After a shoulder injury limited him to just nine games in 2013,
Rodgers roared back in 2014, planting his flag on the pinnacle of
the fantasy quarterback mountain. Rodgers nabbed his second NFL
MVP award and finished with 33 more touchdowns than interceptions
(30+ four times in the last five seasons). With the re-signing of
the electric Randall Cobb, the assumed health of Jordy Nelson, and
the development of young pass catchers Devante Adams, Jeff Janis,
and Richard Rodgers, A-Rod helms the league’s most potent passing
attack, making him an elite QB1.
Most of the offseason buzz surrounding the Packers concerns the
growth of Adams and Janis, two players who should provide Rodgers
with a veritable barrage of weapons to deploy against NFL defenses.
It will also be interesting to see how a change in play callers
will affect the Packer’s offensive aggressiveness, as Mike
McCarthy gives way to Tom Clements. With nearly unrivaled offensive
weaponry, a consistent offensive system, and a need to score points
to protect an inconsistent defense, Rodgers yearly domination is
one of the surer things in fantasy football. But if you look deeply
enough through the roses and buttercups, some ugly spots lurk in
the background that could foil the best laid plans.
After several injuries early in his career slapped him with an “injury
prone” label, Rodgers has been a 16 game starter in six of
the last seven seasons. But the last two seasons haven’t ended
well from a health perspective. The severe calf injury to close
out the 2014 didn’t cause him to miss games, but it severely
limited what he could do outside the pocket, and may have revealed
the start of a potential physical breakdown. Combine his age (31)
with the fact that the NFC North defenses should be collectively
better in 2015 than they were last year, means there could be a
few more bumps in the road than normal.
Every princess has a wart somewhere, but that doesn’t mean you don’t
take them to the ball. Rodgers should be battling Andrew Luck for
QB1A supremacy, so consider yourself at a distinct advantage with
Aaron leading your squad.
In 2013 Lacy finished his rookie year as the No.7 overall running
back with a 14.0 FPts/G average. Lightning nearly hit the same
place twice, as Lacy moved up a spot on the rankings and improved
his FPts/G average by nearly a point. Can fantasy owners expect
similar numbers in 2015? In a word, YUP!
After a maddeningly slow start to the 2014 season (1 touchdown,
and no games over 43 yards during Weeks 1-4), it seemed Lacy was
on his way to catastrophic bust status. Many impatient fantasy
owners panicked and sold low, thinking the runner from Alabama
was on the verge of following in the footsteps of other failed
Crimson Tide backs. While Lacy didn’t approach the carry numbers
from his rookie year (284-246), he did increase his yards-per-carry
from 4.1 to 4.6, which shows an improving understanding of blocking
schemes, and running lanes. After that horrific start, Lacy finished
the season incredibly strong with 157-766-4 (4.9 ypc) over the
final eight games of the season. Five of his highest rushing attempt
totals came during this stretch, which also happened to coincide
with the injury to Rodgers.
As long as Rodgers is under center, the Packers are going to throw
the ball around the field with great frequency as they build leads.
The passing attack, and the desire to limit his carries to keep
him fresh for the long haul, will conspire to keep Lacy’s yardage
totals in check, but being a three-down back on the best offense
in football is an incredibly valuable commodity. He’s the element
of the Packer offense that keeps defenses honest, and his touchdown
potential, combined with his work in the passing game, make him
one of the highest floor RB1s in fantasy football. With health,
expect Lacy to again approach top-5 totals.
Stuck behind a workhorse on a pass first offense, James Starks
failed to carve out much more than a nominal role in 2014. After
a slight uptick in touches during Lacy’s early season struggles,
Starks usage fell off the map late in the season when Lacy heated
up. Starks’s role as a “breather back” is clearly defined after
the last two years, and one that is unlikely to change much in
2015. He’s basically a sub 4.0 ypc career runner, and offers very
little fantasy value outside an injury handcuff to Lacy.
WR Jordy
Nelson (2014 WR Rank - No.2, 14.4 FPts/G)
After his All-Pro 2014 season, Nelson is firmly entrenched as
a top flight NFL receiver. Fantasy owners have basked in the glow
of two straight dominant seasons , where Nelson has been targeted
277 times, caught 183 passes for 2,833 yards and found the end-zone
21 times. He’s one of the more fundamentally sound receivers in
the league, able to take slants and curls for long gains, dominate
along the sideline on fade and back-shoulder routes, and take
slower corners and safeties deep down the field. He’s the favorite
target of an All-World quarterback on the best passing offense
in the league. Good golly, what more could you want? Before we
all drown in the overwhelming praise for Nelson, let’s take a
quick look at a potentially big red flag.
Nelson underwent a “minor clean-up procedure” on his hip this
offseason, and was off his feet for several months. Early OTA
(and intrasquad softball game) reports have Nelson right on track
from his recovery, but I’m not nearly naïve enough to consider
any type of hip procedure “minor”. Keep a close eye on Nelson’s
practice reps this summer, as the hip is an area of the body that
takes a lot of abuse, and is key to a receiver’s ability to get
into and out of breaks. Hip injuries can linger, and may limit
Nelson early in the season as he rounds into shape. Don’t be surprised
if Nelson’s catch and yardage numbers slip a bit from last year’s
pace, as he falls from the top-5.
Early this offseason it seemed a good bet that the Packers wouldn’t
be able to resign Randall Cobb. But thankfully for Packers fans,
and Cobb owners, the 5’10’’ blur of a receiver will be catching
passes from Aaron Rodgers and not David Carr or Blake Bortles
in 2015 (disaster averted!) after he signed a four-year $40 million
deal in March.
To put it mildly, Cobb went off last year. On the back of his
career best 91-1287-12 line, Cobb finished just out of the top
5 in standard scoring. The receptions and yards aren’t as eye-popping
for the high volume slot receiver, but what does stand out are
the 12 touchdown receptions. Bucking serious statistical trends,
Cobb is a rare sub six-foot receiver to score double-digit touchdowns
in the red zone. Are these numbers sustainable or repeatable?
The answer to that question will largely shape where Cobb falls
in the final 2015 receiver rankings.
With more hands in the cookie jar, can Cobb hope to replicate
his stats from a year ago? As long as Rodgers is flinging the
ball around, I think he can. Cobb demonstrated touchdown scoring
chops in 2012 when he found the end zone eight times, so approaching
double digits again is certainly plausible. The catches and yardage
will be there in the high volume Packer attack, so the biggest
question remains the development of the younger Packer receivers.
Will Devante Adams, Jeff Janis, and tight end Richard Rodgers
demand more run in the weekly game plan, especially in the red
zone? Aaron Rodgers, like many veteran quarterbacks, greatly value
the familiarity and timing that comes with veteran receivers,
especially in the red zone. I don’t believe that the other receivers
will make much of a dent into Cobb’s numbers, and expect him to
once again be a top-10 receiver, and an easy WR1.
In 2012 James Jones scored 14 touchdowns as the No.3 receiver
for the Packers. If that doesn’t make you sit up and take notice
of 2015’s No.3 receiver Davante Adams, you might need a foam cheesehead
lobotomy. Adams, Green Bay’s second-round pick in 2014, nearly
saw his pre-season fantasy stock explode before the bubble burst
and Randall Cobb was re-signed. Even thought he might be a few
slots lower on the food chain, Adams offers the Packers’ offense
incredible flexibility, and offers fantasy owners a great value
target.
Adams has the talent, and seemingly the work ethic to become a
serious factor in the Green Bay offense in 2015. Offseason reports,
from his own quarterback no less, have been glowing. The arrow
is clearly pointing up after his 38-446-3 line his rookie year.
Adams was dominate at Fresno State, and he makes great use of
his 6’1’’ 210 pound frame to box out defenders, and catch the
ball at its high point. As his route running and timing improved,
so did his involvement in the offense, as Adams had two 11-target,
110+ yard games during the second half of the year. That second
game coincidentally came in the playoff win vs the Cowboys, and
while he was a non-factor in the NFC title game vs Seattle, Adams
clearly has the support of his coach and quarterback. Make Adams
a late draft value selection.
I’m not planning on focusing on many team’s fourth wide receiver
positions during this year’s Player Outlooks, but when you play
on a passing offense that the Packers field, it’s worth a look.
Janis is garnering serious hype this offseason, as he’s already
seen first team reps with Jordy Nelson sidelined. Janis was a
raw rookie out of Saginaw Valley State in 2014, and predictably
didn’t see much time on offense (2 catches, 19 yards). But the
6’3, 220-pounder is doing everything he can to improve on those
numbers. While handcuffs are usually reserved for the running
back position, I wouldn’t hesitate to add Janis as an insurance
policy if I was a Nelson owner, especially if you set your rosters
early in the summer.
For as prolific a passing attack as Green Bay possess, their tight
end position adds nearly nothing to the equation. Andrew
Quarless and Rodgers combined for a 49-548-5 line in 2014.
Those numbers barely qualify as a TE2 in fantasy football. Quarless,
the five-year vet has never been more than a blocker and sometimes
red zone target during his career. Rodgers, the bigger, more athletic
of the two, seems to have the physical tools to be a factor, but
is just way too low on the totem pole at the moment to be considered
a fantasy asset. If I was grasping at straws, and hoping for a
hidden gem in a 14-16 team league, I’d take a flyer on the
athletic upside of Rodgers, but this passing attack is funneled
through the receivers and backs, leaving nothing but mere scraps
for the tight ends.
