I have been writing this piece for several years now and while I
have definitely had some big misses (too many to name), two of my
biggest hits came last year with Sam LaPorta and Nico Collins. Both
were being drafted after pick 145 this time last year and both became
league-winning players, considering the extreme value they offered
in drafts. This just goes to show that every single pick in your
draft is important, and sometimes the late-round picks can be the
MOST important. This year I have selected five more players, all
going after the 12th round (pick 145 or later) that I think can
have similar impacts to what Collins and LaPorta did last year,
while providing extreme value.
For reference, the ADP data is for 12-team, Half-PPR leagues.
Happy Drafting!
The only QB on this list, Levis is my absolute favorite late-round
QB target this year in pretty much all formats. Levis had an up
and down 2023 rookie year that started off with a four-touchdown
win in his debut, but quickly went downhill as inconsistent play
led to a 2-6 record in the rest of his starts.
Levis has the size, the arm and the gunslinger mindset to be
a fantasy force, he just needs the right situation to flourish
and this year he may have it. The Titans went out and signed Calvin
Ridley to a long-term contract and already had DeAndre Hopkins
on the roster. They also got reliable veteran Tyler Boyd and have
kept Treylon Burks, a recent 1st round pick.
With depth and talent at receiver, Levis has the weapons to be
successful, but I don't think this was the biggest factor in my
excitement for him. The change in head coach to Brian Callahan
is the biggest plus for Levis, as this team should go from slow
and run-heavy to fast paced and pass-happy right away. With big
additions to the offensive line, as well as acquiring perhaps
the league’s best offensive line coach (Bill Callahan),
the Titans should be improved in an area that hurt Levis last
season.
Also, moving away from the ground and pound of Derrick Henry,
to more versatile backs in Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard says
a lot about what this offense aims to do. Even if it is not always
pretty, Levis should have a ton of pass attempts and has the playmakers
to put up big numbers. The potential of the 2024 season for Levis
reminds me a bit of the 2019 Jameis Winston season where he threw
for over 5000 yards. While Levis may have a high number of interceptions,
I also think he could challenge for the league-lead in attempts,
yards and touchdowns, which is all music to fantasy managers ears.
I want to get a piece of the Cardinals offense but do not want
to always pay the premium of Marvin Harrison Jr. and/or Trey McBride
in the first four rounds. Enter Michael Wilson who is a solid
prospect and had a decent rookie year after being selected in
the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Wilson has size, speed and hands
and while he is a bit raw, he showed signs of development late
in the 2023 season. With Kyler Murray out much of the season with
injury, Wilson was very inconsistent but showed flashes, including
a 7/76/2 game in Week 4. Once Murray returned to the lineup, he
and Wilson played five games together -- Wilson averaged 5 targets
per game. In the final game of the season, Wilson and Murray connected
6 times on 6 targets for a season-best 95 yards.
I will not pretend Wilson is some sort of elite talent waiting
to break out, but I think he is in the perfect position to capitalize
on a team that should be extremely active in the passing game.
The Cardinals have a chance to be one of the premier offenses
in the NFL this year with a healthy Murray, an emerging young
tight end and an elite prospect in Marvin Harrison Jr. Barring
injury, Wilson will not pass those guys in the pecking order,
but the volume in the passing game means Wilson could hit a 18-20%
target share and 100+ targets fairly easily. This Cardinals defense
is not good and with most of their games in optimal conditions
(domes/good weather) I see the potential for shootouts this season.
If McBride or Harrison Jr. were to miss any time, the ceiling
for Wilson would of course rise. While I do not think Wilson has
a top 15 receiver in his range of outcomes, I think a solid low-end
WR3-type season is on the horizon, and considering the value you
get (currently WR68), he’s too good to pass up.
Conklin is an average NFL tight end in terms of talent and production
but has a perfect situation for fantasy upside. He has averaged
60 catches and nearly 600 yards each of the past three seasons
which is decent, but nothing spectacular. Unfortunately, he only
has 6 total touchdowns in that time, with a big fat zero last
season, which is a big part of why he is being taken so late in
drafts.
Conklin has some appeal this year because the Jets offense could
actually be very good and there are no options outside of Garrett
Wilson and Breece Hall that I trust. A healthy and motivated Aaron
Rodgers is back, and he has a history of finding tight ends, especially
in the redzone. The offensive line is revamped and improved and
both Wilson and Hall should draw the bulk of defensive attention.
This leaves about 55% of the target share to Mike Williams (yet
to practice in team drills), rookie Malachi Corley, whose game
may not be a fit for an NFL offense, and veteran Allen Lazard,
who may not be on the team at all if not for his friendship with
Rodgers.
This is a perfect scenario for Conklin who should find himself
in a lot of favorable matchups in crucial situations near the
goal line. Double-digit touchdowns are a very real possibility
for a guy currently being drafted as the TE25. While I do not
expect a huge jump in targets and catches from last season, I
think a small jump plus an increase in efficiency and more redzone
opportunities could be enough to jump Conklin into the top 12-15
players at the position.
The Denver backfield has been a hotbed of speculation this Summer,
as four running backs are in competition for touches. Javonte
Williams has not lived up to expectations and while has been a
fantasy darling in some circles, he was rumored to be a cut/trade
candidate this offseason after a disappointing 2023 and not being
the current regime’s draft pick. Those rumors have been
put to bed and Williams is expected to be the starter, although
some doubts remain how good he is after being, by many measurables,
the team’s worst back in 2023.
Samaje Perine is set to embark on his age-29 season and is clearly
just a receiving back and not much better than replacement level
at this point. There were also rumors of Perine being cut this
Summer and he would likely be the first to go if one of the four
do not make the team.
Audric Estime is the Broncos’ 5th round draft pick and
while he should stick on the team, is likely to be eased into
the mix and is not much more than a two-down grinder based on
his profile.
This brings us to my favorite value of the group, Jaleel McLaughlin,
a 2023 undrafted free agent who brought electricity to the backfield
last year with a 5.4 yards per rushing attempt while catching
31 balls out of the backfield. Besides his great speed, burst,
hands, and vision, the reason I’m most excited about McLaughlin
is his fit in this offense. Sean Payton loves to throw to his
backs and now the Broncos have a quarterback in Bo Nix whose specialty
is the short-passing game.
This team may be playing from behind a lot this year and while
the defense is sitting back, I think McLaughlin will be the main
recipient of of 3rd and 4th quarter dump-offs and check downs.
With his run-after-catch ability and explosive burst/speed the
yardage should pile up quickly and I would not be surprised if
McLaughlin approached 1200-plus total yards this year with a handful
of touchdowns and 70+ catches. If Javonte does not bounce back
from his 2023 letdown and/or gets hurt, McLaughlin could even
do more damage and get a few extra carries per game too.
While McLaughlin will never be a true workhorse back like a Breece
Hall, he has the skills, and more importantly, the situation,
to maximize his talent and provide exceptional value where he
is currently being drafted.
Reaching extra deep here, I had Baker as my No.9 rookie receiver
pre-NFL draft in an absolutely loaded class. Hr ended up falling
to the 4th round, based partly on off-field concerns, and was
the second rookie wide receiver the Patriots took, after drafting
Ja’Lynn Polk in the 2nd round.
From a talent perspective, Baker is NFL-ready with a nice size/strength
combo, a willingness to go over the middle, and the ability to
“Moss” defenders when given the opportunity. Baker
was once a four-star recruit who played at Alabama but broke out
after transferring to UCF where he boasted an impressive 21.9
yards per reception his senior year.
Baker is a confident player and has reportedly had an excellent,
early training camp, with plenty of highlight reel catches. From
an opportunity perspective, there is good news and bad news. The
bad news is the Patriots’ quarterback situation is undetermined,
as 1st round rookie Drake Maye is likely a bit raw to be consistent
in his first season, so it is likely veteran Jacoby Brissett will
be under center for at least a few games.
On the positive side, this receiving corps is potentially the
worst group in the NFL, or at least bottom-five for sure. The
official depth chart ahead of Baker should be easy to climb with
veteran Kendrick Bourne (ACL), fellow aforementioned rookie Polk,
and 2nd year Demario Douglas all providing competition. I like
Baker’s talent over Polk, and while I like Douglas as a
player, he is smaller and more of a niche player than a potential
alpha.
While I do not expect big things from Baker right out of the
gate, I think he has a chance to shine once he gets consistent
snaps, likely later in the season. He is the only player on the
team that could break out as a potential star if things fall into
place. At this point in the draft (17th round), or on your league’s
waiver wire, there is nothing left but handcuffs and lottery tickets
and I think Baker stands out among the crowd as someone worth
rolling the dice on.
