Marshall will need Chan Gailey to work
his magic if he's going to be a productive fantasy WR in 2015.
Just prior to the start of the free agency period, the mercurial
Brandon Marshall was dealt to the Jets for a fifth-round pick. Going
from the Midway to Broadway is going to have wide reaching fantasy
impacts, especially for Marshall. So how big of a dip in production
will the top-flight receiver take? It’s important to evaluate
a few factors before we know for sure.
Fantasy Impact
First and foremost is the trigger-man change. Before their bromance
collapse last season, Jay
Cutler and Marshall made beautiful music together. Targeted
relentlessly by his quarterback, Marshall amassed 100-catch seasons
with regularity when Cutler was at the command. Plagued by erratic
play since being drafted, Geno
Smith has a chance to become Marshall’s new quarterback, and
a seemingly instant downgrade from Cutler. Smith has a horrid 25-34
touchdown to interception rate during his first two seasons, and
yo-yoed his way from the starting line-up to the bench a few times
last season. Should Marcus Mariota fall to the Jet’s in the draft,
Smith’s days in New York may be numbered. So essentially, Marshall’s
fantasy stock depends on a thin ice surfing Geno Smith or a rookie
from a college spread offense? Nope, it actually falls on a 63-year-old
offensive coordinator and the recently acquired Ryan
Fitzpatrick.
Running the spread before it became in vogue, Gailey coaxed three
straight 3,000+ yard, 24-touchdown seasons from Fitzpatrick from
2010-2012. That is impressive enough, but it pales in comparison
to the 18-touchdown 2,600-plus-yard season he got out of Tyler
Thigpen in 11 starts during the 2010 season in Kansas City.
Talking about squeezing water from a stone! Clearly, Gailey has
the impressive track record of getting production from mediocre
talents at the position. But even though Marshall’s fantasy value
is tied to his quarterback, it’s important to note that Gailey knows
how to utilize No.1 receivers. The Bills main wide receiver during
the Fitzpartick/Gailey era, was the very fantasy relevant Steve
Johnson who tallied 75-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards and 5-plus
touchdowns from 2010-2012. Keep in mind, those are far and away
his best seasons as a pro.
Another positive for Marshall is the presence of Eric Decker, and
the potential emergence of second-year tight end Jace Amaro. Decker
and potentially Amaro, need to be respected by defenses, and this
means Marshall should be able to avoid a barrage of coverage shifts,
and double-teams.
A change of scenery could do wonders for Marshall’s attitude,
and he should be able to fall back on his intelligence and personality
to adjust to life in the Big Apple. His size, and red-zone game
should help offset his age, and his offensive scheme should help
balance the drop-off in quarterback talent. All in all, don’t
be too quick to signal the death knell on Marshall’s fantasy
value. While his days of being a sure-fire No.1 wide receiver with
100-plus catches and 10-plus touchdowns are probably over, a season
like he had his final year in Miami (81-1200-6) is certainly within
reason, putting him solidly in the WR2 conversation.
