One of the more confusing off-seasons belongs to the Chicago Bears.
Most knew that it was time for the Jay Cutler era to end, but if
you pegged the Bears signing Mike Glennon to a huge deal, then giving
up a ton of draft stock to move up one spot to select Mitchell Trubisky,
I have a palm you can read.
Glennon comes to the Bears on what is essentially a one-year, $18-million
dollar deal. That’s middle of the road starting QB money,
but the problem is that doesn’t quite jibe with how this roster
is built. At some point after signing Glennon, the Bears either
had a change of heart, or fell so deeply in love with Trubisky they
couldn’t pass him up. So while the rookie from North Carolina
waits his turn and the Bears give the keys to Glennon, what can
we expect from a fantasy perspective? Frankly, not much. A few factors
are going to conspire to make Glennon an extremely fringe fantasy
asset.
First, the Chicago offense is predicated on the run game. Since
John Fox became head coach two years ago, the team has never been
higher than 22nd in pass attempts, so it’s highly unlikely
Glennon’s stats will be boosted by sheer volume. Next, Glennon
himself hasn’t seen meaningful snaps in nearly three years.
That season he went 1-6 as a starter and threw only ten touchdowns
compared to six interceptions. Sure, he had a quietly effective
rookie year (which is probably the only reason he got the big contract
he did), but that was many moons ago, and clearly Tampa didn’t
think he was the franchise quarterback because they drafted Jameis
Winston. Look, Glennon will probably turn out to be a fine backup
quarterback one day. He’s terribly limited athletically, and
basically someone whose best asset is not screwing things up. He
might have some value in a two-quarterback league, but he has such
a limited upside, that I don’t think he’s currently
roster material in standard fantasy leagues.
I’m going to make a crazy assumption that Jordan Howard won
a few fantasy titles last season. The 5th round rookie from Indiana
came out of nowhere to pile up 252 carries for 1,313 yards 6 touchdowns,
in essentially only 13 games, as he didn’t play Week 1 and
saw only 12 carries combined in Week 2 and 3. From Week 4 on, Howard
was one of fantasy’s most consistent running back plays, putting
up double digit points in all but two of his final thirteen games.
More impressive is that fact Howard did all of this on a team that
went 3-13, and rarely ever had 4th quarter leads to protect.
A deeper look shows Howard racked up these amazing numbers on a
fairly limited set of carries. He only reached 20 carries in four
games, as he averaged a silly 5.2 yards-per-carry, great numbers
for a runner that doesn’t possess elite speed or quickness.
What Howard does have is a relentless, one-cut running style that
jibes with the strong run blocking of the Chicago line. He fits
through tight spaces, finishes runs with gusto, and has the power
and vision to make his own yards when necessary.
So can Howard repeat the magic and be worthy of an early round selection
in 2017? In early drafts he’s being picked in the top-10 at
his position, a place I think is fair. Barring injury (which he
did have quite a few of his senior year in college), he should push
for 250 carries once again. 250 carries is nearly a shoe-in for
top-10 status, as only Frank Gore and Lamar Miller had 250 or more
carries last season and didn’t finish in that area. Howard’s
touchdown upside is going to be limited on a poor, conservative
offense, but has a little room to grow from last year’s total
of six.
What I don’t see improving greatly are his yards per carry average
and reception totals. With totally unproven quarterback options
and receivers who scare no one right now, 8 and 9-man fronts should
be the norm against Howard. Also consider the fact he led all running
backs with 8 dropped passes, and had only a 58% completion rate
on passes thrown his way. Compare that to a similar player in Melvin
Gordon who had a 72% rate, and you’ll see why Chicago went out and
added Benny Cunningham in free agency and the Darren Sproles-like
Tarik
Cohen in the draft. Cohen was a dynamo at North Carolina A&T
and offers the Bears a skillset that is unique to their roster.
Howard’s volume and skill-set are going to be enough to make
him a RB1, but you are going to have to pay a significantly higher
price this season to get that production. He’s going to be
a solid, reliable player, but asking him to meet or surpass his
2016 totals might be a stretch.
Honestly, there’s Jordan Howard and then everyone else. I
want to preface this section of the preview by stating it’s
likely that these guys are fighting for two roster spots. Langford
and Cunningham have the upper hand, as they both were hand-picked
by the current front office. Carey has mostly been a special teams
player during his career and offers very little upside as a runner.
Langford was the starter last season before going down, and at least
has some decent rookie year tape to fall back on. Cunningham was
brought in to be a reliable 3rd down back and that’s it. If
I had to make a guess, I’d say that if he sticks, Langford
falls in as the back-up runner. Should Howard go down for an extended
period, this situation would fall into a full blown committee attack,
so essentially there really isn’t a reliable handcuff on this
roster for fantasy owners. Let’s hope for Chicago’s
sake and yours, Howard plays all 16 games.
Meredith, the 3rd-year receiver
burst onto the scene last year to lead the Bears in receiving
after not seeing playing time until Week 3. As the No.2 on a slow
moving offense (30th in plays per game), Meredith’s usage
was sporadic and inconsistent, often times just serving as a deep
threat that was targeted only a few times a game.
The expectation is quite different in 2017. Meredith slides into
the No.1 receiver role for the Bears following the departure of
Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery was up and down the last two years due
to injuries, but he leaves behind 94 targets, and a few of those
should go toward Meredith. The former undrafted free agent showed
he could be more than a complementary player, as he tallied four
100-yard games, and had 6 or more receptions in five of his 14
games. From all accounts he was playing well during off-season
work before a thumb injury sidelined him. He should be healthy
for camp, but it’s never helpful for a young player to miss off-season
work, especially with a new quarterback coming in.
I have a sneaky feeling that Meredith could return some decent
value this season. He put up some impressive numbers on a bad
team that had street free agent level talents starting at quarterback.
Mike Glennon isn’t exactly Joe Montana, but does provide
an upgrade at the position. Meredith doesn’t exactly have
a laundry list of talent vying for targets behind him, so I expect
him to well surpass his total from last year. If White can at
least provide a reputable threat to attract some defensive attention,
and opposing defenses continue to stack the box to stop Jordan
Howard, Meredith could be a low end WR2 that you could steal for
a WR3 price.
WR Kevin
White (2016 WR Rank – No.132, 4.9 FPts/G)
I might as well copy and paste the blurb I had here last year.
Once again the potential of White wasn’t realized in 2016,
as the former 1st rounder missed a majority of the year after
suffering a devastating lower leg injury. The injury occurred
to the same leg that caused him to miss the 2015 season, and while
off-season reports have him healthy and ready to go, it's fair
to wonder just how much speed and agility he has left after missing
so much time.
It’s clear after his four-game stint last season that the
Bears desperately want a return on their investment in White.
He piled up 36 targets in those games, but unfortunately didn’t
do much with them. He caught just over half of them, and cashed
them in for a measly 187 yards.
The fact remains that no one really knows what White is capable
of. He was physically dynamic at West Virginia, but struggled
mentally in his first training camp prior to his initial injury.
If he has even lost a little because of the injuries, it’s
hard to imagine him making much of a fantasy splash. He’s
going to have plenty of opportunity to make plays with only uninspiring
veterans and a young undrafted free agent with him on the depth
chart, so for those reasons alone I’d be happy to take a
flier on him late in my draft as a very low risk, decent reward
option.
I’m only putting both Miller and Sims in one spot because
I believe one of them could be worth fantasy consideration this
season. Miller was having another resurgent season (47-486-4)
before breaking his foot in Week 10. His 7.3 FPts/G was good enough
for a near top 10 finish, and despite talk of his potential release,
the Bears have yet to do so. This leads me to believe his recovery
is going well and that they still have plans for the wayward pro.
Working counter to this plan is the signing of free agent Dion
Sims from the Dolphins and the pick of Adam Shaheen in the 2nd
round of the draft. Sims was underutilized with the Fins, but
offers better blocking and more athleticism than Miller and the
Bears didn’t give him $6-million a year to be a part-time
player. Shaheen is from a Division-2 school and while he possess
a massive frame (6’7) to go along with speed and quickness,
he’s a developmental project that is much more attractive
in Dynasty league settings.
While neither Miller nor Sims offers much in the way of upside,
the tight end position has taken a real hit recently, and some
fantasy owners are drafting them later than ever. Keep an eye
on the depth chart into training camp and take a flier on the
starter if that’s the strategy you’re going for.
