From a scheme, coaching, and supporting
cast standpoint, Osweiler is in a great position to succeed.
In the real world there is a very small degree of separation between
a Bronco and a Texan. In the NFL, that degree is equally as small
after Brock Osweiler spurned Denver to join Houston. We can debate
the merits of giving a player $72 million dollars based on only
seven games, but we are here to analyze the fantasy impact Osweiler’s
arrival in Houston will have on the 2016 season.
Because we don’t have much statistical information or game
tape to go on, let’s first take a look at the Texans supporting
cast, as that goes a long way to determining a quarterback’s
fantasy worth (hi Ryan Fitzpatrick). Houston boasts perhaps two
of the youngest, most explosive skill position playmakers in receiver
DeAndre Hopkins and newly signed running back Lamar Miller. Both
Hopkins and Miller possess the ability to turn short gains into
long gains, and having players that can get you a few free ones
will benefit Oswieler as he transitions into this offense. Speaking
of offense, Brock will not only benefit from the talent around him,
but the pace at which they play. In two years under head coach Bill
O’Brien, the Texans have finished 9th (2014) and 1st (2015)
in plays per game. It’s clear O’Brien likes to play
at a brisk pace, something that also leads to a good chunk of pass
attempts (Houston finished 10th in that category in 2015). Speaking
of O’Brien, Osweiler gets access to one of the league’s
better quarterback gurus. From his stints in New England with Tom
Brady, to Penn State and Christian Hackenberg, O’Brien has
built a reputation as a quarterback friendly coach. Heck, he even
got Brian Hoyer to look competent at times during their 2015 playoff
run.
Although the wheels came off the Hoyer bandwagon in the playoffs,
he still managed a strong 2,606-19-7 line in only 11 games, putting
up eight 18.5-plus fantasy point games during the year. Osweiler
possess more mobility and a stronger arm than Hoyer and assuming
he can adjust to the more complex pass offensive scheme of the Texans,
he should easily exceed Hoyer’s numbers.
So from a scheme, coaching, and support cast standpoint, Osweiler
is in a great position to succeed. But does that also translate
into fantasy success? Yes and No. Brock is still a young quarterback
transitioning into a new offensive system. He’s got the pressure
of a large contract, and might press at times because he’s
expected to be much more than the caretaker he was in Denver. I
actually think Osweiler will have some fantasy value, especially
if you grab him late in the draft as your QB2. He’s got upside
in this offense, and could put up some strong games later in the
year when he finds his comfort zone. There are a whole host of young,
impressive quarterbacks in the AFC South who could be relevant fantasy
assets in 2016, and Osweiler could be another.
