I noted in my
2014 player outlooks that Joe Flacco was a much more efficient
passer when asked to throw the ball less. This held true in 2014,
as Flacco’s pass attempts dropped from a career high 614 in 2013
to a more manageable 555 last season. Despite those 59 fewer attempts,
Flacco threw for just as many yards, 8 more touchdowns, 10 less
interceptions, and completed 3% more of his passes. In Gary Kubiak’s
stretch-based, intermediate passing game scheme, Flacco was as efficient
as ever despite a questionable set of pass catchers. Although he
finished as the 14th overall quarterback, he fell into that 8-14
slot that was interchangeable, giving Flacco fringe QB1 value. With
significant changes in offensive scheme, and personnel, what is
in store for Flacco in 2015?
The biggest change comes in the switch from Kubiak’s run-to-pass
scheme to Marc Trestman’s pass-to-run scheme, but this doesn’t automatically
mean Flacco’s pass attempts are going to skyrocket. Veteran lid
lifter Torrey Smith departed for San Francisco and Dennis Pitta
remains an unknown. Replacing these two stalwarts are a pair of
rookies. One a raw, but gifted receiver from Central Florida in
Breshad Perriman, and the other a mammoth 2nd round pick from Minnesota
in Maxx Williams. These two will join the grizzled pair of Steve
Smith and Justin Forsett to form the core of Flacco’s passing game
options. Look for Baltimore to employ a conservative, but complex
passing game approach that utilizes dump-offs and crossing patterns,
mixed with well-timed deep balls to Perriman. Flacco’s passing numbers
should remain in the same ballpark as 2014, with continued efficiency
due to Trestman’s tutelage. Flacco’s fantasy prospects remain much
like they have during his entire career. A fringe QB1 that’s best
suited as a high end QB2 in standard leagues, but makes for a sneaky
value pick in daily or large leagues.
I didn’t even have Forsett in my 2014 player outlooks, and I don’t
feel bad about it at all! If I had known Forsett would somehow emerge
from a career’s worth of obscurity to finish as the No.8 overall
fantasy running back, I’d still be counting my fantasy league winnings.
Forsett was the benefactor of the Ray Rice fiasco, the Bernard Pierce
implosion, and ideal scheme fit of Gary Kubiak. He shattered every
career high with his 235-1266-8 line, adding 44 catches for 263
yards. He was magnificently efficient, posting a silly 5.4 –ypc
average. Amazingly, Forsett and Demarco Murray were the only two
running backs in the league who posted a double digit (17) total
of rushes of 20-plus yards. A whopping 16 percent of Forsett’s
total rushing attempts went for 10+ yards which meant he had a monster
weekly floor, even without a heavy volume of carries. Every week
I waited for the shine to dull, but Forsett got better as the year
went on, posting five of his six 100-yard games from Week 10 onward.
Clearly Forsett was that rare out-of-nowhere gem last season, but
what happens now that he’s more of a known commodity and an offensive
centerpiece?
While the Ravens say they are going to leave most of the zone blocking
schemes in place from the previous offense that made Forsett so
effective, the loss of Kubiak will have a profound effect. Expect
Forsett’s ground totals to take a hit, but a boost in receptions
is nearly a given. Trestman’s usage of running backs as receiving
threats out of the backfield is well documented, and this meshes
up well with Forsett’s strengths as a pass catcher. Forsett
should threaten 70 receptions, easily besting his career high of
44 last year. His total touches, yardage and touchdowns should remain
steady, but I do have concerns about how he will respond physical
to the nearly 300 touches he received last year. He had never been
close to even 200 touches in any single season in his career, and
looked out of gas at times with a lingering ankle injury in Weeks
15, 16, and in the Wild Card game against the Steelers. Don’t
ignore the potential impact of bruising second-year runner Lorenzo
Taliaferro either. He’s sure to steal more than a handful
of carries from the returning vet, especially near the goal line.
I have doubts he can repeat his RB1 performance from a year ago,
and would be much more comfortable with Forsett as a strong RB2
that provides a consistently high floor.
Should the soon-to-be 30 year old Justin Forsett go down for a stretch,
look for the duo of Taliaferro and Allen to be two-man clean-up
crew. Taliaferro, the 2014 4th rounder from Coastal Carolina posted
a solid 68-292-4 line in only ten games for the Ravens last year.
He played significant snaps in Week 3 and 4 when the Ravens backfield
was going through a transition phase, but a mix of ball security
issues, and the dynamite play of the veteran Forsett, meant that
Taliaferro was relegated to short yardage or mop up duty. With Bernard
Pierce and Ray Rice no longer on the roster, Taliaferro has a much
more direct line to snaps in 2015. Despite an uptick in snaps, Taliaferro
only holds value as a handcuff to Forsett, and even in that role
has a low ceiling due the lack of passing game chops, and the presence
of 4th round rookie Buck Allen. Allen’s short area quickness,
speed, and size make him a near physical clone of Bernard Pierce,
who enjoyed occasional success during his rookie year. Look for
Allen to compliment Taliaferro as a passing game specialist in the
event of a Forsett injury. I like Allen as a superior upside candidate
should Forsett suffer a long term injury, and would be my preferred
handcuff to Forsett.
More than any team in recent memory, Baltimore benefited from two
spectacular career resurgent seasons from two players that were
virtual cast-offs. Justin Forsett and Steve Smith were the offense
for the Ravens for the better part of the season, and the main reason
why their team made another playoff appearance. Tossed aside by
the franchise he called home for 13 seasons, Smith departed Carolina
and was supposed to be a complementary veteran presence for a Ravens
team hungry to replace the leadership they lost when Anquan Boldin
left for San Francisco. Smith met his leadership obligations, but
surpassed any and all production expectations with his 79-1056-6
season. Smith spent the first six games of the season, cruising
along as a WR1 before hitting the skids over the second half of
the year. Smith’s drop in production could be attributed to
a combination of age, Torrey Smith finding his game, and increased
defensive respect. Whatever the causes, Smith’s production
dropped sharply after a hot start, as he tallied only one 100-yard
game and three touchdowns over the final 12 games. Unfortunately
for Smith, his bark remains stronger than his bite, and although
he can never be counted out, the changes on the Baltimore offense
don’t necessarily point to fantasy stardom. Replacing Torrey
Smith is rookie Breshad Perriman. The 1st rounder, while a great
fit and high upside talent, simply isn’t ready to be the lead
dog of this passing game just yet. That task, at least until Perriman
develops, will fall to Smith. Look for a drop in production, as
more passes go through the backfield, and defenses double Smith.
There is enough volume in the Trestman scheme to keep Smith as a
relevant fantasy asset, but I’d be shocked with anything more
than a WR3 finish.
The biggest knock on Torrey Smith, and probably the main reason
Baltimore allowed him to leave in free agency was the fact he never
became much more than a deep threat. The Ravens hope that Perriman,
the 1st rounder from Central Florida can develop into what Torrey
Smith couldn’t, an all-around threat capable of winning all
over the field. The son of former NFLer Brett Perriman, Breshad
finds himself in a fantastic position to make fantasy waves in his
rookie season. Possessing a rare speed-size combination, Perriman
has all the physical tools to be an elite receiver at the pro level.
The pieces around him, from Coach Trestman’s offense, to the
tutelage of Smith and the arm of Flacco, mean Perriman is going
to be in a place to make an impact. If he develops quickly, quiets
the skeptics who are concerned about his focus, and proves to be
more than a one-trick pony, Perriman’s reception floor should
be 50, with room for more. His size and speed make him a scoring
threat from anywhere on the field, meaning touchdowns will add to
his potential scoring yield. All things considering, I like Perriman
to make a bigger fantasy impact in year one than some of his higher
drafted peers. Start Perriman off as a WR3 with upside, who could
be putting up WR2 production down the stretch of the season.
TE Maxx
Williams (2014 TE Rank – N/A)
Just several years ago, Ravens’ tight ends made up a valuable
market share of the fantasy tight end position. But after a second
hip fracture for Pitta and the drafting of Williams in the 2015
draft, fantasy owners may be forced to look elsewhere for tight
end production in 2015. Anything the Ravens get from Pitta would
be a miracle, but as long as he’s on the roster, you have
to remember his name. The player I’m intrigued by is Williams,
the gifted athlete from Minnesota whom the Ravens traded up in the
2nd round to draft. Williams, the consensus No.1 tight end in the
draft, enters the NFL with the physical tools to be a factor. Rookie
tight ends rarely make much of a fantasy splash, even if they play
important roles for their teams. Look for Williams to be a part
of specific packages at first, severely limiting his fantasy potential.
Watch his development in the preseason and early season closely,
as there is a definite need on the Ravens offense for playmakers
in the passing game, and Williams could make a sneaky value play
mid-way through the year. As it stands, Williams is at best a shot
in the dark TE2, but better left on the waiver wire to be monitored.
