At this point, Washington is a perennial “not-quite-good-enough
to be contender / not-quite-bad-enough to have a high draft pick”
franchise, and that, along with some ancillary personnel decisions,
has really hurt the team’s ability to land a true difference-making
quarterback. The Commanders’ 2022 quarterback situation
was all over the place, with three different quarterbacks starting
games, two of whom are no longer with the franchise after the
team moved on from Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke.
Now heading into his second professional season, Sam Howell appears
most likely to be the Commanders’ Week 1 starter despite
having only started one game as a rookie in 2022. Howell threw
for 169 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in that start,
a Week 18 victory over the Cowboys who were headed to the playoffs.
Notably, Howell also added 35 yards on the ground, which is certainly
in line with how he played during his final season at North Carolina
prior to being drafted, in which he rushed for 828 yards and 11
touchdowns. That season, however, was a far stretch from what
we saw from him as the Tar Heels’ starter in both his freshman
and sophomore seasons, which saw him rush for a total of just
181 yards and six scores in those two seasons combined.
Howell should be in line to start this season, but head coach
Ron Rivera has seemingly taken steps back in declaring Howell
as the official starter despite the fact that he is operating
as the team’s QB1 thus far. Rivera has stated that it is
an open competition and that he would be comfortable if veteran
Jacoby Brissett came out on top. We’ve seen this situation
play out many times throughout recent history and teams almost
always end up going with the younger, higher upside option as
long as it’s not a complete landslide victory in the veteran’s
favor, but fantasy managers should beware that the Commanders
have shown a propensity to move on from their quarterbacks—even
young ones— if they’re not performing at a satisfactory
level. That could mean a shorter-than-expected leash for Howell
if things don’t go well out of the gate.
On a positive note, Howell does step into an offense that is
better than many casual fans believe, with some truly impressive
pass-catchers at just about every level. His under-the-radar rushing
upside makes him an interesting late-round dart throw in two-QB
and SuperFlex leagues. He’s unlikely to deliver high-end fantasy
production, but a campaign like Daniel Jones’ 2022 season is not
out of the question.
The Commanders’ three-headed backfield situation in 2022
was an absolute nightmare for fantasy, but things got a lot more
interesting when the team moved on from pass-catching specialist
J.D. McKissic this offseason. While the Commanders did draft Chris
Rodriguez in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, they have
not otherwise addressed the position throughout the offseason
and it seems likely that the duo of Gibson and Brian Robinson
Jr. will split touches in this backfield.
While it was Robinson who out-scored Gibson on a per-game basis
in 2022, it’s Gibson who possesses the skill set that is
more likely to benefit from McKissic’s absence. Gibson himself
has caught 36, 42, and then 46 passes in his three seasons as
a pro. His reception total in 2022 put him at 13th among all running
backs—a ranking that would’ve almost certainly been
higher had he not missed the final two games of the season.
Gibson is a size-speed specimen like few others in the league
which really gives him the potential for a breakout season here
in 2023. The biggest thing holding back Gibson is that Robinson
did show himself to be at least a viable NFL grinder as a rookie,
which will almost certainly mean that he’ll continue to
have a significant role even if Gibson is performing better on
a per-touch basis. Nevertheless, from a strict fantasy standpoint,
we should tend to prefer players who have the physical upside
of commanding 40 percent or more of the team’s carries while
also seeing 70-plus targets. That’s what Gibson provides
and it’s why fantasy managers should take the discount on
him as the Washington running back to own, even if he ends up
technically starting fewer games than Robinson.
The Brian Robinson comeback story was one of the bright spots
of the entire 2022 NFL season. The former Alabama running back
was shot during a car-jacking prior to the start of his rookie
season, but he was somehow able to get onto the field in Week
5. By Week 6 he was listed as the team’s starter and he
would go on to see at least 12 carries in all but one of his final
11 games, including five games in which he carried the ball 20
or more times. His 3.9 yards per carry average was admittedly
ugly, but the confidence that his coaches showed in him was undeniable.
It’s easy to see why Robinson is being prioritized by fantasy
drafters when you simply take a look at his carry totals and the
fact that he “started” almost every game for the team
once he saw the field in 2022. But a deeper dive into the pass-catching
situation in Washington will show you that his upside remains
capped as long as he remains almost exclusively an early-down
back. Robinson caught just nine passes on the year, a total that
is almost unprecedently bad in today’s NFL. Even notable
non-pass-catchers like Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb are typically
catching double that total over the course of a full season. While
Robinson’s numbers likely would’ve gone up a bit had
he played every game, it’s tough to deny that as of right
now he might be the league’s most one-dimensional running
back, at least from a usage standpoint.
J.D. McKissic’s removal from the backfield will have an
effect on how things play out in this Washington, but all indications
seem to point toward the pass-catching role expanding for Gibson
while Robinson remains the early-down back. The early-down role
was good enough to make Robinson a decent fantasy option during
the weeks when he got into the end zone, but things got ugly when
he didn’t. Robinson scored 12 or fewer PPR fantasy points
in nine of his 12 games played. Unless he sees an increase in
goal-line touches that he converts into touchdowns, or he becomes
significantly more involved in the passing game, look for Robinson
to remain a frustrating fantasy asset in 2023.
It’s been four seasons of the Commanders trotting out who’s-who
of garbage quarterbacks, yet Terry McLaurin has managed to average
over 1,000 receiving yards per season. His 21 touchdowns are a
disappointing total, but that’s to be expected when he’s been
practically the only viable downfield threat for the team prior
to them drafting Jahan Dotson this past season. Despite a carousel
behind center for yet another year, McLaurin managed to set career
highs in receiving yards and air yards while tying a career low
with just three drops in 2022. What’s perhaps most impressive
is that McLaurin had some of his best games when being matched
up against some of the league’s best cornerbacks, including Stephon
Gilmore, Darius Slay, and Jaire Alexander.
It would be great if we could somehow tell the story that Washington’s
quarterback situation looks like it’s in for a significant
improvement, but that’s just not likely to happen with Sam
Howell behind center. Howell does, however, add a bit of mobility
and might be able to breathe some life into this offense as a
whole. Additionally, a glance at his college highlight reel indicates
that he throws a fairly accurate deep ball which could benefit
McLaurin in particular.
Another fantasy season in the WR2 range looks like the most likely
outcome for McLaurin, so don’t expect some huge breakout
season for the fifth-year wideout, but he’s a safe player
who should provide relatively consistent numbers even with mediocre
quarterback play.
Touchdown totals are oftentimes fluky, but it’s hard not
to look at 2022 rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson’s seven
touchdowns in 12 games and dream about what a healthy full-season
total might look like. Dotson somehow managed to catch a touchdown
on one out of every five receptions—a percentage that will
almost certainly be unsustainable going forward—but one
that makes him an intriguing compliment to teammate Terry McLaurin.
While McLaurin has been a perennial 1000-yard receiver as a pro,
he is yet to score more than seven touchdowns in any of his four
professional seasons. He’s a downfield playmaker with impressive
hands, but his usage in the red zone simply hasn’t been
great even when you account for the bad quarterback play he’s
had to deal with. Dotson, however, caught 12 touchdowns as a senior
at Penn State, on a team that threw for just 25 total touchdowns
on the year. Then as an NFL rookie, he managed to score seven
touchdowns in just 12 games, on a team that threw for just 24
total touchdowns. Needless to say, he’s proven himself to
be red zone weapon both at the collegiate and professional level,
so the upside is there for him to become a double-digit touchdown
scorer if he has decent quarterback play.
Unfortunately, he’s dealing with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett,
so the true breakout year for Dotson isn’t likely to happen
here in 2023, but his price also doesn’t necessitate a breakout
to pay dividends. If he can simply stay healthy and score at even
half of the rate he did in 2022, Dotson will be a value in the
middle rounds in fantasy drafts, particularly in best ball formats
where you don’t have to try to guess the weeks that he gets
into the end zone.
Curtis Samuel made his move to Washington prior to the 2021 season,
but he spent most of that season battling injuries and we really
didn’t get to see much of him. It was bad enough that many
had completely written him off as even a usable fantasy asset
heading into the 2022 season, particularly after the Commanders
used a mid-first-round draft pick on Jahan Dotson. Dotson himself
suffered an early-season injury as a rookie, which ended up allowing
Samuel to remain relevant throughout the first half of the season.
In fact, through the team’s first five weeks, he had actually
out-scored both Dotson and Terry McLaurin and was looking like
the potential steal of the fantasy season. Unfortunately, the
ride didn’t last much longer than that and Samuel eventually
slid back into fantasy irrelevancy in the second half of the season,
much of which corresponded with Dotson’s return to the field.
Samuel’s chances of ever being a true difference-maker
in fantasy are very low at this point, especially when he’s
on a team with multiple pass-catchers who are simply better at
making big plays. However, he plays the slot in an offense that
always manages to perform better than their personnel seems like
it should. He’s an impressive runner with the ball in his
hands which is why both the Panthers and Commanders have opted
to give him carries out of the backfield in most games. He doesn’t
often see more than five carries in any one game, but he’s
scored six rushing touchdowns on just 114 carries while averaging
nearly six yards per carry throughout his career, so even a few
carries here and there can sometimes result in a nice bonus for
fantasy managers.
One thing that’s flying a bit under the radar in Washington
is that while Antonio Gibson is the most likely player to see
an increased pass-catching role out of the backfield after J.D.
McKissic’s departure, there’s a non-zero chance that
Samuel ends up eating into that. Samuel actually played running
back in college at Ohio State and while his skill set didn’t
project for him to play that position in the NFL, his transition
to wide receiver as a pro has resulted in him being a player who
catches passes closer to the line of scrimmage than most. This
allows him to get the ball and then make smaller players in the
secondary miss on tackles. Again, Samuel taking over the McKissic
role is not the most likely outcome, but it’s one that we
should be aware of during draft season because Samuel is being
drafted very late and he possesses some interesting upside if
he ends up being a bigger focal point in the Washington offense
here in 2023.
TE Logan Thomas
(2022 TE Rank – No.39, 2.9 FPts/G)
Injuries have derailed Logan Thomas’ career in recent seasons
and the tight end appeared to be on his last legs in 2022. Thomas
saw his yards per reception, receptions per game, catch percentage,
and yards after catch per reception all take a dive. That led
to a pretty ugly fantasy finish overall—one in which he
scored just one touchdown in 14 games played.
That type of performance from a veteran typically leads to an
NFL team prioritizing the position in the draft, but the Commanders
completely avoided drafting a tight end and they will seemingly
roll into the 2023 season with no one of note behind Thomas on
the depth chart. Of course, that was the situation last year when
Thomas was unable to even be a TE2 for fantasy, so there’s
not much to be excited about here.
Like many others beyond the top eight or so at the position,
Thomas is essentially a touchdown-or-bust player on a weekly basis.
Unfortunately for him, he plays on a team where he’s likely
the fourth or even fifth option on most passing plays. Worse yet,
his team doesn’t possess the realistic potential of ascending
into a truly elite offense. That means he’s someone who
fantasy managers should be avoiding here in 2023, at least to
start the season. If we watch the games and find that he’s
both healthy and much more involved than we initially believed,
then sure, we should be willing to pounce on him and add him from
waivers, but otherwise, the tight end position in Washington is
one to avoid in most fantasy leagues.
