He’s not the sexiest name on the board, but Philip Rivers
quietly had another excellent fantasy season in 2015, throwing for
nearly 4,800 yards along with 29 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions.
It was his eighth straight season of throwing for at least 26 touchdowns
and while the Chargers continue to flounder in mediocrity as a team,
their leader behind center continues to put up numbers that should
one day give him a chance at enshrinement in Canton.
There doesn’t seem to be any reason why San Diego would change their
offensive gameplan, but don’t look for Rivers to match his pass
attempts from a season ago. Last season was the first time in his
career that Rivers attempted 600 pass attempts and he blew by that
number with ease (661). Even with a downtick in attempts, Rivers
projects to be among the league leaders in the category as long
as he stays healthy, especially if Melvin Gordon struggles in the
running game, which could lead to more playing time for Danny Woodhead
whose skill set is much more in line with a pass-first offensive
attack. Rivers has averaged 4519 yards and 30 TDs over the last
three years with a QB Consistency ranking of QB8 during that time.
Early drafts see Rivers going off the board as a low-end QB1 in
some deep leagues, but typically as a high-end QB2. Rivers’ upside
is a bit limited with him being one of the least-mobile quarterbacks
in football, but he is an ideal streaming option in good matchups
whose high floor makes him a safe late-round pick.
2015 rookie running back Melvin Gordon was among the most disappointing
fantasy picks this past season as he failed to produce high-end
numbers even in great matchups. A first round NFL draft pick, most
believed that Gordon would immediately step into a solid San Diego
offense and drastically improve the team’s dismal per-attempt
numbers from 2014 where they averaged just 3.4 yards per carry as
a team. While the team’s YPC did improve, Gordon and the team
averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season. Most disappointing,
however, was that the team scored just four rushing touchdowns on
the entire season – none of which came from Gordon. Gordon’s
184 rushing attempts without a touchdown puts him on pace to compete
for the highest number of attempts in the history of the league
without hitting paydirt. Of course, one has to assume that Gordon
will eventually fluke his way into a touchdown even if his skills
haven’t improved from a season ago, but the second-year back
seems focused on boosting his production this season after a rookie
year which even he has described as “terrible” in interviews.
After an offseason spent recovering from a knee injury which ended
his season back in Week 15, Gordon will have to re-convince fantasy
owners that he is worth consideration as a potential high-end fantasy
back. Even though he was terrible, the Chargers stayed committed
to Gordon for the most part, giving him an average of 16 touches
per game. In today’s NFL, that’s hard to come by. It’ll
be difficult to forget his horrendous rookie season, but Gordon
could offer tremendous value for fantasy owners who opt to take
a chance on him. The skills are there, the opportunity is there.
He just needs to put it all together.
If you were naming off the top 12 fantasy running backs in the NFL
from 2015, chances are that you would stop for a moment after reading
Danny Woodhead’s name. Did he really finish 12th at the position
in Non-PPR leagues? He did. Very, very quietly. Perhaps more surprisingly
is that it’s nothing new for Woodhead to be ranked high in
fantasy production at the position. With the exception being a 2014
season which was ended early by injury, Woodhead has been a top-25
fantasy running back in three out of the past four seasons. But
even with that kind of a track record, Woodhead not only fails to
get the praise he should, but he is often completely forgotten about
on fantasy draft day.
2015 was perhaps the time when Woodhead was most disrespected by
the fantasy industry, primarily because of the addition of his teammate,
Melvin Gordon. Woodhead didn’t get nearly the amount of carries
that Gordon did, but his production in the passing game simply cannot
be overlooked. He finished the season as the only running back in
the league to be targeted more than 100 times (107) and his 81 receptions
and 756 receiving yards led all players at the position.
While Gordon is being drafted ahead of Woodhead once again in standard
fantasy leagues, don’t be surprised if Woodhead once again
sneaks onto the field more often than Gordon owners would like to
see, especially on passing downs. The high number of receptions
that Woodhead can produce gives him a nice floor most weeks, but
his lack of touchdowns doesn’t often allow him to be one of
the high-end scorers very often. Woodhead is one of the players
who is most affected by scoring systems, so be aware of how your
league scores receptions before your draft and then make your decision
on Woodhead accordingly.
One of the most forgotten stories of the 2015 season was the dominant
start of wide receiver Keenan Allen. Through eight games, Allen
was lighting up the fantasy scoreboard with 725 yards and four touchdowns
on 67 receptions with an incredible 75.3 percent catch rate. These
numbers put him on pace to finish with 134 receptions, 1,450 yards
and eight scores. That would’ve put him in the top three in
the league in both receptions and yards along with a respectable
touchdown number, making him a surefire top 10 fantasy receiver
for the season. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Allen’s
season was cut short by a freak injury – a lacerated kidney.
With half of a season and an entire offseason to recover, Allen
is expected to be fully healthy by Week 1, which should allow him
to get back to producing WR1 numbers, especially in PPR formats.
Certainly it would be difficult to imagine Allen producing quite
what he did in 2015 on a per-game basis, but quarterback Philip
Rivers seems to be very comfortable throwing him the ball in any
situation. This gives Allen a nice, high floor. Unfortunately, Allen
hasn’t shown that he has the ability to score at the pace
of a top-tier WR1. Because of that, he’ll be drafted as a
low-end WR1 in standard formats and just a mid-level WR1 in PPR
formats.
With the addition of Travis Benjamin, one of the best players in
the league at stretching a defense, the Chargers should have more
opportunities to throw the ball underneath and complete more of
the efficient, short-to-mid-range throws that are right in Allen’s
wheelhouse. If he can stay healthy – which he hasn’t been able to
do often in his career – Allen should be a consistent source of
fantasy production for those who give him another chance.
It would’ve been almost laughable to project Travis Benjamin
as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver heading into the 2015 season,
but by the halfway point in the year, it would’ve been even
more laughable to leave him off the list. As it turned out, Benjamin
blew away all expectations as he led the Browns wide receivers with
68 receptions for 966 yards and five touchdowns – nearly doubling
the next closest Cleveland wideout, Brian Hartline, who finished
with just 523 yards on the season. Benjamin’s breakout season
came in a contract year allowing him to capitalize on his latest
accomplishments. The fourth-year wideout eventually decided to sign
with San Diego, a team that threw the ball as much as anyone in
2015. Benjamin is expected to start opposite Keenan Allen, taking
over where Malcom Floyd left off when he retired this past off-season.
Floyd was one of the best deep threats in the league over the course
of his career and while Benjamin doesn’t have the same type
of physical height and weight measurables, he is a burner capable
of making huge plays down the field. Benjamin’s surprising
outburst in production in 2015 was primarily due to his big play
ability. Only three wide receivers – Antonio Brown, Odell
Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins – had more receptions of 40
or more yards than Benjamin.
While his production did tank in the final five games, suggesting
that his numbers may have been a bit more of a fluke than an actual
representation of his skill set, there is still plenty to like now
that he is in San Diego. Cleveland’s quarterback situation
was about as bad as they come and a veteran passer like Rivers should
lead to more consistent fantasy numbers from this young wideout,
even if his overall numbers don’t increase much.
WR Steve
Johnson (2015 WR Rank – No. 67, 7.5 FPts/G)
Once considered one of the most promising up and coming talents
at the position, Stevie Johnson has now been relegated to an afterthought
in most fantasy drafts. Following a disappointing first season in
San Diego, Johnson’s numbers have now fallen below 600 yards
in three straight seasons, for three different teams. Johnson will
get another chance to play in this high-powered San Diego passing
game, but the high-end upside he once showed seems to be a thing
of the past, especially given his recent injury history which has
kept him off the field or fighting through nagging injuries in each
of the past three seasons.
While Johnson’s career body of work is certainly more reliable
than that of newcomer Travis Benjamin, it’s Benjamin whose
skill set is more in line with being an outside receiver, thus meaning
that Johnson is likely to play most of his snaps out of the slot
again. The slot receiver position in San Diego has produced some
nice fantasy numbers over the years and with Rivers likely to push
600 pass attempts again, there should be plenty of opportunities
for Johnson to put up some decent fantasy numbers this season. Unfortunately,
his production could be quite streaky, just as it was a season ago
when he failed to catch more than five receptions in five straight
games before catching seven passes in three straight contests. Those
three games, of course, came right before his season-ending injury
in Week 13.
Johnson is going to go undrafted in many leagues, but given the
injury history of Keenan Allen, he is someone to keep an eye on
throughout the season. Don’t be afraid to roll the dice on
him when he starts to get hot. It’ll probably happen at some
point this season.
The only other San Diego wide receiver who should give fantasy owners
any interest heading into the season is third-year wideout Dontrelle
Inman. Inman hasn’t been spectacular throughout his short
career, but he did finish the 2015 season with a few decent games,
including an eight-reception, 82-yard game with a touchdown against
the Raiders in Week 15. This is mostly noteworthy because it came
in a game where the Chargers were without both Keenan Allen and
Stevie Johnson.
Inman became the default WR1 option late in the season and that
could potentially happen again if the team gets bit by the injury
bug as they have been in recent seasons. Still, even if he does
see the field as the team’s WR1 at some point, Inman hasn’t
shown the skills to be a highly efficient fantasy option. The production
could come in certain games, but it’s unlikely to be with
much consistency.
TE Antonio
Gates (2015 TE Rank – No. 11, 8.5 FPts/G)
Ever since he joined the team back in 2003, Antonio Gates has been
one of the most productive fantasy tight ends in all of football.
In fact, Gates was one of the first players at the position who
started to give credence to the idea that a tight end could be a
first round fantasy selection. Of course, those days are long in
the past for Gates, but at age 36, he is still very much an option
for fantasy owners. Gates missed the first four games of the 2015
season due to a drug suspension, but still finished as the No. 11
fantasy tight end on the season as he caught 56 passes for 630 yards
and five touchdowns. His 8.5 fantasy points-per-game were good enough
for seventh at the position.
Tight end is very top-heavy this season, but even in his old age,
Gates presents substantially less downside than most of the other
tight ends being selected around him. He’s barely being drafted
as a starter in most leagues and could even be selected as a backup
in some formats. At that price tag, it’d be hard to miss with
Gates. Even if the wheels finally do come off, it shouldn’t
cost fantasy owners much with him being selected so late in drafts.
