Jayden Daniels is the most prolific college rushing quarterback
from a Power Five conference school to be drafted in the first
round since Lamar Jackson. In his final two seasons at LSU, Daniels
rushed for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also threw an
impressive 40 touchdowns with just four interceptions in his final
collegiate season.
Rushing quarterbacks like Daniels provide reliable floors in
fantasy. Even players like Daniel Jones have provided QB1 seasons
in the past. However, it’s not just the floor that fantasy
managers should be excited about with Daniels—it’s
also his ceiling.
Of the top 10 quarterbacks from the 2023 season, five of them
rushed for more than 300 yards. Three of the top four—Josh
Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson—all exceeded 500 yards
on the ground. The only QBs who rushed for over 400 yards but
didn’t finish as a QB1 in 2023 were Justin Fields (QB18)
and Joshua Dobbs (QB20), both of whom started just 13 games. Fields
still ranked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game, despite throwing
for just 2,562 yards and 16 touchdowns, largely because he managed
to rush for 657 yards.
Daniels' upside as a runner is game-breaking. He may not be quite
as quick as Lamar Jackson, but he is likely the only other quarterback
in the NFL with the potential to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.
Of course, one of the biggest concerns with Daniels is his perceived
lack of arm strength and anticipation needed to be a high-level
passer at the next level. This could mean a trajectory more akin
to Justin Fields' early career. Still, from a fantasy standpoint,
Daniels is the type of player who can be a true difference-maker
if things click.
He’s being selected outside QB1 range in many drafts, making
him one of the best risk-reward players on the board this season.
Even at a low-end QB1 price tag, his rushing ability means that
Daniels provides a solid floor along with elite QB1 upside, making
him a strong target for savvy fantasy managers in 2024.
Austin Ekeler finished as the RB24 in 2023 after being the RB1
in 2022 and RB2 in 2021. Fantasy managers will remember Ekeler’s
2023 season as a massive bust, considering he was a first-round
selection in almost every draft. However, what’s often forgotten
is that Ekeler started the season strong with a 164-total-yard
game and a touchdown in Week 1 before sustaining a high ankle
sprain late in the contest. That injury has been a disaster for
countless running backs in recent seasons and it really derailed
Ekeler’s 2023 season.
Ekeler missed the next three games before returning in Week 5,
a game in which he rushed for just 27 yards on 14 carries. While
he maintained a streak of 14 to 20 carries for five straight weeks,
Ekeler never rushed for more than 70 yards during that stretch.
From that point on, Ekeler’s average carries per game dropped
to fewer than 11, and he scored just one touchdown while failing
to reach even 50 yards as a receiver in any of his final 10 games.
Sure, Ekeler’s body had sustained a ton of hits over the
previous few seasons, but it’s also very possible that he
was still dealing with the lingering effects of that Week 1 high
ankle sprain. This uncertainty and the change of scenery from
Los Angeles to a more competitive backfield in Washington have
led to Ekeler dropping from a Round 1 pick in 2023 all the way
down to being a borderline top-100 pick here in 2024.
The Washington offense is an interesting one, but could also
be a limiting factor for a player like Ekeler. While the team
is expected to be more electric with new quarterback Jayden Daniels
at the helm, rushing quarterbacks have historically relied much
less on their running backs in the passing game than traditional
pocket passers do. Justin Herbert had some athleticism but still
relied heavily on Ekeler in the passing game throughout their
time together. We shouldn’t expect anywhere near as much
of that from Daniels in his rookie season.
Still, Ekeler’s price tag makes him a potential value in 2024.
He has to fend off Brian Robinson Jr., who has shown himself to
be a competent NFL runner, but Ekeler is a much more dynamic player
and one that the new Commanders regime voluntarily brought in
this offseason. Look for him to lead what will almost certainly
be a split backfield, but he should get the majority of the touches
that fantasy managers are most excited about, both in the passing
game and near the goal line.
Robinson finished as the RB21 in 2023, slightly ahead of his
new teammate Austin Ekeler (RB24). His usage as a runner decreased
to 12 carries per game from 17 carries per game in 2022. However,
he saw a significant increase in his targets, jumping from just
12 in his rookie season to 43 in his second season. With former
backfield mate Antonio Gibson now in New England, there was hope
that Robinson might ascend to the bell cow status many had anticipated.
However, this offseason brought significant changes in Washington,
including a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and front
office, leading to the signing of Ekeler. Although Ekeler had
a disappointing 2023 season marked by injuries in Los Angeles,
he remains a big name that the new staff actively pursued.
Robinson and Ekeler are being drafted at nearly identical average
draft positions, indicating that the market is undecided about
how this backfield will shake out. The most likely scenario is
a split backfield, with Ekeler being more utilized on passing
downs and probably in the red zone, given his 25 rushing touchdowns
between the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
That scenario leaves Robinson as a player whose skill set is
best utilized between the 20s, on early downs, and late in games
when the Commanders are ahead and looking to run out the clock.
However, with just four wins in 2023, the 2024 Commanders don’t
figure to be a team that is ahead late in too many games.
Robinson has the potential to be an every-down back in the NFL,
but barring injuries, this doesn’t look like the season
where that will happen. As a result, he is a low-upside option
who fantasy managers will probably have on their benches for most
of the season.
Terry McLaurin has achieved four consecutive 1,000-yard receiving
seasons, but he has yet to surpass 1,200 yards and hasn't exceeded
five touchdowns since his rookie season when he scored seven times.
His early career has been marked by low-end WR2 fantasy production,
largely due to inconsistent-at-best and downright terrible quarterback
play at worst in Washington.
The Commanders sought to address their quarterback issues this
offseason by drafting Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick.
While this pick raises the team's overall upside, it also comes
with risk for a pass-catcher like McLaurin as critics have questioned
Daniels' arm strength and ability to read defenses. Although Daniels
is an exceptional athlete who could become a fantasy superstar,
this doesn’t necessarily mean his pass-catchers will meet
or exceed their fantasy ADPs.
Historically, rookie quarterbacks, especially those with high-level
rushing abilities, have struggled to produce elite fantasy wide
receivers. However, McLaurin is being drafted well outside of
WR2 range, making him a cost-effective option who is unlikely
to disappoint fantasy managers significantly. His current price
tag also offers interesting upside, as the improved Washington
offense could provide more scoring opportunities.
McLaurin finished 2023 ranked around where he’s being drafted
for the 2024 season, despite playing in a poor offense. As long
as he stays healthy, he should be a reliable bet to at least return
value for fantasy managers.
Jahan Dotson's rookie season showed promise, as he managed to
score seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions, making him a popular
late-round target for fantasy managers heading into his second
professional season in 2023. However, things quickly unraveled
for Dotson, as he scored just one touchdown in his first seven
games while failing to reach 50 receiving yards in any contest.
By the time he had his breakout game against the Eagles in Week
8, with eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown, many managers
had already benched or dropped him, thus missing out on the benefits
of his big performance.
Following that game, Dotson scored only two more touchdowns in
his final nine games and exceeded 50 yards just twice. His Week
8 game against Philadelphia was the only time he surpassed 70
receiving yards in a game.
Heading into his third season, some fantasy managers are again
considering Dotson as a late-round pick, seeing his current ADP
as offering high upside. However, the reality is that the Washington
offense may not be conducive to a breakout for Dotson. Terry McLaurin
remains the clear-cut WR1, and the 2024 Commanders are likely
to be significantly less pass-heavy than they were in 2023. The
team attempted 636 passes in 2023, the most in the NFL, but this
trend is expected to change.
Under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who historically
has had more balanced offenses, especially with a rookie quarterback
like Jayden Daniels, the Commanders are unlikely to replicate
their high pass attempt volume from last year. Kingsbury's previous
offenses in Arizona ranked 18th, 15th, and 18th in pass attempts
before a fourth-place finish in 2022.
Given these factors, it's unlikely that Dotson will emerge as
a true difference-maker in the Washington offense. If any pass-catcher
is going to stand out, it's almost certainly going to be McLaurin
rather than ancillary pieces like Dotson, who failed to break
out even when his team led the league in pass attempts.
Veteran tight end Zach Ertz signed with the Commanders this offseason
and is currently expected to lead the depth chart heading into
the season. Ertz is a former 1,000-yard receiver but has dealt
with numerous injuries, failing to reach even 500 yards in each
of the past two seasons.
Now with a new team, Ertz reunites with former Arizona Cardinals
head coach Kliff Kingsbury, who is now calling plays for the Commanders.
Ertz experienced a career resurgence when he joined the Cardinals
midway through the 2021 season, catching 56 passes for 574 yards
and three touchdowns in just 11 games. The return to a Kingsbury-led
offense is almost certainly a positive for Ertz, who caught just
27 passes for 187 yards and one touchdown in seven games for the
Cardinals in the 2023 season following Kingsbury’s departure.
Ertz’s health is now a major concern, especially considering
he will turn 34 during the 2024 season. However, he will likely
be a significant part of the Washington offense, at least early
in the season. This makes him a potentially decent fallback option
for fantasy managers who pass on the position in deep leagues
that start more than one tight end. While his age and injury history
are concerns, Ertz's familiarity with Kingsbury's system could
provide him with a valuable role in the Commanders' offense.
Rookie tight end Ben Sinnott has received high praise from the
draft community, with many ranking him as the TE2 in this class
behind only Brock Bowers. The Commanders prioritized him in the
draft, selecting the Kansas State tight end in the second round.
At 6’4” and 250 lbs, Sinnott combines respectable
speed with excellent overall athleticism, demonstrated by his
productive final collegiate season in which he caught 49 passes
for 676 yards and six touchdowns. He also maintained a relatively
clean bill of health throughout college, further solidifying his
status as one of the safer tight ends in the draft.
Sinnott joins a Washington team that quietly led the NFL in total
pass attempts last season. While the team has undergone significant
changes this offseason, there’s still a chance he could
see plenty of opportunities. He's likely to start the season behind
Zach Ertz on the depth chart, but Ertz has struggled with injuries
for multiple seasons, potentially allowing Sinnott to see more
playing time than most TE2s.
However, recent history suggests that Washington’s offensive
coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, might not have a great eye for potential
at the tight end position. In 2022, Kingsbury's first season as
head coach of the Cardinals, rookie Trey McBride barely saw the
field until Ertz suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10. The
following season, with Kingsbury gone, McBride broke out, catching
81 passes for 825 yards.
While McBride and Sinnott are not directly comparable players,
it’s notable that Kingsbury tends to lean more heavily on
veteran skill position players in his offenses than most other
coaches do. This trend could limit Sinnott's immediate impact,
especially with Ertz on the roster.
Sinnott could eventually be a great selection for fantasy managers
in dynasty drafts, but his prospects for a breakout in 2024 are
uncertain unless Ertz suffers another injury. If that does happen,
Sinnott should be prioritized on the waiver wire, as he’s
one of the few TE2s on rosters who have a realistic potential
to provide weekly starter numbers if given a starting role.
