It’s almost as if Bridgewater’s 2014 and 2015 season
looked in the mirror, because it many ways they’re nearly
statistically identical. He finished as the No.22 overall QB in
2014 and the 23rd overall in 2015. He’s thrown for 14 touchdowns
in each of his first two seasons, and his passing yardage totals
have been within 300 yards of each other. Completion percentage?
You guessed it, less than 1% difference. Just for fun, his rushing
total difference was only 17 yards. Other than statistical oddities,
why bring up theses correlations? Because it gives us a great basis
for evaluating his 2016 value.
The way I see it, as long as No.28 is in the backfield and running
like a wild horse that just escaped from the stable, Bridgewater
is going to be nothing more than a game manager. The conservative
style fits not only head coach Mike Zimmer, but it was a successful
enough formula to get the Vikings a division title, and one missed
kick from a deep playoff run. Bridgewater lacks the big arm that
gives the Norm Turner offense it’s teeth, and the pass protection,
while improved with some offseason additions, was one of the league’s
worst last year. The addition of rookie Laquon Treadwell will help,
as he provides a big body, and sturdy possession receiver. But there
just isn’t higher than a 20 touchdown ceiling in this offensive
scheme. Bridgewater is a fine NFL player, and will fill the role
for the Vikings, but in fantasy he sits as an uninspiring, low-end
QB2.
Workhorse: Even at 31 years of age, there's
no reason for a serious regression from Adrian Peterson.
Alien from another galaxy, ancient Greek god, or just an ageless
wonder on par with Betty White (or the Egyptian pyramids maybe),
Peterson once again displayed his trademark bullish running style
as he led the NFL in rushing in his return from season long exile.
The year off left AP fresh and ready to run, and boy did he! His
looked like his vintage self, even at the ripe old age of 31, as
he put up one of the best statistical seasons of his career. The
1,485 yards were the 3rd best of his career, and the 11 touchdowns
marked the eighth time he’s scored double digit touchdowns.
Even more impressive is that he finished 2nd overall in running
back scoring with only 30 catches and an uninspiring 222 yards receiving.
The reception total is about the only blemish on an otherwise remarkable
year. Peterson’s value could skyrocket if he could become
a true dual threat, but despite the press clippings about involving
him in the passing game more, I’m afraid it might not happen.
Peterson dropped only 1 of the 36 targets thrown his way in 2015,
but he’s had tremendous problems holding onto the ball, as
evidenced by a crippling fumble in the playoff loss to the Seahawks.
Despite spitting into the face of father time, it is still in the
Vikings best interest to limit his touches as much as possible to
keep him fresh. The Vikings offense has relied on short, safe throws,
and Peterson’s catches are mostly simple dump offs. Aside
from occasional screens, the Vikings running backs in general aren’t
called on often in the passing game. Keep this in mind in PPR leagues.
In standard leagues I see no reason for a serious regression from
AP. He looks as quick and strong as ever despite his punishing running
style. He should, and will be one of the first backs off the board.
As I suspected, McKinnon was nothing more than an infrequently used
caddy to Peterson in 2015. With Peterson back and better than ever,
McKinnon was relegated to mop up duty for most of the year. With
only 73 total touches on the season, McKinnon didn’t have
many opportunities to display his elite athleticism. Despite the
lack of meaningful involvement, there is reason to pay very close
attention to the third year back. First, his explosion is evident
by his 5.2 yards per carry average last season, besting his impressive
4.8 average as a rookie. Raw coming out of Georgia Southern, one
would figure that with some experience under his belt, his mental
game will start to catch up to his physical game. While he has little
to no standalone value in fantasy based on his projected usage,
I feel he is a MUST add handcuff for Peterson owners. His ability,
and offensive fit make him one of the few back-up running backs
than could be true difference makers in fantasy football, and well
worth an upside stash even for non-Peterson owners.
Not hitting the field until Week 4 wasn’t a problem for the
rookie Diggs, as he started his career with a blistering four-game
stretch that saw him compile 25 catches for 419 yards and a two
scores. But as quickly as he ascended to WR1 status, he crashed
back to earth in Week 9 and never amounted to more than a bench
stash the rest of the year. Despite the poor finish, Diggs a 5th
round rookie who wasn’t even a blip on the fantasy radar prior
to the season, finished with 52 catches on 84 targets, and became
the Vikings most reliable receiver. Rookie Laquon Treadwell replaces
the departed Mike Wallace, leaving Diggs as the most likely to lead
this team in targets again in 2016. Lacking elite measurables, Diggs
certainly looked plenty fast and athletic with the ball in his hands.
Without transcendent talent, Diggs was unable to overcome the increased
defensive attention during the later parts of the season, but I’m
confident Treadwell will command enough attention to free Diggs
up to make plays. The Vikings are going to remain run dependent,
but when they do throw, Diggs will be a big part of it. Look for
an uptick in numbers across the board, giving Diggs some sneaky
WR3 value with upside.
If you want size and physicality, Treadwell has it in spades. The
6’2’’ 220 pound receiver from Ole Miss was the
Vikings top pick in the 2016 draft this spring and put plenty of
impressive receptions on his game tape during his time in college.
Treadwell has drawn comparisons to a former Norv Turner favorite
in Hall of Famer Michael Irvin based on his size and ball skills.
But despite the praises being heaped on him so far, there are concerns
by scouts that he lacks the separation skills to be a big time NFL
receiver. He was able to use his size and jumping ability to outplay
college corners for the ball, but in the NFL that won’t be
nearly as easy. He needs to be quicker off the ball and do a better
job of gaining separation with technique, as he lacks elite speed
or quickness. Lucky for the Vikings, he fits what they want to do
very well, but I see this being a developmental year for the rookie.
The Vikings were 31st in the league in passing yardage per game
last season at 183 yards per game. I don’t see a reason those
numbers will jump significantly enough to give Treadwell much fantasy
value. Plenty of rookie receivers have surprised in recent years,
so he’s certainly worth a look as a possible early season
waiver add or late draft pick in deep leagues, but for now, I’m
taking a wait and see approach.
TE Kyle
Rudolph (2015 TE Rank – No.14, 5.0
FPts/G)
Fantasy owners have been patiently waiting for the encore to Rudolph’s
breakout 2012 season, where as a second year player he hauled in
53 catches and 9 touchdowns. A dream fit for Norv Turner’s
tight end friendly offense, Rudolph simply wasn’t able to
stay healthy in 2013 or 2014. The Notre Dame alum bounced back last
year to play all 16 games, but poor offensive line play made him
a blocker on a majority of the very infrequent pass plays that were
called. Rudolph finished just outside of TE1 range with a 49-495-5
line for the season. With the additions of free agents Alex Boone
and Andre Smith, Rudolph should have a chance to become more involved
in the passing game, especially at intermediate routes and in the
red zone. I do expect the Vikings to throw a bit more this season,
but their strong defense and dominant running game will still take
precedence over tossing the ball around. With a young tandem of
receivers in Diggs and Treadwell, Rudolph could carve out a niche
as a reliable target for Bridgewater, and improve his numbers enough
to be a legitimate TE1, even if his upside is capped.
