I guess the bar has been set pretty high when 3,800 yards passing
and 31 touchdowns is a down season, but that’s life for what
has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks over the last
half dozen seasons. Even though he was able to win a playoff game
on the road, and nearly came up with a miracle win over the Cardinals,
Rodgers’ play slumped noticeably, enough so that his end of
year fantasy rank tumbled out of the top 10. He had only three 300-yard
games in 2015 (compared to 9 in 2014) and only three 3-plus touchdown
games (yup, 9 of those in 2014 too). So while his season numbers
look decent, most of the fantasy season he was an uninspiring starting
quarterback, but someone you wouldn’t dare sit. Owners with
enough discipline or a deep bench may have had the guts to sit him,
especially in the fantasy playoffs when he was particularly dreadful,
but most were forced to ride it out.
But enough about 2015, it’s a fresh new year of possibilities, and
Rodgers is back hungry and healthy, and again being considered in
the top 2 at his position. So what changes in Green Bay bring about
such a positive outlook? A few things. The anticipated return of
Jordy Nelson, the development of young receivers, and the return
of Mike McCarthy to play-calling duties. Lot’s of blame has been
placed on the shoulders of Rodgers for last year’s offensive showing,
but one must understand the importance of timing and continuity
of the Green Bay offense. Nelson went down late in the preseason,
the young receivers failed to develop as fast as was required, and
the offensive line was a sieve. Randall Cobb couldn’t get open with
extra defensive attention, and the play-calling failed to compensate.
I anticipate that Green Bay learned a lot from their struggles,
and the players and coaching staff are too good to have it happen
again. If Nelson even approaches his pre-injury form, and the running
game can be a threat, Rodgers should be right back at the top, and
a surefire QB1 as one of the first selected.
Listen, the wheels came off this Green Bay offense in all phases
of the game in 2015. Anyone who invested heavily in Green Bay players
last year probably didn’t fare very well, and that certainly
applies to Lacy owners. Lacy, whose first two years in the league
put him on an impressive trajectory, completely and utterly stunk
in his third season. The Alabama back packed on weight, looked slow,
was benched for stretches of the season, and finished as a meek
RB2 despite finishing in the top-10 his first two years in the league.
He lost nearly all of the passing game work, catching only half
as many (20) than Starks (43). The combination of being a dual threat,
and a goal line back previously gave Lacy such a high floor. Scoring
only three touchdowns on the ground, and catching only 20 more passes
than me wasn’t a recipe for success. But can Lacy rebound
and not only help this Green Bay offense, but his fantasy owners
as well?
The answer is a resounding “maybe”. Running backs, more
than any other position in football, crash and burn with alarming
frequency. Injuries take their toll, and a guy who runs with a punishing
style like Lacy needs to stay in top physical form. All indications
are Lacy is significantly trimmed up, but how long with that last?
I also think it’s telling the normally financially stingy
Packers resigned Starks for a few million a year, a number that
tells me he’s more than a caddy for Lacy. I honestly think
the Packers lost some faith in their young runner, and he’s
going to have to work hard to get it back. There is some risk here
for a guy coming off a very poor season, but he’s got top-5
talent, and if this offense gets back on track, Lacy could return
some tremendous value. Don’t reach for him, but if falls in
your lap, take the chance, as most of the top running backs come
with serious question marks anyway.
On the roster bubble just a short time ago, Starks signed a fresh
two-year contract this off-season, mainly because he provided the
Packer’s run and pass game with a spark when Eddie Lacy bogged
down. Saying Starks had a career year in 2015 isn’t hyperbole.
He finished with a career high in carries (148), yards (601), touchdowns
(5), receptions (43) and receiving yards (392). When it was all
said and done, he ended up scoring more fantasy points than Lacy!
A big part of his success was based on Lacy’s lack of it,
and Starks’s ability to stay healthy, as he played in a full
16 games for the first time in his career. I do anticipate more
of a committee than Green Bay has had in the past, but nothing to
give Starks standalone fantasy value. He’ll again be most
valuable as a must have handcuff for Lacy owners, capable of being
an RB2 should he see extensive playing time.
12 months and one ACL tear ago Jordy Nelson was a top-2 fantasy
receiver. Able to score from anywhere on the field, Nelson commanded
double teams, and help over the top. His loss was a tremendous blow
to the Green Bay offense, and put his career at age 31 at a crossroads.
Despite the nature of their position, receivers don’t suffer
ACL tears as frequently as other positions. The most recent example
we have is Jeremy Maclin, who tore his ACL in 2013. He returned
a year late and had a career year, but he was also six years younger
than Nelson. On the other end of the spectrum is Reggie Wayne, who
tore his ACL in 2013 at the age of 34. He returned the next season,
but was a shell of his former self, and retired. Nelson is nearly
12 months removed from the injury, and until the start of camp has
had a pristine rehab. He’s yet to practice because of “minor”
knee tendonitis, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Nelson
as my WR1 unless he gets in some quality reps with his team prior
to Week 1. If this “minor” injury lingers more than
a few weeks, proceed with extreme caution, otherwise draft with
value and tremendous upside in mind.
WR Randall
Cobb (2015 WR Rank - No.31, 7.7 FPts/G)
In the far corners of Green Bay, Wisconsin there are still “Missing”
posters with Randall Cobb’s face on them. Counted on in the
wake of Jordy Nelson’s season ending knee injury, Cobb all
but disappeared for the Packer offense last year. Despite two MORE
targets than in 2014, Cobb’s numbers fell precipitously in
2015. He had 400 fewer yards, and 6 fewer touchdowns, and saw his
catch percentage drop by a large margin as well. He struggled to
get open, and failed to make plays when he did catch the ball. Over
the 2nd half of the season he went over 80 yards just once and scored
only 2 touchdowns, basically making him unstartable except in the
deepest of leagues. The No.1 receiver in Green Bay finishing outside
the top 25 sounds like blasphemy, but it shows just how dysfunctional
this offense was last year. He’s healthy, motived, and primed
to bounce back with the rest of his Green Bay teammates. With Nelson
back to attract attention outside, Cobb can work back in the slot
where he can use his quickness most effectively. There’s a
good chance that his monster 2014 will go down as his career year,
but I feel good enough about this offense to see Cobb as an asset
as a WR2.
The No.3 receiver in Green Bay is among the few in the league worth
monitoring from a fantasy perspective. This offense has (typically)
been able to support a third receiver, and street free agent James
Jones was able to score 8 touchdowns last year, so we at least have
to take a look at Adams, Janis, and Abbrederis. Adams, who was tagged
as a breakout player this time last season, crashed and burned,
catching only 50 passes and scoring only 1 touchdown. He failed
miserably in his bid to lighten the loss of Nelson, and needs to
work long and hard to get back into the good graces of his quarterback.
He has the draft pedigree over Janis and Abbrederis, but his consistency
is lacking. Abbrederis, the second-year player from Wisconsin is
solid, but injuries have played a big part in his development and
path to more playing time. Janis remains this team’s fantasy enigma.
Oozing with off the charts physical ability and athleticism, as
witnessed in the Divisional round playoff game last year, he can’t
seem to bring his mental game up to task, and remains a work in
progress. None of this trio seems worthy of a pick to me, mainly
because I feel like Green Bay will go with a committee at the 3rd
and 4th receiver positions. They also signed Jared Cook, a move
tight end who figures to fill a receiving role as well. If Janis
is somehow able to win the job outright he makes for the biggest
upside pickup, but for now, take a wait and see approach, and hope
to snipe one of these guys off the waiver wire in season.
Buoyed by an 8-touchdown season, the athletically challenged Rodgers
finished as a top-10 tight end. With the loss of Nelson, Rodgers
became the go-to target in the red zone, but was a basic non-factor
everywhere else, topping 60 yards only once (Week 13), thanks to
the game winning Hail Mary versus Detroit. Green Bay made upgrading
on Rodgers a priority, but wound up with annual fantasy tease Jared
Cook as the contender. Cook has been sidelined all off-season with
foot surgery, so he’s had little opportunity to immerse himself
in the offense. These two will probably find a way to split 8-10
touchdowns, and about 800 yards. Cook is by far the better receiver,
and is finally playing with a good quarterback, so if I had to take
a flyer on a TE2, he would be my bet.
