Tua Tagovailoa demonstrated his efficiency and skill by throwing
25 touchdowns with only eight interceptions in 2023, one of the
best touchdown-to-interception ratios in the league. Over his
four-year career, Tua has maintained a low interception rate of
just 2.3 percent of his passes, highlighting his reliability as
the Miami Dolphins' quarterback. With no significant competition
for his starting role, Tua's position is secure, making him a
stable choice as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 for fantasy football
managers.
Entering his third season under head coach Mike McDaniel, Tua
should be well-acquainted with the Dolphins' offense, which heavily
relies on targeting star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle,
who account for over 50 percent of the team's pass attempts. Tua's
ability to avoid sacks in 2023 has also eased concerns about his
health, further solidifying his dependability.
In 2023, Tua threw touchdowns on 5.2 percent of his passes, a
decent rate but not extraordinary. Without a significant increase
in his total pass attempts, he is unlikely to significantly surpass
his average draft position. Additionally, Tua's lack of contribution
in the rushing game limits his potential to break out as an elite
fantasy quarterback as we know that top-tier fantasy QBs either
typically excel in touchdown efficiency or are notable rushers,
and Tua does not possess either of these traits. Consequently,
while he is a safe and consistent option, he may not provide a
substantial fantasy edge over the competition even if he does
have another highly efficient season.
Tua’s consistency and familiarity with the Dolphins' offensive
scheme make him a trustworthy option, but he is best viewed as
a high-end QB2, someone you can rely on for steady performance
but ideally paired with a higher-upside QB1, particularly in Superflex
leagues.
In his rookie season of 2023, Miami Dolphins running back De’Von
Achane was nothing short of electrifying. His per-touch efficiency
was unprecedented, setting a new benchmark that no other player
has approached. He averaged an astonishing 7.8 yards per carry,
amassing 800 yards on just 103 touches. To put this into perspective,
Josh Jacobs, who finished one spot above Achane for the season,
rushed for 805 yards but needed 233 carries to do so.
Achane played in just 11 games, although his participation was
more limited in reality, as he had only one carry in two of those
games, effectively bringing his active game count closer to nine.
His 188-pound frame presents a higher risk for injury, which was
evident during his rookie season. Despite these challenges, he
managed to finish the season strong.
In addition to his rushing prowess, Achane was quietly effective
in the receiving game, catching 27 passes over his 11 regular
season contests. While this number is not particularly eye-catching,
it is significant given that he never fully assumed the role of
a bell-cow back and shared snaps in nearly every game. If Achane
sees more playing time this season, his utilization in both the
running and passing game could sustain a high fantasy points per
game average, even if his efficiency naturally declines.
Historically, players with outlier per-carry efficiency, such
as Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, are extraordinarily rare,
and maintaining such extraordinary performance is nearly impossible.
Achane's rookie season stands out as an exceptional case, and
while he offers immense upside and could be a league-winner, there
is an inherent risk due to his injury history and smaller frame.
Fantasy managers considering Achane should also hedge their bet
by investing in a more stable, less injury-prone running back
to complement him. This strategy balances the high-risk, high-reward
potential that Achane brings to the table, ensuring a more secure
lineup.
Raheem Mostert, one of the biggest late-round breakouts of the
2023 season, stunned fantasy managers by scoring an incredible
18 rushing touchdowns. Adding three more scores in the receiving
game, he led the league with a remarkable total of 21 touchdowns,
a feat achieved only by a historic Christian McCaffrey campaign.
Admittedly benefiting from injuries to teammates De’Von
Achane and Jeff Wilson, Mostert firmly established himself as
the team’s RB1 throughout the regular season, carrying the
ball at least 10 times in 13 of his 15 games.
Despite Mostert's impressive performance, most fantasy projections
and average draft positions place him significantly behind second-year
back Achane heading into the new season. However, there's a strong
possibility that the Dolphins' backfield could be more of a 50/50
split than some are anticipating. While Achane was historically
efficient on a per-touch basis in 2023, Mostert still managed
to average nearly five yards per carry for the second consecutive
season with the Dolphins. This level of efficiency is also rare,
and Mostert has defied expectations by playing in 31 games over
his two years in Miami, overcoming his previous reputation as
one of the league’s most injury-prone players.
Even with a potential timeshare with Achane, Mostert has a real
chance to be a difference-making fantasy back again in 2024. However,
there's also the risk that the Dolphins might decide to give the
majority of the workload to Achane, reducing Mostert to the role
of being one of the highest-upside handcuff running backs. Fantasy
managers will need to weigh the risks and rewards when considering
Mostert, as he has the potential to be a significant contributor
again if circumstances align in his favor.
The Dolphins recently added rookie running back Jaylen Wright
to their already stacked backfield, a move that could pay dividends
given his talent profile and how it fits within the McDaniel/Shanahan
offensive system. Known for favoring speedy and explosive backs,
McDaniel clearly targeted Wright in the draft, who averaged over
six yards per carry throughout his collegiate career in the SEC,
culminating in an impressive 7.4 yards per carry in his final
season. Wright’s knack for big plays is evident, as an impressive
14 percent of his rush attempts last season went for over 15 yards,
aligning him well with the Dolphins' existing backfield threats,
De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, who also possess historic
levels of explosive playmaking ability.
From a schematic standpoint, Wright landed in an ideal spot,
but he faces the challenge of competing for playing time behind
two of the league's top backs from last season. Despite this,
fantasy managers drafting Wright late should note the injury risks
associated with both Achane and Mostert. The Dolphins under McDaniel
have a history of employing a two-back system, even when one player
is performing exceptionally well. This history suggests that Wright
could work his way into the rotation if either Achane or Mostert
misses time due to injury.
However, there is a significant risk that Wright might see limited
or almost no playing time in 2024, which could make him a potential
bust even at a late-round price tag. Fantasy managers will need
to consider both his high upside and the possibility of limited
opportunities when deciding whether to invest in Wright. If circumstances
align, he could emerge as a valuable contributor in the Dolphins'
backfield.
Tyreek Hill's 2023 season was nothing short of historic. Leading
all pass-catchers with 1,799 receiving yards, he also tied with
Mike Evans for the league-best 13 receiving touchdowns. Hill's
average of 15.1 yards per reception was the highest among the
top-six leaders in total receiving yards, even outpacing Dallas'
CeeDee Lamb by over two yards per reception.
Hill turned 30 during the offseason, a milestone that often raises
concerns about potential decline. However, Hill showed no signs
of slowing down. Despite missing one game due to injury, he returned
with a nine-reception, 99-yard performance against the Cowboys
the very next week and consistently caught at least five passes
in each subsequent game, including the Dolphins' playoff matchup
against the Chiefs where he was the only Dolphin to score a touchdown.
Hill's draft position reflects his elite status, as he is being
selected in the top five in nearly all drafts. Although he's not
a cheap acquisition, Hill's potential for record-breaking performance
in 2024 makes him worth the investment. The Dolphins' offense
looks poised to sustain or even improve, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
could make further strides with another offseason under his belt.
Hill's ceiling is incredibly high, and he remains one of the safest
picks in the league as the Dolphins consistently find creative
ways to get the ball in Hill's hands, even when defenses are focused
on stopping him.
Tyreek Hill's exceptional 2023 season and the Dolphins’
lack of schematic changes position him as a premier fantasy asset
for 2024. His proven ability to perform at an elite level, combined
with an improving Dolphins' offense, makes him a reliably elite
option for fantasy managers.
Jaylen Waddle experienced some regression in 2023 after a breakout
season in 2022, yet he still managed to catch 72 passes for 1,014
yards in just 14 games. His 14.2 fantasy points per game placed
him as a mid-range WR2 on a per-game basis, despite finishing
the season with only four touchdowns. As the WR2 in the Dolphins’
offense, Waddle maintained a strong presence, garnering over 23
percent of the team’s total targets for the season even
though he missed three games.
While Waddle will likely remain behind Tyreek Hill in the target
hierarchy, he still possesses considerable upside along with a
solid floor as a WR2. There’s also some hidden upside as
in the one game Hill missed in 2023, Waddle showcased his potential
as the primary receiver by making a season-high eight receptions
for 142 yards against a formidable Jets defense. This performance
hinted at his ability to deliver explosive results, especially
if the game had been more competitive.
Waddle is currently being selected in the fourth round of many
drafts, often behind players who have never approached the ceiling
he demonstrated in 2022, or players who have considerably lower
floors. With a nearly guaranteed 20 percent target share and the
potential for 25 to 27 percent in one of the league’s most
efficient offenses, Waddle presents significant value. If he slips
in your fantasy drafts, he could be an excellent pick, offering
both consistency and the potential for high-end production.
Odell Beckham Jr. signed a largely incentive-based contract with
the Dolphins in May, positioning him within one of the league’s
most effective offenses. However, he finds himself as the third
option in the passing game, behind standout playmakers Tyreek
Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Beckham had a brief resurgence with the Rams in 2021, but his
overall performance has been disappointing for fantasy managers
and NFL teams since his stint with the Browns began in 2019. Over
the past three seasons, he has failed to surpass 600 receiving
yards and that doesn’t even count the fact that he did not
find a team to play for at all in 2022.
At 31 years old, the likelihood of Beckham reclaiming his status
as a significant fantasy contributor is slim. Even if Hill or
Waddle were to miss time, Beckham is not an equivalent replacement,
potentially leaving him to compete for playing time with role
players like Braxton Berrios in the Miami offense.
While Beckham's presence in a high-powered offense like Miami's
offers some intrigue, fantasy managers should temper their expectations.
His recent track record and the solidified talent ahead of him
on the depth chart suggest that Beckham's fantasy impact in 2024
will likely be minimal.
The Jonnu Smith signing aligns with the Dolphins' "speed
kills" philosophy under head coach Mike McDaniel, emphasizing
quickness and athleticism. Smith, a 6’3”, 250-pound
tight end, showcased his speed with a 4.62-second 40-yard dash
at the 2017 NFL Combine and remains one of the fastest tight ends
in the league. However, his once-promising career with the Titans
has yet to materialize into significant fantasy production. In
2023, Smith set career highs in receptions (50) and yards (582)
with the Falcons but only scored three touchdowns, thus failing
to make a substantial fantasy impact.
Smith now joins a Dolphins offense that may not be ideally suited
to his skill set. The team's top tight end from last season, Durham
Smythe, played over 72 percent of offensive snaps but saw only
43 targets, catching 35 passes for 366 yards and zero touchdowns.
Smythe was a non-factor in fantasy. This suggests a challenging
environment for Smith to excel within.
The Dolphins' offensive system, which led the league in 21 personnel
(two running backs, one tight end) usage at a staggering near-42
percent of their 2023 offensive snaps, focuses heavily on their
top two wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This leaves
limited opportunities for tight ends to be consistent fantasy
contributors. Even though Smith is a more capable and dangerous
pass-catcher than Smythe, the offensive scheme does not favor
tight ends, resulting in limited opportunities for breakout fantasy
performances.
Additionally, Smythe's familiarity with the offense likely ensures
he will still receive significant playing time, further reducing
Smith's potential impact. Given these factors, the Dolphins' tight
end group, including Jonnu Smith, is one to avoid for fantasy
purposes. The offensive system's design and the presence of Smythe
limit the opportunities for tight ends to shine, making it unlikely
that Smith will become a reliable fantasy asset in 2024.
