It doesn’t get much better than the incredible run Josh
Allen is on in fantasy football. Over the past three seasons,
Allen has finished as the QB2, QB1, and QB1 in total points, solidifying
the 27-year-old as an elite option at the position and someone
who can provide difference-making value even in the early rounds.
While he failed to finish as the QB1 this past year, it’s
worth considering that he still managed to score 472.4 fantasy
points, which would have made him the QB1 (aside from himself)
in 2019, 2020, and 2021. It’s just that Patrick Mahomes’
absurd 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns narrowly earned him the edge
over Allen for one season.
Not only is Allen already one of the best players in the game,
but the Bills appear intent on helping him get even better, as
they spent their first-round NFL Draft pick on tight end Dalton
Kincaid, who they took at No. 25 overall. There are some grumblings
about star wide receiver Stefon Diggs being frustrated and there
is a world where he’s actually moved this offseason, but Allen
provides a high-end rushing ability floor with elite arm strength,
which makes him one of the safest players in all of fantasy football.
In fact, with a whopping 38, Allen already has the fourth-most
rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in NFL history, despite
having only played five seasons. He’s also gone over 750 rushing
yards in back-to-back seasons.
It’s true that Allen still turns the ball over too often
through the air, which was really the main thing that kept him
from being the QB1 in 2022 for what would have been the third
straight fantasy season. Still, despite some cringe-worthy picks
from time to time, Allen is absolutely worthy of being one of
the quarterbacks who managers actually prioritize in the early
rounds. In fact, it’s completely reasonable to select him
above Mahomes given the fact that he’s out-scored the Kansas
City quarterback by a total of 56.2 points over the past three
fantasy seasons combined.
James Cook was one of the fantasy football community’s
favorite late-round “sleepers,” but as it turned out,
fantasy managers were left snoring at his weekly box totals. A
disappointing rookie season despite bad competition that included
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss means that Cook didn’t do
enough to really stand out to the coaching staff and guarantee
himself a role here in 2023.
The lack of performance wasn’t necessarily due to a lack
of efficiency, as the rookie running back averaged the second-highest
yards-per-carry of any rookie running back, with only Breece Hall
being slightly higher. He fumbled the ball just once (on his very
first NFL carry) on the season and caught 21 passes for 180 yards
and a touchdown. The problem seemed to primarily be opportunity
driven as he saw double-digit carries just five times, including
the playoffs, and none of them came in back-to-back weeks, making
him an extraordinarily difficult player to start in fantasy.
Buffalo got rid of Zack Moss during the 2022 season and Devin
Singletary moved on, which means that Cook should get the first
opportunity to start for the Bills here in 2023. The team did
at veterans Damien Harris and Latavius
Murray, but neither of those players seems likely to shoulder
a truly difference-making workload. Unfortunately, being the “starting
running back” for the Bills hasn’t exactly translated into a ton
of fantasy production. For example, Singletary has started 16
games for the Bills in each of the past three seasons, but he
never saw more than 188 carries and never exceeded 40 receptions
in any season. Most importantly, he scored just 16 total touchdowns
over those years as the Bills’ starter. Much of that lack of fantasy
success is due to the fact that the Bills are perfectly content
with letting the offense go through Josh Allen, particularly in
the red zone. Allen actually scored 21 rushing touchdowns over
the past three seasons, which certainly hurt the Bills running
backs who have managed to score just 28 rushing touchdowns between
all of them combined over the same span.
The Bills are almost certain to remain one of the league’s
most pass-happy teams, which can mean a lot of scoring, but it
can also lead to some frustrating weeks for fantasy managers who
start their running backs. Cook is currently being drafted outside
the top 30 at the running back position, so his cost isn’t
likely to be a killer for fantasy teams. Still, he’s someone
whose upside is probably limited unless Josh Allen has an injury
that somehow allows him to continue to pass the ball at a high
level but doesn’t allow him to be quite as mobile as he
normally is.
While James Cook is currently projected to be the starter in
Buffalo, the Bills did bring in two other between-the-tackles
grinders to help shoulder the workload, one being Damien Harris
and the other being Latavius Murray. After spending the past couple
of seasons as the “1B” in New England, Harris is currently
being projected to be the second option in this backfield and
he could find himself getting some goal-line work this season
in one of the league’s best offenses.
What’s interesting is that, while Harris is seven years
younger than Murray, there’s a real case to be made that
Murray was actually the better back between the two this past
season, as he actually looked decent in Denver. In fact, he had
two games with over 100 rushing yards in the final four weeks
of the regular season.
This isn’t a backfield that fantasy managers will want
to invest in, but there’s a chance that only one of Harris
or Murray makes the roster, in which case that player probably
has some value as a handcuff to Cook if nothing else. The Bills
are one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, but even
a mediocre talent like Devin Singletary was able to see double-digit
carries in nine games during the 2022 regular season, so there’s
some potential here for fantasy value. Truthfully, though, if
both Harris and Murray make the 53-man roster and are active on
Sundays then there’s a decent likelihood that neither of
them ends up being worth much, as they’ll both likely see
too little work to be worthwhile for fantasy.
Stefon Diggs’ bizarre ongoing issues (or non-issues?) with
the Bills have been one of the most talked-about situations in
the NFL over the past month or so. The star wide receiver has
reportedly been frustrated about his role in the Buffalo offense,
which seems odd, considering he’s developed into one of
the league’s most productive wide receivers over the past
three seasons since arriving in Buffalo. Things seem to have cooled
down recently, however, which should give fantasy managers some
confidence that the 29-year-old will be returning to continue
his dominance with superstar quarterback Josh Allen.
From a skills and situation standpoint, there’s really
not much to be concerned about for Diggs. The real worry is that
he’ll be turning 30 years old in November, which is a scary
age for wide receivers as we’ve historically seen a lot
of top-level pass-catchers drop off once they hit this milestone.
Of course, it’s not as though there’s just a sudden
drop-off and the player becomes unusable, but it’s something
we’ll need to be at least aware of, and potentially be willing
to address early in the year if Diggs is starting to not quite
look like himself.
Nevertheless, the Bills really didn’t do much to address
the pass-catching competition in their offense, so it seems likely
that Diggs should remain one of the league’s most highly-targeted
weapons again in 2023. The only real significant addition that
the team made was with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie
tight ends don’t often do much in their first season. The
other players in the offense have been around Buffalo and just
don’t offer a compelling enough reason for Allen to start
targeting them over Diggs, so feel free to draft this stud wide
receiver early and often yet again this season.
The 2021 playoff breakout from Gabe Davis had some fantasy managers
making absolutely wild projections heading into this past season.
Davis had never reached even 600 yards receiving in a regular
season throughout his first two years, but that magical 2021 playoff
run which saw him catch five touchdowns in two games, had people
relying on him to be their WR3 or even WR2 for fantasy in 2022.
The season started off hot, with Davis scoring a touchdown in
Week 1, before scoring three more times prior to Week 6. But then
things came crashing down, with the big play wideout failing to
reach 100 yards in any game and scoring just three total touchdowns
in his final 10 regular season contests. In short, he was essentially
unusable for fantasy purposes following his short run of fantasy
excellence.
Now heading into his fourth season, Davis again has some fantasy
managers salivating at the idea of a breakout. In fairness to
them, he did have his best season yet, producing career highs
in receptions (48) and yards (836) while tying a career-high with
seven touchdowns. The Bills didn’t really add any significant
threats to his role and team management has reiterated its belief
in Davis throughout the offseason. Still, his streaky nature makes
him an extraordinarily difficult player to project on a weekly
basis, so be prepared to be frustrated if you’re relying
on him.
The big positive here is that Davis is still offering essentially
the exact same upside in 2023 that he did in 2022, just at a significantly
reduced cost. He’s going two, three, or even four rounds
later (depending on your service) than he was a season ago and
he should still have a significant role in the Buffalo offense.
Whether that pans out to be a more consistent fantasy option remains
to be seen, but the price tag makes him a lot more palatable this
year than he was in 2022.
The Bills’ slot receiver role has delivered some nice fantasy
production in recent years, with Cole Beasley even turning in
a Pro Bowl season back in 2020. Beasley was significantly less
productive in 2021, which led to the team moving on from him this
past season and instead giving the job to Isaiah McKenzie. McKenzie
wasn’t particularly great, catching 42 passes for 423 yards
and four touchdowns and his lack of performance resulted in the
Bills actually bringing Beasley back to the roster toward the
end of the year.
Now with both Beasley and McKenzie gone, all signs seem to point
toward second-year receiver Khalil Shakir getting the first crack
at manning the slot for the Bills. Shakir played half of his snaps
out of the slot as a rookie and while he didn’t do much on the
stat sheet, his 4.43 speed along with his 6’0, 190 lb frame makes
him an interesting weapon at the position who could also move
to the outside in some situations. Unfortunately, he does have
some competition from the likes of veteran free agent signings
Deonte Harty
and Trent
Sherfield, as well as tight ends Dawson
Knox and Dalton
Kincaid.
It’s unlikely that Buffalo has another 2020 Beasley-like
season from their slot receiver, but if there’s one player
who could potentially break out and become fantasy relevant in
that position on the Bills roster, it’s probably Shakir.
He’s a late-round dart throw in deep leagues, but one who
could break out early in the year and make a splash, or simply
fall flat on his face and be an easy cut for fantasy managers.
Fantasy managers have been patiently waiting on a breakout season
from Dawson Knox, but aside from his impressive nine-touchdown
performance in 2021, we just haven’t seen enough from him
to make him a weekly must-start even at a weak tight end position.
Not only have fantasy managers mostly moved on from him, but the
Bills also made it clear that they’re looking for more from
the position when they drafted another tight end, Dalton
Kincaid, in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft.
The Bills plan to use both players, which will likely result
in a fantasy dud of a situation, but we’ve seen situations
like this happen plenty of times throughout the years and it’s
almost always true that the rookie tight end takes a back seat
in his first season while the somewhat-productive veteran sees
most of the work in an offense.
The long-term play is probably Kincaid, but for this season,
if you absolutely have to bet on a Bills tight end, Knox is still
the better bet. He’s been disappointing, but he’s
still managed to score 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons,
which is slightly more than one score for every two games he’s
played. The tight end position is bad enough throughout the league
that we’re mostly hoping for 50 yards and touchdowns out
of the vast majority of starters, so Knox is capable of delivering
that from time to time. Still, he should see enough competition
from Kincaid that it’ll be tough to justify drafting him,
let alone starting him on a weekly basis.
