While a large percentage of rankings do not fluctuate much between
standard scoring leagues and point per reception (PPR) leagues,
there are a number of players whose value improves significantly
when receptions are added to the scoring equation. I believe the
following players stand to gain the most value when going from a
standard scoring league to a PPR league. This is not to say that
these players are the most valuable players in PPR leagues, but
they are the ones whose value increases the most when receptions
are counted as a point.
RB
Darren Sproles, NO
Standard ADP: 3.11
PPR ADP: 2.12
It is tough to talk about PPR-league players without highlighting
Darren Sproles, who has made a nice career of catching balls out
of the backfield. In standard scoring leagues, managers may shy
away from Sproles since he does not get a lot of touchdowns and
his carries have been very sporadic throughout his career. In PPR
leagues, however, Sproles is an absolute stud, catching 161 balls
in just 29 games with the Saints over the past two seasons. With
the return of Sean Payton, the Saints, whose offense sputtered at
times last season, should once again be high-scoring and explosive,
and Sproles should be a big part of that. Look for Sproles to come
pretty close to the numbers he put up two seasons ago under Payton,
where he caught 86 balls for 710 yards. Even at his late-second-round
ADP, Sproles presents nice value as a centerpiece in what should
be a high-powered passing offense.
RB
Giovani Bernard, CIN
Standard ADP: 6.02
PPR ADP: 5.08
It’s tough to judge what kind of role rookie running backs
will carve out for themselves since college production is not always
an indicator of how they will be used or whether they will rise
to the occasion in the NFL. In the case of Bengals running back
Giovani Bernard, however, the stars may be aligning perfectly to
make him an excellent PPR player, especially as a value at his current
late-fifth-round ADP. While veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis is expected
to be the Week 1 starter and get the early-down carries, the Law
Firm is nowhere near as naturally talented as Bernard, especially
in the open field and the passing game (BJGE has just 48 career
receptions in 68 games). Even if Green-Ellis somehow manages to
hang on to the official starter job all year, there should be plenty
of work for Bernard, who should be the Bengals' third-down and change-of-pace
back right from the get-go. In addition, Bernard has lined up as
a wideout in some formations this offseason and thus may be on the
field nearly as much as a fulltime back would be anyway. In two
seasons in college, Bernard hauled in 92 passes for 852 yards. And
while the Bengals run a bit more conservative offense, the opportunities
should easily be there for a 45-catch season and a few hundred yards
on the ground, with some long touchdowns thanks to his explosive
ability. With A.J. Green taking the top off the defense, look for
a lot of dump-off passes aimed at Bernard this season.
Shane Vereen is the favorite to fill the
PPR void of Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead.
RB
Shane Vereen, NE
Standard ADP: 6.07
PPR ADP: 5.09
Shane Vereen didn’t see a ton of action last year but looked
pretty good when his number was called. This season his number is
bound to be called a lot more with the loss of Wes Welker, Aaron
Hernandez, and especially Danny Woodhead. Vereen has been lining
up all over the field in training camp, including out of the slot,
on the outside, in the backfield, and in motion. It is clear the
Pats want to get Vereen involved, and it is likely a lot of that
action will be through the air. Stevan Ridley will almost surely
be the early-down and goal-line back, but look for Vereen to be
in on third downs and passing downs, while occasionally getting
the call to run the rock. Even if Vereen doesn’t get a ton
of touchdowns this year, look for at least 50 receptions and 500
receiving yards, making him an excellent flex play or bye-week fill-in
with upside in PPR leagues.
RB
Danny Woodhead, SD
Standard ADP: 10.02
PPR ADP: 8.12
Sometimes moving to a weaker offense can actually be a good thing,
as is most likely the case for Danny Woodhead this year. In New
England, Woodhead was often the third or fourth option out of the
backfield for much of his three-year tenure. In San Diego, however,
Woodhead has a real shot at being second on the depth chart and
the primary third-down back in an offense that will probably throw
a lot of dink-and-dunk passes. The Chargers have been looking for
someone to fill the Darren Sproles role ever since Sproles left
for New Orleans in 2011, and Woodhead may be just what they need.
In Sproles’ last season with the Chargers, he caught 59 balls
for 520 yards to go along with 267 yards on the ground. I believe
these numbers—and perhaps a bit more —are easily achievable
for Woodhead this year, especially if Ryan Matthews struggles early
and Woodhead is relied on more for early-down work. While Woodhead's
touchdown numbers probably won’t blow you away, in a PPR league
he is certainly a good value at his current ADP, even with his going
a round and a half earlier than in standard scoring leagues.
RB
Ronnie Hillman, DEN
Standard ADP: 9.07
PPR ADP: 8.07
The Denver backfield committee is one of the more interesting situations
to monitor for fantasy purposes, and Ronnie Hillman should be a
big part of what is produced there. Although Hillman only caught
10 balls last year (on 12 targets), much of this was due to a lack
of experience in pass protection and the fact that he was a rookie
(Coach Fox normally relies on veterans). This year Hillman projects,
at the very least, as the change-of-pace back in an explosive offense
led by Peyton Manning. Hillman has reportedly improved his pass
protection skills and is even currently listed as the Broncos' number
one running back, although rookie Montee Ball is expected to get
a lot of early-down work. Although the situation is a bit sticky
with a lot of talent, both in the backfield and in the receiving
corps, Hillman provides nice upside and good value as a mid- to
late-eighth-round pick in PPR leagues. Regardless of how the backfield
depth chart plays out, he should get a minimum of 35 catches, with
some explosive after-the-catch ability to break a few long touchdown
runs.
WR
Calvin Johnson, DET
Standard ADP: 1.09
PPR ADP: 1.07
Everybody knows that Megatron is already a fantasy stud, and I
realize the difference in ADP is very slight here, but I personally
have done several mock PPR drafts and one real PPR draft this
year where Johnson has actually been selected first or second
overall. Last season Johnson was targeted a league-high 205 times
and caught a league-high 122 balls. The Lions are still going
to pass a ton, and while Johnson may lose a few catches to the
newly acquired Reggie Bush and the possible emergence of Ryan
Broyles, he is still a safe bet for 100-plus catches. On top of
the plentiful points you will get from all the catches, Johnson's
five receiving touchdowns last year was very low for so many catches,
meaning it was probably a fluke. Look for Calvin to double his
touchdown total from last year while only slightly dropping off
in other statistics. Johnson is easily worthy of a top 5 pick
in PPR leagues as one of the safest bets out there.
TE
Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Standard ADP: 6.05
PPR ADP: 5.09
Most non-quarterbacks that are 37 years old (there aren't too
many of them!) are usually looked at as fantasy non-factors. But
in the case of Tony Gonzalez, he is not only a productive player
but a PPR-league stud at the TE position. What is even more strange
about Gonzalez’s situation is that he may be the third best
option in the Falcons' passing game, yet he could easily wind
up a top 3 fantasy TE in PPR leagues. While Gonzalez is not the
deep threat he may have once been, and double-digit touchdowns
are probably far in the rearview mirror, he is a catching machine,
registering 70 or more catches in 10 straight years, including
an impressive 93 last year. What’s just as impressive and
reassuring for fantasy managers is that Gonzalez has amazingly
missed only two games in his 16-year career. While 93 catches
is not likely to happen this season, Gonzalez is probably the
safest bet outside of Jimmy Graham at TE, and 75-plus catches
is practically a lock. In PPR leagues Gonzalez is about as safe
as they come, and he might actually be a bargain as the fifth
TE currently being taken.
TE
Jason Witten, DAL
Standard ADP: 5.11
PPR ADP: 4.12
Among the top 20 leaders in receptions last season, Jason Witten
had the lowest touchdown total (3) and the lowest yards-per-reception
average (9.4). On the other hand, he led all TEs in receptions
and had more targets than all but seven other players in the NFL.
This discrepancy in statistics is probably why Witten’s
PPR ADP is projecting nearly a full round earlier than it is in
a standard scoring format. While last year’s 110 receptions
(highest of his career) will most likely not be repeated, Witten
is the essence of consistency at the TE position, averaging over
90 catches the past six years and missing only one game in his
10-year career. There are certainly flashier names at the TE position,
along with guys that are faster and catch more TDs, but in a PPR
league you would be hard-pressed to find a more reliable guy to
produce the kind of numbers Witten will give you. At nearly a
fifth-round ADP (in PPR leagues), Witten is actually a bargain
right now. He's being taken after several WRs who had at least
25 less receptions than he did last year.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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