One of the least relevant fantasy football battles comes to us
from the great state of Ohio. Unless you think the Cleveland Cavalier
magic will rub off on the 2016 Browns, the winner of the quarterback
battle in Cleveland shouldn’t make a lick of difference to fantasy
owners. Griffin III, the former Washington Redskin savior was
banished by his former team last year after he apparently forgot
how to play any facet of the quarterback position. Snatched up
by an equally desperate Browns team, Griffin enters the off-season
program atop the depth chart. Whether he stays there remains to
be seen. OTA reports from May and June have been less than glowing,
and with veteran McCown ready to take over, Griffin has a mighty
short leash going into training camp.
Griffin, while offering tremendous physical gifts, lacks something
between the ears to be great again. A hallow shell of his former
self, it will take an absolute miracle from new head coach Hue
Jackson to coax production out of Griffin again. Cleveland’s quarterback
of the future is wandering around a college campus right now,
so from a fantasy perspective, do yourself a favor and look away
from this train wreck.
McCown is seemingly the anti-RGIII. Quiet and unassuming, the
journeyman quarterback entering his 13th season has seen plenty
of ups and downs in his career. When healthy last year, McCown
was pretty darn effective. He had some tremendous early season
games, namely a three-game stretch during Weeks 3, 4 and 5 where
he averaged 384 yards and 2 touchdowns a game. The numbers are
even more impressive when you consider the receiving talent he
was throwing to. Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge could very
well have been names of servers at the local Applebee’s for anyone
outside of Cleveland was concerned, but for a few games in 2015
McCown gave this offense and team a spark they lacked for most
of their morbid season. As much of a gamer as McCown is, he just
cannot stay healthy and at 37 doesn’t offer anything to Cleveland’s
future, and make no mistake, this team is a long way away from
being a contender.
Earlier this offseason coach Hue Jackson said his new tandem of
running backs was the best he’s seen in a while. But I’ve learned
after years of following football that actions say more than words
and the fact Cleveland failed to bring in anyone to challenge
him, means Isaiah Crowell still has a chance to be this team’s
primary ball carrier in 2016. Still developing as a runner after
dominating at a small school for much of his college career, Crowell
battled ball control and consistency issues for much of 2015.
Despite an impressive rookie year that saw him rack up 8 touchdowns
on only 148 carries, Crowell and the entire Cleveland offense
took a step back last year. Because most games were blowouts early,
the Browns were forced to abandon the run frequently, meaning
Crowell wasn’t on the field for passing downs and they could never
feed him the ball. Oddly enough, in the one 20-carry game he got
all of last year, Crowell also had his best game, a 20-145-2 game
vs. the 49ers in Week 14. Crowell has elite physical gifts, but
so do lots of other guys. How he improves on the nuances of the
position will determine how much trust coach Jackson has in him.
Crowell is very much like Jeremy Hill, the back Jackson left behind
in Cincinnati. Look for the Browns to lean heavily on the run
game, and if they can keep most games at least competitive, Crowell
should have a chance to improve his numbers. But running backs
on bad teams, especially ones that don’t catch many passes are
inherently risky, so don’t overdraft Crowell.
Update 7/14/16:Crowell's
social media incident has caused his average draft position to
tumble a good two rounds.
RB Duke
Johnson (2015 RB Rank - No.37, 6.5 FPts/G)
Johnson, 2015’s third-round pick from Miami was heralded for his
NFL-ready receiving game, and he came as advertised. After not
catching a pass in the first two games, Johnson went on to haul
in 61 receptions for 561 yards and 2 scores in the other 14. The
Browns version of Gio Bernard, Johnson figures to have an even
bigger impact in 2016. With the Browns going decidedly run focused,
Johnson has a chance to improve on his 104 attempts from a year
ago. His 3.6 yard per carry average doesn’t inspire confidence,
but the new coaching staff believes Johnson is more than an 3rd
down back, and should Isaiah Crowell falter, Johnson could easily
step in to absorb more carries. Where Johnson will have his most
value (potentially more than his backfield mate Crowell) will
be in PPR leagues. With the receiving corps consisting of Gary
Barnidge, a rookie, and a smattering of other mediocre talent,
Johnson could line up in the slot from time to time, something
he did occasionally even last year. I think 180 touches is the
absolute floor for Johnson, making him a very good value at his
preseason average draft position. If you think the Browns will
be as bad as everyone else, there is certainly a good argument
to be made that Johnson possesses the higher upside in this backfield
tandem.
One of four receivers drafted in the 2016 draft by the Browns,
Coleman joins his fellow rookies, a converted quarterback, a career
role player and a perennially suspended superstar to make up the
bulk of the Browns passing attack. Athletically gifted, but raw
coming out of a spread based offense at Baylor, Coleman will be
tasked with being a focal point of the offense. Undersized at
5’11, but possessing elite short area quickness, Coleman will
benefit from the offensive scheme of Jackson. There will be no
shortage of targets coming Coleman’s way, with Barnidge being
the only other option out wide. With opportunities comes production,
and Coleman has a chance to catch 60-plus passes this year, and
that could give him WR3/4 value. He will be the first (and maybe
only) Cleveland receiver rostered in fantasy this year.
Some think Pryor, the converted quarterback, is a good bet to
make the final roster based on athletic potential alone. An experiment
still in progress, Pryor offers the talent strapped Browns some
flash but if it weren’t for such a roster devoid of pass catching
talent, Pryor’s Browns career would likely be over. I wouldn’t
be shocked if Pryor were cut in camp. He’s 27 and still trying
to learn a new position, and unless he proves to be a very quick
study, is a long-shot to earn significant playing time. That prospect
seems to throw a bucket of ice water on his already tepid fantasy
prospects.
At this time last year, only the fiercest of football fans could
tell you what team Barnidge played for. If you had the foresight
to draft or pick Barnidge up before the season, kudos to you,
because his elite top-3 finish had to win you something. The eighth-
year tight end literally came out of NOWHERE in 2015 to post some
eye-popping numbers. His 79-1043-9 line for the season nearly
TRIPLED his previous career TOTAL stats. Rarely does a player
come along and have the type of season Barnidge had last year,
especially at the grizzled age of 30. So what gives? Did the previous
coaching regimes fail to recognize the talent of Barnidge? Was
2015 an amalgamation of circumstances never to be repeated? Or
does Barnidge possess the talent and opportunity to repeat as
top-5 tight end in 2016? This is a tremendously important question
going into the fantasy season. Honestly, not much changes for
Barnidge’s situation this year. He’s still the No.1 option in
the passing game, his quarterback play really can’t get worse
than it was last year, and despite offseason hernia surgery, he
should be healthy for camp. I have to think there will be a statistical
regression, simply based on defensive game plan. While he came
out white hot to start the year (5 of his 9 touchdowns, and his
three 100-yard games came in Weeks 1-7), he slowed up some in
the second half of the year as teams recognized his value to the
offense. With no receiver commanding double teams, defenses can
box Barnidge in with safeties and linebackers, limiting his value
between the 20’s. He still has tremendous value in the red zone,
and the touchdown potential alone should help him retain mid-tier
TE1 value.
