In the quarterback landscape for the New England Patriots, the
situation remains uncertain with Jacoby Brissett potentially starting
the season. However, amidst this uncertainty, rookie Drake Maye
emerges as a compelling figure for fantasy managers to monitor
closely. Known for his robust stature and impressive college statistics,
Maye demonstrated a knack for minimizing turnovers and delivering
under pressure throughout his collegiate career. Despite a puzzling
downturn towards the end of his final season, the consensus points
to Maye eventually blossoming into a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.
His profile suggests potential for elite production, although
immediate fantasy relevance may be limited by New England's offensive
challenges and his rookie status. Nevertheless, in Superflex and
two-quarterback formats, Maye presents an intriguing late-round
option with significant upside. Drawing comparisons to Josh Allen
in terms of both passing and rushing abilities, Maye could provide
substantial fantasy returns once he secures playing time in the
Patriots' lineup.
The Patriots are still considering their options, but their lack
of commitment to rookie Drake Maye suggests they are leaning toward
Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback to open the 2024
season. Brissett, a journeyman QB who has spent much of his career
as a backup, finds himself back in New England, where his professional
career began in 2016. He played minimally as a backup for the
Commanders in 2023, but he has started 48 games throughout his
career, giving fantasy managers a good idea of what to expect.
While Brissett is an excellent short-term fill-in, it’s difficult
to envision him as a long-term solution at QB for any NFL team,
especially one like the Patriots, who recently selected a quarterback
near the top of the draft. Brissett's lack of upside, compounded
by the mediocre offensive weapons in New England and his limited
contribution as a runner, leaves little reason for excitement
in any fantasy format.
In 2023, there were quite a few running back busts, but few hurt
fantasy managers more than Rhamondre Stevenson. Many assumed that
Stevenson would command a massive touch share after the Patriots
failed to invest significant assets in their running back depth
chart, opting instead to bring in Ezekiel Elliott, who most had
presumed was washed up. However, Stevenson conceded far more touches
to Elliott than expected, resulting in a very disappointing RB35
finish.
Stevenson played in just 12 games and was noticeably hindered
in several others, making him a tough player to start even when
he was active, as he was only the RB27 in fantasy points per game.
While it's easy to attribute Stevenson's lack of production to
his health issues, it's also important to note that he was stuck
in one of the league's worst offenses, which is expected to remain
subpar in 2024 despite presumed improvements.
With Elliott gone, the Patriots have replaced him with a younger,
more versatile back in Antonio Gibson. The exact division of touches
in the backfield is still unclear, but Gibson, who played wide
receiver in college, has primarily been utilized as a passing-down
specialist during his career with the Commanders. Stevenson might
see a higher percentage of red zone touches, particularly near
the goal line, but if the Patriots' offense struggles again, this
may not compensate for a potential drop-off in passing game usage,
especially in PPR formats.
The risk of a bad fantasy season for Stevenson is probably higher
heading into this season than it was before 2023. However, his
draft day price also reflects this risk, making the cost to acquire
Stevenson much lower this year, which should alleviate some concerns
about his potential bust factor.
New Patriots running back Antonio Gibson finds himself in a new
situation, which isn’t always ideal for fantasy purposes,
but the Patriots' offense isn’t much worse than what he
experienced with the Commanders. Unfortunately for Gibson, he
joins an offense that already has a viable pass catcher out of
the backfield in Rhamondre Stevenson. However, Stevenson was a
major disappointment in 2023, and the new Patriots coaching staff
has no ties to him. This could make Gibson a sneaky late-round
value, especially considering Stevenson missed significant playing
time last season and played through injuries in the games he didn't
miss.
While Gibson is unlikely to be a major fantasy contributor without
an injury to Stevenson, his presence could still be a thorn in
the side of Stevenson managers this season.
Demario Douglas was a late-round darling during many 2023 fantasy
drafts, but the rookie failed to deliver on the somewhat unfairly
ambitious expectations that some had for him. Douglas finished
the season with 561 yards on 49 catches - great numbers for a
sixth-round NFL draft pick - but he failed to score a single touchdown,
which meant that he delivered absolutely no spike weeks and thus
was fairly irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Looking forward to the 2024 season, there are multiple reasons
to be excited that the second-year wideout could ascend into becoming
a viable fantasy option, at least in deeper leagues. While Jacoby
Brissett is not a star and Drake Maye is a complete unknown as
an NFL QB, it’d be tough for either of them to be worse
than the quarterback play from Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe that
Douglas had to deal with a season ago. The same goes for the coaching
staff and offensive play calling which have both undergone an
overhaul during the offseason and should lead to a more explosive
offense if nothing else.
The Patriots' wide receiver room is still very much up in the
air, but Douglas projects to lead the team in slot snaps and probably
has the best chance of any New England pass catcher to emerge
as a weekly WR3 fantasy option here in 2024.
Patriots’ rookie wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk has a strong
chance to break out into fantasy relevance given the state of
the Patriots' wide receiver depth chart, which is one of the weakest
in the league. This should allow him to compete for playing time
much earlier than some of the receivers selected ahead of him
in the draft who find themselves in more competitive offenses.
However, the Patriots' offense lacks high power, so red zone
opportunities will likely be limited, which puts a cap on Polk's
realistic ceiling. Additionally, New England’s quarterback
situation is uncertain, with mediocre veteran Jacoby Brissett
competing with rookie Drake Maye. This will likely lead to growing
pains if and when the team decides to change quarterbacks.
Despite these challenges, Polk is a low-cost option who could
reasonably end up as the Patriots’ WR1 in 2024. While it's
unrealistic to start calling him “this year’s Puka
Nacua,” few players taken this late in drafts have the potential
to provide even a WR2 season. Therefore, it may be worth taking
a chance on this young pass catcher.
Kendrick Bourne had a quiet but reasonably productive first season
for the Patriots in 2023. The veteran led all New England wide
receivers with six touchdown receptions, catching 37 passes for
406 yards. While these numbers weren’t bad considering the
terrible situation he was in on one of the league’s worst
offenses, Bourne didn’t bring enough to the table to be
a viable fantasy option in anything but the deepest leagues.
Unfortunately, we should expect more of the same in 2024, as
teammate Demario Douglas is probably the odds-on favorite to lead
the team in receptions and yards. Even if Bourne sees more playing
time, he has almost zero potential to finish as a WR2 or even
a WR3 in fantasy.
Fantasy managers often make mistakes with players like Bourne.
Late in drafts, the focus should be on upside, not floor. Instead
of looking at his season-long projections next to the “draft”
button, consider the best-case scenario for this player. Even
if Bourne delivers WR36 numbers for the season, which would exceed
expectations, it won't significantly help you win your fantasy
league. Instead, target young players with the potential to breakout
and drastically exceed their expectations with your late-round
picks. While the chances are high that you might cut them from
your roster, Bourne will seldom make your lineup anyway, so it's
better to shoot for the moon with a player who offers more breakout
potential.
Hunter Henry is once again expected to lead the Patriots' depth
chart this season, and fantasy managers should expect him to finish
somewhere between 10th and 20th at his position. This range of
potential outcomes might seem wide, but in reality, especially
at tight end, it can come down to one or two touchdowns over the
entire year. There are only a handful of tight ends who make a
significant difference for their fantasy squads, and beyond that,
it's a guessing game on which player will sneak into the end zone
each week.
Henry lacks the physical ability to be an elite difference-maker
at this point in his career, and his questionable health history
adds to the risk. Additionally, he is still stuck in an inefficient
New England offense that is projected to finish near the bottom
of the league in both pass attempts and efficiency.
With Austin Hooper still on the roster and taking more snaps
than ideal, Henry doesn't offer enough upside to be a strong fantasy
option this season. While he may have a few games with big numbers,
the inconsistency in his performance means you might not have
him in your lineup when he has that magical two-touchdown game.
Henry is a fine TE2, particularly in leagues where you start
more than one tight end per week, but otherwise, he’s someone
you probably won’t regret avoiding in drafts this season.
