomme has been great as of late
and added to his legend with 4 TDS against the Bucs. Muhammad has
to be the teams MVP and candidate for comeback player of the year.
Goings had a good game as well and rushed for 127 yards. I think
that Carolina will be motivated to win this one at home and has
the better defense. Play Goings, Delhomme, and Muhammad.
Final Score: Panthers 32, Saints
21
N.Y. Jets at St. Louis
(-2), 1:00 p.m.
This is another one where both teams have something to play for.
Neither is assured a post-season birth but both can get one with
a win. The Rams benefited from the Eagles packing it in until
the playoffs begin. They were pressed in the first quarter but
had the great Ty Detmer and Jeff Blake to deal with after that.
Bulger got back on track and played a good game. He had 225 yards
and a TD. I think it is safe to say the passing of the torch has
happened. Stephen Jackson had a great game with 147 yards and
a TD. They really need to run the ball to win this one. They just
can't rely on the pass or they will lose. Marshall Faulk still
needs to be a factor. Play Bulger, Holt, Jackson, and Bruce.
Man did any team look as bad as the Jets against the Pats? Pennington
just thought he had heard the noise from the NY media after that
performance it will only get louder. Pennington admitted afterwards
he was in pain for most the game. One can only conclude that he
is still hurt today. He had two interceptions along with a fumble
lost. Martin had his worst game of the year with only 33 yards
rushing. Hope your Super Bowl was not last week Martin owners.
I think they will have a difficult time moving the ball if Pennington
is not healthy. Look for some of the same this week. Play Martin
in this one.
Final Score: Rams 24, Jets
20
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
(-9) , 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo is favored by a load but only because the Steelers have
nothing to gain. However the Bills may be the best team anyway.
They are certainly the hottest team going into the final weekend
but will not make the playoffs. Believe me when I say there are
many teams in the AFC that are happy to see that. This team is
playing pretty scary right now. They really put the boot to a
horrible 49ers team and darn near shut them out. They scored a
weak TD with about 4 minutes to go. The Bills had it well in hand
and played all the QBS on the roster. McGahee sucked it up and
ran for 102 yards and 2 TDS. They only allowed the 49ers passed
the 50 yard line twice. They should be able to handle the Steelers
pretty easily without the starters in there. Play McGahee, Moulds,
Evans, and the Bills D
The Steelers have everything in hand and some time before they
begin their march in the playoffs. Big Ben will probably take
the week off and I figure Bettis and others will not put in much
time. All in all the Steelers played a good game against the Ravens
and held them to minimal yards. Other than a Jamal Lewis TD run
in the first quarter they really held the Ravens in check. Look
for Maddox to get most of the playing time and may have limited
success passing the ball. I think the Bills defense will probably
bring the kitchen sink to send a message. I would stay away from
any Steeler players.
Final Score: Bills 30, Steelers
20
San Francisco at New
England (-14.5), 1:00 p.m.
This is one where N.E. will probably rest some folks but it really
won't matter because the 49ers are that bad. NE really sent their
message last week against the Jets. They won 23-7 but really dominated
the game further than that. Brady had a great game. It was typical
Brady going 21/32 for 264 yards and 2 TDS. Dillon had a nice game
with 89 yards. But the real story is the second coming of Deion
Branch. He seems to be becoming Brady's favorite target again.
He had 82 yards and a score. Look for him to be a force in the
playoffs. The Pats have some holes though and look for Bill to
fill them before it starts. It would be tough to say who to start
in this one as most of the starters may only play a quarter.
The 49ers are certainly the worst team in the league. They just
looked horrible at home against the Bills. I know the Bills are
very good but you would think they could at least score a TD before
garbage time. Barlow has got to be the biggest bust of the year.
He just couldn't get used to being the big man on campus. Without
a decent passing game and defense you just can't do it all. The
49ers will be terrible for years to come and we will see what
changes are made in the off-season. They will get pummeled in
this game the same as last week.
Final Score: Pats 30, 49ers
10
Cincinnati (-3) at Philadelphia,
1:00 p.m.
I don't believe in resting your starters on their laurels once
you've clinched home field advantage in the playoffs, but Andy
Reid seems to think it will somehow transform his team into NFC
Champions. Since the football gods has frowned upon the Eagles
for the last three straight NFC Championship games, I would imagine
they'd do anything to prevent offending them any further. But
what else would you expect from a city that delights in opposing
injuries and boos the best draft pick the city ever made? Let's
not forget that Philly fans wanted the brass to select Ricky Williams
instead of McNabb, people. Just a note about Reggie White, who
passed away this weekend at 43. I wasn't thrilled by White's religious
fanaticism, but his ubiquitous presence on the football field
was enrapturing. If White was still playing with the Eagles against
the Rams on Monday Night, he would have voiced his discontent
like Ike Reese and a couple other veterans who know that losses
are hard to swallow and can't be risked before heading into the
playoffs. With just 16 games on the schedule, no game is truly
meaningless.
The Bengals have three guys on offense worth playing this week
- WR Chad Johnson, RB Rudi Johnson and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
With Carson Palmer questionable and interceptions likely for him
or whomever replaces him, I'd stay away from the QB situation.
On defense, it's safe to assume that LB Brian Simmons and DB Madieu
Williams will be the best two.
The Eagles offense is completely up in the air because of the
starter situation, which means I'd stick to playing K David Akers
and nobody else. On defense, Jeremiah Trotter is probably the
only safe bet.
Final Score: Bengals 20, Eagles
16
Cleveland (+10.5) at
Houston, 1:00 p.m.
Who knows? This game is just meaningless enough that both teams
will probably play their butts off and score a lot of points while
they are doing it. There aren't too many complications with this
game, since it's kind of like a week one battle between two teams
with few prospects.
The Browns have some point scoring possibilities with RB Lee Suggs,
WR Dennis Northcutt and WR Antonio Bryant, players that could
all score against the weak Houston defense. IDP options include
LB Barry Gardner, DB Anthony Henry and DB Robert Griffith.
The Texans could finish 8-8 and probably will, albeit against
a very poor Browns team. Start David Carr, RB Domanick Davis and
WR Andre Johnson, all solid options this week. On defense, there's
LB Jamie Sharper, LB Kailee Wong and DB Dunta Robinson.
Final Score: Texans 31, Browns
17
Detroit (-3) at Tennessee,
1:00 p.m.
Again - who really cares? While there may be fantasy implications,
this game doesn't necessarily get the blood boiling.
The Lions have just two offensive players worthy of fantasy starts
- Kevin Jones and Roy Williams. I can't see giving QB Joey Harrington
a start with his probable status and penchant for throwing picks
against even bad defenses. IDP options include LB James Davis,
LB Earl Holmes and DB Brock Marion.
The Titans have a new fantasy superstar in Drew Bennett, who has
30 receptions for 543 yards and 8 TD in his last four games, even
with a 2-26-0 performance last week against Denver. With Bennett
questionable, you should stay tuned to the injury report until
gametime. There's also QB Billy Volek, who should play, an injured
WR Derrick Mason and RB Antowain Smith. Just watch the report,
folks, therein lies the answer. The only sure IDP option is LB
Keith Bulluck, just about the only guy on this team that's not
hurt.
Final Score: Titans 23, Lions
17
Green Bay (+3) at Chicago,
1:00 p.m.
Even though Green Bay has clinched, you won't see Brett Favre
taking this game off. Good ol' Brett has a great relationship
with the football gods and he's right in line for a nice performance
to cap off the year.
The Packers should see good games from Favre, Javon Walker, Donald
Driver and RB Tony Fisher, who should shoulder most of the load
instead of Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. TE Bubba Franks may
also be a good play, although he is not that successful on the
road. IDP options include LB Nick Barnett, lineman KGB and DB
Darren Sharper.
The Bears have RB Thomas Jones, and that's about it. I'm really
sorry, but what can I say? Everyone else is way to inconsistent
to warrant a tart. On defense, I like a few guys, including DB
Jerry Azumah, LB Lance Briggs, LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (watch his
ankle injury) and DB Mike Green.
Final Score: Packers 24, Bears
13
Miami
(+10) at Baltimore, 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore needs a few things to happen to get into the playoffs,
and I doubt they'll be very successful moving the ball against
Miami.
The Dolphins should see their usual games from WR Chris Chambers
and TE Randy McMichael, with mediocrity from the rest of the offense.
Defensively, there are the big three, including DB Sammy Knight,
LB Zach Thomas and DL Jason Taylor, but keep an eye on the availability
of Thomas and Taylor.
The Ravens will get decent performances from RB Jamal Lewis and
Todd Heap (if he plays), but don't expect much offense other than
that. On defense, LB Ray Lewis is questionable, but is worthy
of a start since he'll most likely play. Other IDP options include
DB Ed Reed, LB Terrell Suggs and Adalius Thomas.
Final Score: Ravens 17, Dolphins
10
Jacksonville
(NL) at Oakland, 4:15 p.m.
I really can't see the Raiders beating Jacksonville this week
with Byron Leftwich back from his concussion. The Jags need this
win more than any they've had this year and I don't believe they'll
let their fans down.
The Jaguars will see good games from Leftwich, RB Fred Taylor
(watch the injury report) and WR Jimmy Smith, with the best defensive
starts from LB Mike Peterson, LB Akin Ayodele and DB Donovin Darius.
The Raiders have nothing to play for except spoiler, but will
see something out of WR Jerry Porter and one of their running
backs. It's just too hard to tell who it will be, since Amos Zereoue,
Justin Fargas and Zack Crockett split the carries. Kerry Collins
may have trouble cracking the Jacksonville secondary, which plays
tough in big AFC games. On defense, I like DL Tyler Brayton, LB
Napoleon Harris and LB Danny Clark.
Final Score: Jaguars 20, Raiders
17
Kansas City (-3) at
San Diego, 4:15 p.m.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry, and neither does Dick Vermeil.
It's fun to watch the Chargers having such success, and the Chiefs
faltering. Actually, Vermeil will cry, you can almost bet on it.
The Chiefs frustration level must be at an all-time high, since
they've got all the weapons but no defense, a story as old as
Vermeil. Go with Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison and
Tony Gonzalez. IDP options include DB Greg Wesley and LBs Kavika
Mitchell, Monty Beisel and Scott Fujita.
The Chargers should stay focused heading into the playoffs, although
Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Eric Parker
may see limited playing time in this one. You have to hope that
Marty Schottenheimer doesn't come from the Andy Reid school of
moronic decision making. On defense, there's LB Donnie Edwards,
DB Terrence Kiel and DB Quentin Jammer.
Final Score: Chargers 30, Chiefs
24
Atlanta
at Seattle (-6 ½), 4:05 p.m
The say that Vick may play in this one. I doubt it will be for
long. You don't risk the playoffs for a meaningless week 17th
game. The Falcons let the Saints win last weeks game as they really
just played the four quarters like zombies. The only bright spot
was Dunn who had 139 yards of offense and a TD. He did this in
only 3 quarters. I would say your best bet would be to play Dunn
and hope for the best. There is just not going to be enough offense
coming from the Falcons.
The Seahawks have a little something to play for. It is called
a division title. It is simple for them. If they win they are
the champs. So I think they will come with all guns blazing for
this one. Those of you that were as unfortunate as I was to have
to go against Alexander in the Super Bowl game can feel my pain.
He had a slow start but a remarkable 2nd half. He rushed for a
total of 154 yards and 3 TDS. He is as consistent as they come
and if you need a keeper he is a good option. Darrell Jackson
actually held on to some balls that hit his hands and caught 6
balls for 101 yards. Hasselbeck didn't play against the Cardinals
and it has not been determined if he will play this week. Go with
him, Alexander, and Jackson.
Final Score: Seahawks 27, Falcons
20
Tampa Bay (-2) at Arizona,
4:05 p.m
I like Arizona to be a sleeper next year. They have played admirably
considering they have a new coach and some injuries. Give Green
some weapons and they might make some noise next year. However
this is 2004 and literally got ran over by Alexander. They held
him for a few quarters but allowed him to take over in the 2nd
half. They still had enough courage to try and come back in the
fourth. They have no quit in them. Boldin and Fitzgerald should
have good games as the Bucs have been known to allow some passes
this year. But they will have a difficult time running the ball.
Play Boldin.
The Bucs just could not hang with the Panthers offense as it was
hitting on all cylinders on Sunday. Griese has had decent stats
and did in this one. He passed for 321 yards and 2 TDS but did
make some critical mistakes with 2 INTS. The more I watch him
play the more I think he will be the Bucs QB for next year and
give Simms some more grooming. Pittman will have a good game running
the ball, as the Cardinals really cannot stop anyone. I would
play Griese, Pittman, Galloway, and Clayton.
Final Score: Bucs 23, Cardinals
20
Indianapolis at Denver
(-5.5), 4:15 p.m.
The man named Manning finally surpassed Marino throwing his 49th
TD pass of the season. He had some trouble until the 4th quarter.
Listen folks the Chargers are for real. They have the weapons
and came OT away from beating the Colts. In any event the Colts
played some good ball with Manning throwing for 383 yards and
2 TDS. Three receivers went over 1000 yards on one team for the
first time in history. Stokely had another wonderful game with
123 yards and 1 TD. Harrison added another 111 yards. I would
start Stokley maybe. The rest will get some time off this week.
Denver on the other hand has their playoff lives to play for and
may meet the Colts again next week if they get in. Which means
the season will end next week at the latest. Denver has no chance
against the Colts next week however will be able to handle them
this week. Quite frankly I do not even remember who the backup
QB doe the Colts is. Not even the turnover machine Jake Plummer
can screw this one up. By the way they played a great game against
the Titans. Play Plummer, Smith, Droughns, and Lelie.
Final Score: Broncos 24, Colts
17
Dallas (+2.5) at N.Y.
Giants, 8:30 p.m.
As a Dallas fan, I desperately don't want to finish at 6-10 deadlocked
with the Giants, and I'm sure Bill Parcells shares those sentiments.
The Cowboys should see good games from RB Julius Jones, QB Vinny
Testaverde, WR Keyshawn Johnson and TE Jason Witten, who made
the Pro Bowl this year in just his second season. IDP options
include LB Day Nguyen, DL Greg Ellis and DB Roy Williams.
The Giants have lots of injuries and will be forced to rely on
RB Tiki Barber for almost all their offensive production. Playing
anyone else might be silly, considering injuries to Jeremy Shockey
and Amani Toomer. On defense, the Giants have gotten the best
performances recently from LB Nick Greisen, LB Carlos Emmons and
DB Will Peterson.
Final Score: Cowboys 31, Giants
20
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