If you are a hardcore fantasy manager like me, with access to the
24/7 news cycle and taking advantage of every resource available,
chances are the idea of a “deep sleeper” is foreign
to you. You probably know every offensive player on every roster
and some sort of argument for or against that player becoming fantasy
relevant. I get it, I’m with you. For the less fanatical,
however, the idea of a deep sleeper still exists and is, in fact,
an important part of having a successful fantasy season.
For this exercise, I have decided to pick 5 players that could
make an important impact on the 2023 fantasy season. To truly
make them “deep” sleepers I am going to only look
at players currently being drafted after Round 12, in a 12 team
half-point PPR league (pick 145 or later). I feel these players
have the right amount of upside that could contribute greatly
to you winning your league if their situation breaks the right
way.
I know what your first thought may be; rookie tight ends rarely
make a splash in Year 1. I get it. However, LaPorta looks to have
the right mix of talent and opportunity to buck the trend this
season.
LaPorta was drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2nd round of this
year’s draft, coming out Iowa, where he set the school record
for career receptions at the position. This is saying quite a
bit considering guys like George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson and Noah
Fant all attended Iowa in the past 10 years. LaPorta offers a
nice mix of athleticism and production and is almost certainly
going to start the season as a starter.
LaPorta has a few things going for him that should lead to early
success. First, there is no solidified pass catcher behind Amon-Ra
St. Brown. Jameson Williams showed nothing last year after coming
back from injury, and is suspended six games, while also reportedly
struggling in training camp. Marvin Jones is 33 and not much more
than a situational deep threat at this stage of his career.
LaPorta will step into the role that T.J. Hockenson held last
year for 10 games before being traded to the Vikings. In that
10-game span, Hockenson averaged nearly 9 targets a game as Jared
Goff’s security blanket when St. Brown was covered. With
the 12th most pass attempts in the NFL last year fueled by negative
game scripts, there are plenty of targets to go around thanks
to Detroit’s poor defense.
The final thing going in LaPorta’s favor is he may not
be asked to block much, as the Lions boast one of the league’s
best offensive lines and have Brock Wright who is more of a traditional
blocking tight end. This leads me to believe LaPorta the main
route-running tight end and even used in the slot a bit, as he
has been this summer. LaPorta has reportedly had an excellent
training camp and should produce numbers far exceeding his current
ADP.
Collins has a lot going for him this year after improving in
his sophomore year of 2022. Going into his third season, Collins
should have improved quarterback play, after the team drafted
C.J. Stroud in the first round of the NFL Draft. From multiple
reports, the two have already built some chemistry this summer
and Collins has come up with multiple highlight reel-type catches
that should only increase Stroud’s confidence in targeting
the 6’4’’ wideout downfield.
Secondly, Collins is now unquestionably the team’s number
one receiver, after being behind Brandin Cooks the past two seasons.
Only 31-year-old Robert Woods, and multiple undersized, slot-type
receivers are competition. With one of the league’s worst
defenses, the Texans should find themselves in their fair share
of negative game scripts and Collins profiles as the perfect guy
to take deep shots with when you’re feeling desperate. The
improvement Collins made from rookie to sophomore was apparent
in multiple metrics and betting on his continued ascension in
his third year seems like a reasonable gamble. Currently being
drafted as WR60, Collins is easily in my top 45 receivers and
if Stroud can avoid too many rookie hiccups, Collins has the upside
to be a very solid WR3 this season.
Going into the 2023 NFL Draft, Evans was one of my favorite backs,
as a former five-star recruit, Evans averaged nearly 7 yards per
carry for his college career. Injuries and transfers knocked Evans
out of the spotlight but his pedigree and performance (albeit
in just 290 carries) cannot be denied. I was a bit surprised he
fell to the end of the 6th round, likely due to injury concerns,
but now is not exactly the best time to be a running back in the
NFL.
Evans has prototypical size for an NFL power back but also has
enough burst and speed to turn the corner and rip off chunk plays.
If he can shake off injury concerns, I believe he can be a true
difference-maker at the position for years to come. Evans may
start out as the RB3 on the Rams’ depth chart but would
likely be the main early-down back if starter Cam Akers were to
miss time.
Speaking of Akers, as much as I like his raw talent, there are
definitely red flags. Last year, Akers started the season off
slow as he worked his way back from an Achilles injury, and there
were even rumors he was going to be cut midway through the year.
However, Akers rebounded and finished the season strong but it
remains to be seen how much Sean McCay trusts him and how much
his injury will impact him long term. Akers is a free agent after
this season and the Rams, likely a rebuilding team, will probably
look to get their young guys more involved as the season goes
on. If Akers gets hurt or shows that his previous injury has zapped
his burst, Evans may find himself in a situation where he gets
12+ touches a game.
Currently going off the board as RB64, I think Evans is actually
one of the better handcuffs and an easy late-round pick or waiver
acquisition as a bench piece that could pay huge dividends later
in the year.
In traditional 1 quarterback leagues, I do not pay much attention
to QB’s outside of the top 15 or so but I also love to wait
on drafting the position this year (and most years), so Tannehill
fits the bill of my favorite end-of-the-draft QB to stash.
People forget that Tannehill was a solid real-life and fantasy
QB just a few short years ago, throwing 33 touchdowns, just 7
interceptions and adding 266 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground
just three seasons ago, despite playing on a run-heavy offense.
This season Tannehill has again slipped under the radar, as he
missed most of last season due to injury and the team drafted
Will Levis in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft.
Tannehill has some intriguing circumstances that lead me to believe
he is a steal at current ADP. First and foremost, he will have
the best weapons of his career after the team signed DeAndre Hopkins
who reunites with his former Houston offensive coordinator Tim
Kelly. Add to this second-year receiver Treylon Burks, a former
first round pick who flashed in his rookie year after getting
off to a slow start, and second-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo
- an uber-athletic player who should take advantage of mismatches
in the middle of the field. This trio of players should give Tannehill
a dynamic set of options to rely on, in the event they’re
forced to throw more than projected, given their weak defense
and 29-year-old running back with nearly 2000 career touches.
Tannehill, who will be playing on the last year of his contract,
has a lot to prove in order to earn another contract, and is setup
nicely to exceed expectations on a team that should remain competitive
in a weak division all year long. With plenty of motivation, great
weapons, and a history of putting up solid numbers I could see
Tannehill sneak into the back-end of the QB1 ranks on a weekly
basis despite being currently selected as a QB3 (or undrafted)
in most drafts.
Here is a true deep sleeper who is not even guaranteed a roster
spot and currently being drafted as the WR88 (or undrafted). I
expect his ADP to rise as long as Ross continues to show-out at
training camp, as he’s been doing the past few weeks.
Ross has had one of the more interesting paths and remains one
of the more polarizing prospects of the past few years. A highly-regarded
high school player, Ross turned down Alabama to attend Clemson,
where he looked like a top NFL prospect after his first two seasons.
Then disaster struck, as a spinal condition sidelined Ross for
his junior season and while he returned the following year, he
eventually went undrafted in 2022, after being considered a top-50
pick two years prior.
Signed by the Chiefs, Ross missed the entire 2022 season after
foot surgery and has only reappeared recently, as training camp
highlights begin to roll with multiple big plays by the former
Clemson receiver. The wide receiver depth chart is wide open in
Kansas City, as it is made up of the oft-injured Kadarius Toney,
the limited veteran (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) and unproven youngsters
Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice.
While Ross is not guaranteed anything, he has the best talent
of the group and is basically free in fantasy drafts. Buying a
Chiefs wide receiver is like playing the lottery - you might not
hit but if you do it could be life changing. Paired with Patrick
Mahomes, it is likely that one of these guys will have a big year
and my money is on Ross, as he has the pedigree and seems to be
making the most of his opportunity in camp. With just a tiny investment
needed, Ross could prove to be a true difference maker for your
fantasy team.
