Since Todd Haley’s hiring as offensive coordinator in 2012,
Ben Roethlisberger has blossomed into a bona fide QB1, but there
is a good bet that when he went bonkers with a 50-point game in
Week 8 last year he was on your fantasy bench. Did you then curse
your luck, pass it off as a statistical aberration and have him
on your bench the very next week when he threw another 6 touchdown
passes? (let’s hope I’m not the only one!). After watching
the Steelers offense shift to a pass oriented mentality since Haley’s
arrival, I’ve been targeting Roethlisberger as my QB2 for
several seasons now. After his No.5 overall finish in 2014, I think
the value days are over.
With career highs in attempts (608), yards (4,952), touchdowns (32)
and completion percentage (67.1), Roethlisberger is taking his game
to the fantasy stratosphere. With two of the league’s elite playmakers
at his disposal in Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger
not only has the weapons, but also the perfect situation to repeat,
or even improve upon his fantastic season. With a pass offense built
around his talents, and a defense that hasn’t significantly improved
this offseason, look for Big Ben’s pass attempts to again approach
600. Despite the projected workload and production, Roethlisberger
doesn’t come without risks. The AFC south defenses, especially Cleveland
and Jacksonville, should be much improved, and as a playoff team,
the Steeler’s overall schedule will be tougher. Roethlisberger will
also be without Bell for three games to start the season, which
is a huge blow to the offensive game plan. Either way you slice
it, the Steelers are going to have to throw to win games, and that
means Ben has a chance to stay in the top-5 conversation. I would
be thrilled to sit back and take him as my QB1 after the first tier
studs come off the board.
Much has been said and written about the physical transformation
Le’Veon Bell underwent between his rookie season in 2013 and
his dynamic sophomore campaign last year. He went from one of the
league’s biggest plodders (3.5 yards-per-carry in 2013), to
a forceful, patient, home-run capable back that ran for a strong
4.7 yards-per-carry in 2014. The thing is, Bell just didn’t
improve drastically on the ground, he wound up being the second
leading receiver on the team with 83 receptions, and was second
in the entire NFL with a total of 373 touches (yards + carries).
Throw in 11 total touchdowns (he only had one rushing score going
into Week 11), and you have the making of an absolutely elite fantasy
season in any format. With his dual threat capabilities, he was
one of the best weekly bets for production, as he only had one game
all year where he scored single-digit fantasy points. So is the
23-year old ready to repeat his fantasy magic?
It certainly won’t be easy as he’s set to miss the first
three games of the season due to suspension. That is a big factor
fantasy owners drafting at the top of the first round will have
to think about when they consider Bell. Three games is nearly the
quarter of the season, and owners drafting Bell will need to add
extra talent at the running back position to get through the first
few weeks. But for the long haul, I actually think the missed games
could help Bell’s overall production. Taking a quick look
at Week’s 15-17, it seems the season’s workload may
have got to him. He averaged 2.4, 3.5, and 2.5 yards-per-carry in
those final three games, while suffering a significant knee sprain
that cost him the Wild Card game. I’m inclined to think that
Bell, could, and should be fresher down the stretch in 2015. Any
missed games are surely going to impact his final numbers, but not
enough to scare me away from Bell’s high weekly floor. There
is enough room for Bell to improve on his redzone numbers, and with
little on the bench behind him, he should see the field plenty when
he returns. Grab a runner earlier in your draft to get your through
the first few games and don’t be afraid to rely on Bell as
your RB1.
After coming in just above Kerwynn Williams and Justin Jusczczyk
in the final 2014 scoring rankings, DeAngelo Williams is lucky to
still have a home in the NFL. Frankly, the only reason he has fantasy
relevance is the fact that he could be starting for the Steelers
during the first three games of the season while Le’Veon Bell
serves his suspension. Coming off an injury riddled 2014 campaign,
it’s very hard to say how much Williams has left in the tank
at 32 years old. He was all but phased out of the offense late last
season in Carolina when he was healthy, finishing with a career
low 63 carries. Despite having the opportunity to see the majority
of touches in Bell’s absence, the Steelers have brutal match-ups
with the Patriots, 49ers, and Rams during Weeks 1-3. Williams might
get some sniffs from Bell owners looking to protect themselves,
but other than that, Williams will likely be a mainstay in your
league’s free agent pool.
Pound for pound the best receiver in the game, Antonio Brown optimizes
what it means to be an elite fantasy receiver. Blessed with outlandish
quickness and speed, Brown might stand at only 5’10’’, but he plays
like a giant. 2014’s No.1 receiver was a dynmo, finishing with an
NFL high 129 receptions (18 more than No.2 Demaryius Thomas) to
go along with 13 touchdowns. Prized by fantasy owners for such a
high weekly ceiling (he has an active 32-game streak of at least
5 catches and 50 yards in a game), Brown is simply one of the top-3
fantasy receivers no matter the format. He will again be the focal
point of the Steeler’s passing game, and while his ridiculous 33
targets in the redzone is sure to drop with the development of 6’5’’
Martavis Bryant, Brown is capable of scoring from any part of the
field. Look for a slight downtick in overall numbers if some of
his younger counterparts earn the trust of Ben Roethlisberger and
the coaching staff, but without a doubt Brown belongs at very near
the top of the WR1 rankings.
Mothballed by the Steelers for the first six weeks of the 2014 season,
Martavis Bryant was nowhere to be found in the fantasy world. But
Bryant quickly made a name for himself starting in Week 7, as he
went on to score six touchdowns over his first four NFL games. Following
those first few games, Bryant returned to earth, as it was clear
his role on the Pittsburgh offense was only as a deep threat, as
he averaged just 4.8 targets a game. When he didn’t beat the
defense for a long bomb, he probably bombed a few fantasy quads
with four scoring games under 5 fantasy points. While Bryant was
a boom-bust WR3/4 for most of the second half of the season, he
has a legitimate chance to take a step forward in 2015.
With a full offseason to refine his route running, Bryant has fully
cemented his place on the outside opposite Antonino Brown. Starting
from Week 1, and with an expanded role, Bryant can, and should advance
past the “deep threat only stage”, making him a strong
bet to double his 26 receptions from a year ago. The touchdown opportunities
will be there as his 6’5’’ frame oozes with redzone
scoring potential, and he’ll enjoy an up-tempo, high volume
passing attack. Bryant has serious break-out potential and makes
for amazing value as a WR3, as he could approach WR2 numbers by
seasons end.
Wheaton was the young Steeler receiver that drove the hype machine
last offseason. He started off 2014 with a bang, compiling a 6-97
line in the opener. But Wheaton never approached those numbers again
and eventually was left in the dust by the break-out of Martavis
Bryant. It’s clear from OTAs this season that the Steelers view
Wheaton as strictly a slot receiver, allowing Brown and Bryant to
man the outsides and soak up the medium and long range targets.
With running back Le’Veon Bell, and tight end Heath Miller carrying
the routes close to the line of scrimmage, Wheaton is going to be
left with a very supplemental role in 2015, and will struggle to
be anything more than fringe roster fantasy receiver.
TE Heath
Miller (2014 TE Rank – No.12, 5.9 FPts/G)
Two years removed from his ACL injury, Miller showed he has enough
left in the tank to be a fantasy asset, as he finished as a fringe
TE1 in most fantasy leagues. He flashed some of the crafty athleticism
and solid fundamentals of yesteryear as he had monster games in
Weeks 4, 8, and 13. The problem is these three games made up over
36% of his season’s yardage totals. Despite being one of Big
Ben’s favorite targets, there were more than a few games he
was a clear afterthought in the game plan. But while his physical
skills may have diminished, Miller is still the uncontested starting
tight end. Pittsburgh did add mammoth 6’7’’ Jesse
James from Penn State in the fifth round, but that won’t do
much to cut into Millers playing time this season. Look for Miller
to provide much more value to the Steelers offense with redzone
and third down consistency, but with a chance at another 90+ targets,
Miller should retain just enough value to provide fantasy owners
with a low ceiling TE1 option.
