The Cleveland offense might very well be the black hole of fantasy
production in 2015. Leading the way is the very undynamic duo of
McCown and Manziel. In McCown you have a career back-up who is on
his seventh team in 12 years. With Manziel you have a walking punchline
that in serious danger of flaming out of the NFL in only his second
year.
McCown turned an eight-game stretch with the Bears in 2013 into
a big contract with the Bucs, but while in Tampa, displayed the
mistake prone tendencies and inaccuracy that has made him a second
and third stringer. I might be a little more bullish on McCown if
he had Josh Gordon, but as it stands, Gordon will be catching as
many passes in the NFL this year as I will, and the rest of the
receivers in Cleveland are castoffs or possession types that won’t
make many plays down the field. Even with Mike Evans and Vincent
Jackson in Tampa, McCown completed only 56% of his passes and threw
three more interceptions than touchdowns. I think Cleveland’s defense
and run game will be great, leaving the passing game to be very
vanilla and safe, meaning McCown won’t have the luxury of volume
to help his stats. His starting spot is tenuous at best with Manziel
behind him, so even in two quarterback leagues I wouldn’t give McCown
much of a serious consideration.
The man formally known as “Johnny Football” has undergone
a transformation this offseason. He’s ditched the theatrics,
cut down on the buffoonery, and focused on football. Perhaps if
he was as focused last offseason, he wouldn’t have put up
one of the most disgusting rookie debuts in recent memory in a Week
15 stinker vs Cincinnati. But even his recent epiphany might not
be enough to get him back on the field. Reports out of OTAs indicated
Manziel is struggling with basic mechanics, as well as the playbook.
When your opponents are Rice and Sam Houston State, you can get
by with improvising and sheer athletic ability. When the Ravens
or Bengals come to town you better be prepared, and he hasn’t
been since he’s entered the league. The positive is he really
can’t be worse than he was last year, and because he doesn’t
have much ahead of him on the depth chart, he’s sure to play
more snaps in 2015. There’s no doubt his athletic, dual threat
upside make fantasy owners drool, and he certainly might flash in
a spot start at some point this season, but let another owner make
that gamble, and leave Manziel on the waiver wire.
If you are looking for a value sapping committee situation, welcome
to the Cleveland backfield! Crowell the former five-star recruit
from Alabama State was certainly outstanding considering he was
an undrafted free agent that was fourth on the depth chart in the
2014 offseason. He finished second in the Brown’s three-headed ground
attack with 148 carries for 607 yards, but paced the team in rushing
touchdowns with eight. The 5’ll’’, 225lb back displayed patience
and vision as he ran behind one of the league’s better offensive
lines. Nearly 14 percent of his carries went for 10-plus yards,
which means he found the holes and hit them quickly. While quickness
and vision are strengths, tackle breaking and elusively were clear
weakness for Crowell in his first season. He only broke 9 tackles
out of 148 attempts, which tells me he benefits greatly from a superior
run blocking line. Luckily for Crowell’s fantasy value, the line
remains intact. Unfortunately for his fantasy value, Cleveland drafted
Miami’s Duke Johnson in the 3rd round; meaning Crowell’s path to
consistent playing time will be in serious jeopardy. He didn’t get
much work in the passing game (only 9 receptions last year), and
the Cleveland coaching staff has already stated that running back
snaps will be dictated by game plan and practice reps, making Crowell’s
weekly floor very suspect. Despite some of the negatives, Crowell
is the team’s most talented runner and probable goal line back.
The Browns are going to run a ton this year, but the three-man committee
is going to suppress Crowell’s value to that of a RB3/4 instead
of what could be an RB2.
Update 7/14/16:Crowell's social
media incident has caused his average draft position to tumble a
good two rounds.
When Cleveland’s 2014 wheel of running back fortune landed
on Terrance West he was a productive RB2. When he was an afterthought,
he was barely rosterable. And therein lies the problem for fantasy
owners evaluating the 2015 value of Terrance West. He’s displayed
the athleticism and ability to play well in the NFL after coming
from a small school, but the rotational system the Browns employ
at their running back position means West could be first or last
in the weekly pecking order. West excels on inside zone and trap
runs, but doesn’t have the speed or vision to excel on the
off-tackle and outside runs that teammate Isaiah Crowell has. West
is also an afterthought in the passing game, compiling only 11 receptions,
meaning he lacks the supplemental value of teammate Duke Johnson.
Of the three Cleveland backs, I think West offers the least fantasy
upside. He’ll never dominate touches, despite an injury to
a teammate, and lacks the athletic skills to break off large chunks
of yardage. Based on Cleveland’s scheme and o-line, West will
have fantasy value though. Just figuring out what week that is could
be a nightmare. Roster West as a RB4/5 and hope he is somehow able
to emerge as the hot-hand in the Cleveland backfield.
Despite being a nondescript third round selection by a poor team,
the Duke Johnson hype train is full steam ahead this offseason.
The 5’9’’, 210 pound back from Miami brings quite
a pedigree to the NFL. Johnson became the Hurricanes all-time leading
rusher last season, and that is no small accomplishment. Anyone
who has played fantasy football during the last 15 years has seen
former Hurricane backs like Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, and
Frank Gore become dominant RB1s. Johnson’s physical attributes
and dual threat game compare favorably to these former stand outs.
OTA reports have him making a smooth transition, drawing Giovani
Bernard comparisons for his quickness and pass receiving ability,
and that’s just the role I suspect the Browns will assign
Johnson in his first season. The trio of Crowell, Tate, and West
combined for a pathetic 29 receptions last year, so Johnson’s
skillset is clearly a big need for a team that projects to employ
a very conservative passing attack. The Cleveland running back rotation
is set to be extremely specialized, as each possesses specific strengths
and weakness that will ebb and flow with the game plan. I like Johnson
to easily lead this committee in receptions, as he could be the
second or third leading receiver on the team when all is said and
done. With a limited ground role, Johnson is clearly a better PPR
option, where he could flirt with RB3 value. I think Crowell offers
more in standard leagues, but wouldn’t be upset to roster
Johnson as a RB4/5 with upside.
At this point in his career Dwayne Bowe is better suited as a complimentary
WR2, rather than a WR1 trying to replace the dominant Josh Gordon.
It’s been a long time since Bowe put up an elite line of 72-1162-15
in 2010. He (and in fairness, the entire Kansas City receiving corps)
reached a new low of ineptitude, as he caught 60 passes for 754
yards, but failed to find the endzone. Some might argue the conservative
passing schemes and limited arm strength of Alex Smith torpedoed
Bowe’s fantasy value. I’ll be quick to remind those
people that Josh McCown offers a downgrade in quarterback talent
and Cleveland projects to be one of the least passing teams in the
NFL. He’s big, and sure to be featured much more than he was
the last few seasons, but the quarterback situation really limits
his upside and value. The good news is he’ll come very cheap,
and could be had very late in the draft, making him a great target
as a WR4 on your roster.
After being a valuable fantasy surprise in 2012 and 2013 with 1000-plus-yard,
70+ catch seasons, Hartline disappeared last season in Miami as
his target, reception, and yardage totals approached career lows.
Hartline’s combination of salary, production, and scheme fit
led to his release from the Dolphins after the season. While he’s
never been much of a touchdown scorer, Hartline provides the Browns
with a solid possession receiver option with underrated run after
the catch skills. He’s a nice piece for the Browns, but this
offense simply can’t support two fantasy relevant receivers.
Stick with Bowe if you’re looking for value.
Oh look, another cast-off pass catcher that has latched onto to
a doomed passing game. Housler comes to Cleveland as a free agent
after a barely there 9-catch 2014 season in Arizona. The Browns
need a playmaker to replace (a reoccurring theme with the Cleveland
passing offense) the departed Jordan Cameron . Housler might seem
like a poor bet to do so, but I see some decent potential with TE2
upside possibilities from Housler. Just two years removed from a
45-catch season, injuries and poor scheme fit have held Housler
back from his potential. In Cleveland, the 6’5’’
beast with 4.5 speed finds himself with a clear line to opportunities
to catch the football. He should be featured in the redzone and
is an easy bet to surpass his career total of 1 touchdown. In fact,
look for Housler to become an integral part of the short passing
attack, and surpass his career highs across the board. Josh McCown
has experience using large receivers to his advantage, and Housler
fits the bill. Look for Cleveland to get Housler in space against
slower linebackers and smaller safeties with crossing and curl routes.
Housler is going to be nearly invisible in your fantasy league,
and could easily be added at the very end of your draft as your
TE2 with some upside. Low risk, decent reward – something
to look out for, especially at the tight end position.
