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Colby Cavaliere | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

2016 Player Outlooks: Green Bay Packers
8/8/16

 

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers: You know you're a great QB when your "off year" includes a 31:8 TD-to-INT ratio.


QB Aaron Rodgers
(2015 QB Rank - No.12, 22.2 FPts/G)

I guess the bar has been set pretty high when 3,800 yards passing and 31 touchdowns is a down season, but that’s life for what has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks over the last half dozen seasons. Even though he was able to win a playoff game on the road, and nearly came up with a miracle win over the Cardinals, Rodgers’ play slumped noticeably, enough so that his end of year fantasy rank tumbled out of the top 10. He had only three 300-yard games in 2015 (compared to 9 in 2014) and only three 3-plus touchdown games (yup, 9 of those in 2014 too). So while his season numbers look decent, most of the fantasy season he was an uninspiring starting quarterback, but someone you wouldn’t dare sit. Owners with enough discipline or a deep bench may have had the guts to sit him, especially in the fantasy playoffs when he was particularly dreadful, but most were forced to ride it out.

But enough about 2015, it’s a fresh new year of possibilities, and Rodgers is back hungry and healthy, and again being considered in the top 2 at his position. So what changes in Green Bay bring about such a positive outlook? A few things. The anticipated return of Jordy Nelson, the development of young receivers, and the return of Mike McCarthy to play-calling duties. Lot’s of blame has been placed on the shoulders of Rodgers for last year’s offensive showing, but one must understand the importance of timing and continuity of the Green Bay offense. Nelson went down late in the preseason, the young receivers failed to develop as fast as was required, and the offensive line was a sieve. Randall Cobb couldn’t get open with extra defensive attention, and the play-calling failed to compensate. I anticipate that Green Bay learned a lot from their struggles, and the players and coaching staff are too good to have it happen again. If Nelson even approaches his pre-injury form, and the running game can be a threat, Rodgers should be right back at the top, and a surefire QB1 as one of the first selected.

RB Eddie Lacy
(2015 RB Rank - No.24 8.3 FPts/G)

Listen, the wheels came off this Green Bay offense in all phases of the game in 2015. Anyone who invested heavily in Green Bay players last year probably didn’t fare very well, and that certainly applies to Lacy owners. Lacy, whose first two years in the league put him on an impressive trajectory, completely and utterly stunk in his third season. The Alabama back packed on weight, looked slow, was benched for stretches of the season, and finished as a meek RB2 despite finishing in the top-10 his first two years in the league. He lost nearly all of the passing game work, catching only half as many (20) than Starks (43). The combination of being a dual threat, and a goal line back previously gave Lacy such a high floor. Scoring only three touchdowns on the ground, and catching only 20 more passes than me wasn’t a recipe for success. But can Lacy rebound and not only help this Green Bay offense, but his fantasy owners as well?

The answer is a resounding “maybe”. Running backs, more than any other position in football, crash and burn with alarming frequency. Injuries take their toll, and a guy who runs with a punishing style like Lacy needs to stay in top physical form. All indications are Lacy is significantly trimmed up, but how long with that last? I also think it’s telling the normally financially stingy Packers resigned Starks for a few million a year, a number that tells me he’s more than a caddy for Lacy. I honestly think the Packers lost some faith in their young runner, and he’s going to have to work hard to get it back. There is some risk here for a guy coming off a very poor season, but he’s got top-5 talent, and if this offense gets back on track, Lacy could return some tremendous value. Don’t reach for him, but if falls in your lap, take the chance, as most of the top running backs come with serious question marks anyway.

RB James Starks
(2015 RB Rank – No.34 8.1 FPts/G)

On the roster bubble just a short time ago, Starks signed a fresh two-year contract this off-season, mainly because he provided the Packer’s run and pass game with a spark when Eddie Lacy bogged down. Saying Starks had a career year in 2015 isn’t hyperbole. He finished with a career high in carries (148), yards (601), touchdowns (5), receptions (43) and receiving yards (392). When it was all said and done, he ended up scoring more fantasy points than Lacy! A big part of his success was based on Lacy’s lack of it, and Starks’s ability to stay healthy, as he played in a full 16 games for the first time in his career. I do anticipate more of a committee than Green Bay has had in the past, but nothing to give Starks standalone fantasy value. He’ll again be most valuable as a must have handcuff for Lacy owners, capable of being an RB2 should he see extensive playing time.

WR Jordy Nelson
(2015 WR Rank – N/A)

12 months and one ACL tear ago Jordy Nelson was a top-2 fantasy receiver. Able to score from anywhere on the field, Nelson commanded double teams, and help over the top. His loss was a tremendous blow to the Green Bay offense, and put his career at age 31 at a crossroads. Despite the nature of their position, receivers don’t suffer ACL tears as frequently as other positions. The most recent example we have is Jeremy Maclin, who tore his ACL in 2013. He returned a year late and had a career year, but he was also six years younger than Nelson. On the other end of the spectrum is Reggie Wayne, who tore his ACL in 2013 at the age of 34. He returned the next season, but was a shell of his former self, and retired. Nelson is nearly 12 months removed from the injury, and until the start of camp has had a pristine rehab. He’s yet to practice because of “minor” knee tendonitis, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Nelson as my WR1 unless he gets in some quality reps with his team prior to Week 1. If this “minor” injury lingers more than a few weeks, proceed with extreme caution, otherwise draft with value and tremendous upside in mind.

WR Randall Cobb

(2015 WR Rank - No.31, 7.7 FPts/G)

In the far corners of Green Bay, Wisconsin there are still “Missing” posters with Randall Cobb’s face on them. Counted on in the wake of Jordy Nelson’s season ending knee injury, Cobb all but disappeared for the Packer offense last year. Despite two MORE targets than in 2014, Cobb’s numbers fell precipitously in 2015. He had 400 fewer yards, and 6 fewer touchdowns, and saw his catch percentage drop by a large margin as well. He struggled to get open, and failed to make plays when he did catch the ball. Over the 2nd half of the season he went over 80 yards just once and scored only 2 touchdowns, basically making him unstartable except in the deepest of leagues. The No.1 receiver in Green Bay finishing outside the top 25 sounds like blasphemy, but it shows just how dysfunctional this offense was last year. He’s healthy, motived, and primed to bounce back with the rest of his Green Bay teammates. With Nelson back to attract attention outside, Cobb can work back in the slot where he can use his quickness most effectively. There’s a good chance that his monster 2014 will go down as his career year, but I feel good enough about this offense to see Cobb as an asset as a WR2.

WR Davante Adams
(2015 WR Rank – No.83, 4.5 FPts/G)

WR Jeff Janis
(2015 WR Rank – N/A)

WR Jared Abbrederis
(2015 WR Rank – N/A)

The No.3 receiver in Green Bay is among the few in the league worth monitoring from a fantasy perspective. This offense has (typically) been able to support a third receiver, and street free agent James Jones was able to score 8 touchdowns last year, so we at least have to take a look at Adams, Janis, and Abbrederis. Adams, who was tagged as a breakout player this time last season, crashed and burned, catching only 50 passes and scoring only 1 touchdown. He failed miserably in his bid to lighten the loss of Nelson, and needs to work long and hard to get back into the good graces of his quarterback. He has the draft pedigree over Janis and Abbrederis, but his consistency is lacking. Abbrederis, the second-year player from Wisconsin is solid, but injuries have played a big part in his development and path to more playing time. Janis remains this team’s fantasy enigma. Oozing with off the charts physical ability and athleticism, as witnessed in the Divisional round playoff game last year, he can’t seem to bring his mental game up to task, and remains a work in progress. None of this trio seems worthy of a pick to me, mainly because I feel like Green Bay will go with a committee at the 3rd and 4th receiver positions. They also signed Jared Cook, a move tight end who figures to fill a receiving role as well. If Janis is somehow able to win the job outright he makes for the biggest upside pickup, but for now, take a wait and see approach, and hope to snipe one of these guys off the waiver wire in season.

TE Richard Rodgers
(2015 TE Rank No.9, 6.3 FPts/G)

TE Jared Cook
(2015 TE Rank No.34, 3.0 FPts/G)

Buoyed by an 8-touchdown season, the athletically challenged Rodgers finished as a top-10 tight end. With the loss of Nelson, Rodgers became the go-to target in the red zone, but was a basic non-factor everywhere else, topping 60 yards only once (Week 13), thanks to the game winning Hail Mary versus Detroit. Green Bay made upgrading on Rodgers a priority, but wound up with annual fantasy tease Jared Cook as the contender. Cook has been sidelined all off-season with foot surgery, so he’s had little opportunity to immerse himself in the offense. These two will probably find a way to split 8-10 touchdowns, and about 800 yards. Cook is by far the better receiver, and is finally playing with a good quarterback, so if I had to take a flyer on a TE2, he would be my bet.