Over his past four years, Josh Allen has finished as the fantasy
QB1 in 2023, QB2 in 2022, QB1 in 2021, QB1 in 2020. To say that
he’s on a “Mount Rushmore of all-time fantasy quarterbacks”
pace would be an understatement. There are plenty of quarterbacks
who can provide consistent, high-end passing numbers or who can
deliver the “Konami code” effect of practically cheating
due to how effective they are as runners, but practically no one
in the history of the game has done both of those things at the
same time for this many seasons in a row.
Allen might be a unicorn at the position, but it’s hard
to argue that his forecast for the 2024 season is looking a bit
murky. With both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving, Allen is
now left with a group of highly inexperienced pass-catching weapons,
most of whom lack the physical ability to be one-for-one replacements
for either Diggs or Davis, let alone both. Sure, Allen has shown
the ability to make due with inferior weapons when Diggs and Davis
have been banged up, but what happens when defenses know that
those players are gone and can instead allocate more resources
to preventing him from scrambling, particularly in the red zone?
Time will tell.
Despite these concerns, Allen should remain an elite fantasy
asset this season as the entire Buffalo offense has been built
around him. Look for him to remain one of the league’s most
aggressive passers while also being the Bills’ defacto goal-line
running back, giving him a great floor for fantasy production
while still providing high-end QB1 upside.
Despite finishing as the RB11 overall in fantasy in 2023, Cook
ranked as just RB19 on a points-per-game basis, highlighting the
reality that much of his final ranking had more to do with him
simply staying healthy than it did him delivering elite fantasy
production. Cook has been touted as a proficient pass-catching
back, but he ranked 17th at the running back position in receptions
with just 44 throughout the season. Cook did, however, manage
to join the elite club of running backs with over 1,000 rushing
yards, finishing fourth with 1,122 yards on the ground. Despite
this impressive feat, he only scored two rushing touchdowns, suggesting
potential positive regression in the upcoming season.
The addition of Ray Davis in the Bills' roster could impact Cook's
red zone usage, given Davis's notable collegiate success with
20 touchdowns in his final season. While Cook is expected to maintain
a solid floor, his scarcity in touchdowns may limit his spike
weeks. Nonetheless, with potential increased opportunities near
the goal line and sustained health, he remains a reliable mid-to-high-end
RB2 and could even remain a low-end RB1 in 2024 if he’s able to
stay healthy again.
James Cook enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, but that didn’t
stop the Bills from adding to their running back room by selecting
Ray Davis in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Cook supporters
should be thankful that Buffalo didn’t add one of the many
proven veterans who were available this offseason as had sometimes
been rumored, but Davis is still a player who could play significant
snaps for the Bills this season. Cook was by far Buffalo’s
most productive back in 2023, and was the only back who played
in every game for them, but he still only managed to be on the
field for just under 55 percent of the team’s snaps. This
indicated that while the Bills view Cook as their lead back, they’re
not willing to completely hand over the keys to make him their
version of Christian McCaffery.
If Davis is able to play even 35 percent of the snaps for the
Bills, there will almost certainly be weeks where produces usable
fantasy numbers. The problem is that, unless Cook is out, predicting
those games is going to be nearly impossible. Latavius Murray
was Buffalo’s main RB2 in 2023 and while he played over
30 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, he only saw double-digit
carries twice and only managed to score four total touchdowns,
making him a completely unusable fantasy asset.
Davis may show us something that allows him to earn more of a
50/50 split by the end of the season, but fantasy managers should
be expecting that he’ll take a while to give us anything
useful - if he ever gets there at all - as long as Cook is available.
The 2024 rookie class saw seven receivers selected in the first
round. The eighth receiver taken, as the first pick of the second
round, was Florida State’s Keon Coleman, who immediately
steps into a situation where he might actually end up leading
all rookies in pass-catching opportunities this season. The Coleman
selection was significant for fantasy purposes because he becomes
perhaps the top target in one of the league’s most pass-heavy
offenses, led by a quarterback who’s averaged nearly 4,400
passing yards and over 34 passing touchdowns per season over his
past four years.
What’s interesting about Coleman is that he lacks the speed
that most teams have typically been looking for in early-round
draft picks, but he makes up for it with prototypical “X”
receiver size at 6’3” and 213 lbs. He enters a team
that lost 241 targets with the departures of Stefon Diggs and
Gabe Davis, and a roster that really does not have any other consistent,
proven producers on it. He was also, reportedly, a favorite prospect
of Josh Allen’s, who was part of the draft process according
to GM Brandon Beane.
Coleman wasn’t a big-time producer in college, but he seems
to have the physical talent, and more importantly, the opportunity,
to be a fantasy factor as early as Week 1 in 2024. It’s
not often that we have the chance to draft the projected WR1 in
a Josh Allen offense with a pick outside the top 100, but that’s
looking like the trend as of now. He’s practically free
at that price and it’s hard to argue that many of the other
receivers going in that range possess anywhere near the upside
that Coleman presents.
A team featuring a target vacuum like Stefon Diggs typically
means that there is only one, or sometimes no other viable fantasy
pass-catchers in the offense. That was certainly the case in 2023
for the Bills when Diggs and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid left
the other pass-catchers scrounging for leftovers.
With Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving this offseason, Khalil Shakir
could see a significant uptick in playing time here in 2024. Both
Diggs and Davis played over 80 percent of the Bills’ offensive
snaps in 2023, with Shakir finishing third among receivers at
nearly a 52 percent snap share. He was the only other wide receiver
on the roster to play even 35 percent of the snaps, and he did
so playing primarily out of the slot. Interestingly enough, rather
than bring in a veteran outside receiver to complement their existing
roster with Shakir on it, the Bills instead opted to bring in
Curtis Samuel who also played most of his snaps out of the slot
for the Commanders this past season. Chase
Claypool has reportedly been making some splashes in training
camp, but he’s done practically nothing for multiple seasons in
a row, so we have to assume that Shakir or Samuel - or perhaps
both - will see their percentage of slot snaps go down this season
as they are asked to move outside more often. This might sound
like a good thing on the surface, but neither player has shown
success playing outside, so we really just have to hope that their
total snaps see a significant enough increase to make up for the
role changes they’re likely to experience.
Shakir did provide three games of 90 or more yards for the Bills
in 2023 and his yards per target number was incredible, so there’s
some potential for a breakout here. He’s not a bad late-round
dart throw if you’re looking to get a piece of this Buffalo
offense.
Newcomer to Buffalo, Curtis Samuel is expected to compete with
Khalil Shakir to be the team’s primary slot receiver here
in 2023 - a position in an offense that once saw Cole Beasley
ascend up the fantasy rankings and even make a Pro Bowl. Samuel
is a veteran who has spent his past three years in Washington,
including back-to-back 600-plus-yard, four-touchdown seasons on
a team that had serious QB problems. A seven-year pro, Samuel
has never reached 900 yards or exceeded six receiving touchdowns
in a season. Of course, he’s also never played with a quarterback
who’s anywhere near the caliber of Josh Allen.
Samuel has a history of delivering spike weeks and then completely
falling on his face thereafter, making him one of the most frustrating
players to manage in all of fantasy football. He does add some
dimension to his game as a runner on end-arounds and straight
even out of the backfield, but the Commanders chose to give him
just seven carries on the season in 2023 after 38 in 2022, indicating
that perhaps they saw a dip in his explosiveness. Nevertheless,
his rushing upside isn’t really something we can bank on
with a new team, especially when the team has an established runner
in James Cook and perhaps the league’s most effective red
zone rusher behind center with Josh Allen.
Samuel is an extremely cheap, perhaps even free option in fantasy
drafts this season, so he really brings no risk. We don’t
know what’s going to happen with this wide receiver group,
but we do expect that the Bills will be among the league leaders
in pass attempts this season, so keep an eye on Samuel’s
usage early in the year and be ready to pounce on the waiver wire
if he’s seeing significant playing time.
Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills showcased remarkable talent
in his rookie season, despite initially starting as the second
tight end on the team behind Dawson Knox. Despite this, he managed
to amass an impressive 91 targets, a feat uncommon for rookie
tight ends. Kincaid's emergence was notable, especially considering
the rarity of rookies breaking into the top 12 at their position.
However, his achievements were somewhat overshadowed by fellow
rookie Sam LaPorta, who claimed the TE1 spot overall in 2023.
Now entering his sophomore season, Kincaid has solidified his
position as the team's primary tight end, particularly with Buffalo's
offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Though
he may have to contend a bit with Knox for playing time, Kincaid's
prowess as a pass-catcher and overall playmaker positions him
as a vital asset on a team in need of dynamic receivers. With
the potential to ascend to fantasy superstardom, Kincaid offers
managers both a high floor and elite upside, making him a wise
investment despite a somewhat hefty draft price.
