QB Dak Prescott
(2023 QB Rank – No.3, 23.9 FPts/G)
Dak Prescott finished the 2023 season as the QB3 in fantasy football,
averaging 23.9 points per game. This impressive finish did, however,
happen during a season where overall quarterback performance was
down across the league, with only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts having
standout seasons. Despite his high ranking, it was actually Prescott's
fourth-highest-scoring season on a per-game basis when including
his five-game stint in 2020.
Prescott's success in 2023 was largely due to his efficiency
through the air, as he rushed for only 242 yards and two touchdowns.
He threw for 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions, a significant
improvement over his 2022 performance where he threw 23 touchdowns
and 15 interceptions. However, without a substantial rushing ceiling,
Prescott lacks the game-breaking potential of some other fantasy
quarterbacks. This has led to him being drafted behind players
like Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, and even Kyler Murray in
some leagues.
The offseason brought challenges for Prescott, including the
loss of left tackle Tyron Smith. Although the Cowboys addressed
this by drafting Tyler Guyton in the first round, there are concerns
about a potential dip in Prescott’s blind-side protection.
Additionally, Prescott is dealing with a foot injury that, while
reportedly not serious, has caused him to wear a walking boot.
Overall, Prescott is a safe, albeit not very exciting, low-end
QB1 for the 2024 season. He offers mid-QB1 upside if things go
his way, but his lack of rushing production and potential issues
with pass protection temper his ceiling. Fantasy managers can
rely on Prescott for consistent performance, but he may not provide
the game-breaking edge needed to dominate at the quarterback position.
Ezekiel Elliott returns to the Dallas Cowboys after a one-season
stint with the New England Patriots. Many expect him to immediately
reclaim the lead-back role in what continues to be a high-powered
Cowboys offense. In 2023, Elliott defied expectations by out-producing
teammate Rhamondre Stevenson, who many predicted would have a
breakout season due to the lack of depth behind him. Elliott's
edge over Stevenson was primarily due to his ability to stay healthy
while Stevenson missed several games. Notably, the backfield split
between Elliott and Stevenson was much more balanced than anticipated,
and Elliott caught 51 passes—a significant improvement from
the 17 receptions he managed in Dallas in 2022.
Now back with the Cowboys, Elliott is part of a substantially
better offense, which should enhance his fantasy value even though
he may no longer be the dynamic player he once was. Elliott's
situation in Dallas offers serious touchdown potential. Last season,
Tony Pollard was among the league leaders in red zone touches
but was surprisingly unproductive with his opportunities. Pollard
even had nine carries within close range of the end zone, an area
where Elliott has thrived throughout his eight-year NFL career.
The reality of the Cowboys' backfield situation is that it lacks
depth and talent. While Elliott is not at his peak, he is primarily
competing with the unproven Rico Dowdle. This context makes Elliott
an intriguing late-round pick who could serve as a valuable complement
for those drafting rookie running backs who may not have high
touch shares early in the season. Elliott's touches might reduce
as the season progresses, which could be an ideal time to pivot
to a young rookie running back on another team, such as Trey Benson
or Jonathon Brooks, who might be hitting their stride at that
time.
While Ezekiel Elliott may appear to be a shell of his former
self, his role in a high-powered Cowboys offense and his proven
red zone efficiency make him a viable late-round option in fantasy
football drafts. His potential for early-season production and
touchdown opportunities could provide a solid return on investment,
especially for those looking to complement their roster with a
veteran presence while waiting for younger backs to develop.
Throughout the offseason, it seemed likely that the Cowboys would
select a high-round running back in the NFL Draft, but when that
didn't happen, Rico Dowdle's fantasy value received a strong boost.
Although the Cowboys brought back Ezekiel Elliott, who is expected
to start the season as the lead back, Elliott's performance has
declined over the past few seasons, leaving the door open for
Dowdle to seize opportunities if he can show some spark in his
limited chances.
Most analysts anticipate that the Cowboys' backfield will operate
as a committee, but unlike many other teams featuring multi-player
backfields, the Cowboys' offense has been one of the best in the
league for several years. Despite this, neither Elliott nor Dowdle
is being selected as even an RB2 in fantasy drafts. Both players
often fall outside the RB3 range and into the RB4/RB5 territory
in many drafts. This presents a unique situation where fantasy
managers can find value without investing heavily.
There is a chance that neither Elliott nor Dowdle will emerge
as a weekly starter. However, there is also a reasonable chance
that one of them finishes as an RB2 almost exclusively based on
opportunity, particularly in the red zone. This potential makes
both players intriguing late-round picks.
Rico Dowdle, in particular, offers a compelling cost-to-opportunity
ratio. While he may not be a household name or a player that fantasy
managers are eager to draft, his situation in a high-powered offense
means he could end up with significant touches by the end of the
season. If Dowdle can carve out a role and become a 15-touch-per-game
player, he could provide excellent value, especially given his
low draft cost.
Dowdle represents a high-upside, low-cost option in fantasy drafts.
While he faces competition from Ezekiel Elliott, the potential
for Dowdle to ascend in the Cowboys' backfield and benefit from
a high-scoring offense makes him a worthwhile investment, particularly
for those looking to add depth and potential breakout players
in the later rounds.
CeeDee Lamb's performance in the 2023 season was nothing short
of spectacular, securing him as a top-tier fantasy wide receiver.
Although it is uncertain whether he would have maintained his
overall WR1 status had Tyreek Hill not been hindered by a late-season
injury, Lamb exceeded all expectations for those who drafted him.
He led the NFL in targets with 181 and receptions with 135, finishing
second in receiving yards and just one touchdown behind league
leaders Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. This impressive combination
of talent and opportunity demonstrated Lamb's undeniable status
as a cornerstone fantasy stud.
Now entering his fifth season, Lamb is poised to remain among
the league leaders in all of the major receiving statistics. The
Cowboys' offense has seen minimal changes from the previous year,
and there hasn't been any significant change to his target competition.
Despite ongoing contract negotiations with the front office, there
is also no indication that this situation will impact Lamb's ability
to get on the field and perform in 2024. In fact, he may be motivated
to have an even bigger season to strengthen his case for becoming
the highest-paid wide receiver ever next offseason.
Lamb's substantial target share in the high-powered Cowboys offense
makes him one of the safest and most valuable picks in fantasy
drafts. His potential to deliver a league-winning season has solidified
his position as a top-three pick in nearly every draft. The combination
of consistent performance, opportunity, and the drive to secure
a lucrative contract ensures that Lamb will be a focal point of
the Cowboys' offense and a key player for fantasy managers in
2024.
Brandin Cooks joined the Cowboys with the team having hopes that
he’d fill the void left by Amari Cooper’s departure
a few seasons ago, but his 2023 season was largely disappointing.
While Cooks is a recognized name, his performance metrics fell
below league averages, and his overall efficiency was lacking.
Despite scoring an impressive eight touchdowns on just 54 receptions—the
most he’s had since his 2016 season—Cooks’ 657
receiving yards were the lowest he's ever recorded in a full season.
As Cooks enters his 11th season, he remains projected as the
Cowboys' WR2. However, this role does not guarantee substantial
fantasy production unless he can dramatically improve his ability
to create separation and increase his yardage output. Given his
current trajectory, Cooks appears to be on the downswing of his
career, making him a risky investment in fantasy leagues.
For those in leagues with very deep starting lineups, Cooks might
offer some late-round value due to his potential for end-zone
targets. However, for most fantasy managers, investing in Cooks
doesn’t seem prudent given his diminished role and the limited
target share he is likely to receive behind the dominant CeeDee
Lamb. His status as a distant second, perhaps even third in targets
within the Cowboys' offense further limits his appeal, making
him an unattractive option for the 2024 fantasy season.
Jake Ferguson's 2023 season was notable for his high target volume,
with over 100 passes coming his way - a rare feat for tight ends.
Despite this, his efficiency was lacking, catching just 71 passes
for 761 yards and five touchdowns. Leading all tight ends in red
zone targets but only converting five of them into touchdowns
highlights his struggles in high-leverage situations. Given that
other than Sam LaPorta, no tight end scored more than six touchdowns
last season, Ferguson's five touchdowns underscore the broader
challenges at the position in 2023.
Ferguson's athleticism and target share limitations hinder his
potential to break into the high-end TE1 tier. However, he stands
out as the top tight end in the Cowboys' offense, ensuring he
receives enough opportunities to provide a stable floor for fantasy
managers. This consistency is something many other tight ends
being drafted behind him cannot offer, making him a relatively
safe option.
The only scenario that one could envision where Ferguson's value
could significantly increase is if CeeDee Lamb were to miss time,
opening up a substantial number of targets. With Brandin Cooks
being the only other proven pass-catcher in the offense, Ferguson
could see a significant uptick in targets in a Lamb-less offense.
However, Lamb has been durable throughout his career, making this
scenario unlikely. Therefore, it's not advisable to draft Ferguson
higher based on this hypothetical situation alone.
Ferguson's reliability and volume make him a solid TE option,
but his lack of elite athleticism and target share cap his upside,
positioning him as a steady but not spectacular mid-to-low-end
TE1 for the 2024 season.
