Saddled with the least creative offensive coaches in the NFL
and given the worst receiver corps in the league, it’s not
a big surprise that Trubisky, the highly touted No.2 overall pick,
struggled to make much noise in 2017. But last year’s Rams
have proven that with the right coaches, and an infusion of talent,
offenses can make a dramatic improvement, and the Bears have followed
this recipe to a T.
Gone is the archaic offensive philosophy of John Fox, and in comes
the young mind of Matt Nagy, who cut his teeth in the classroom
of Andy Reid. Say what you will about his clock management, but
Reid’s offensive system has consistently produced fantasy stars
at his stops in Philadelphia and Kansas City. In addition to the
forward thinking Nagy, Chicago went all out in free agency, snagging
big play receivers in Alan Robinson and Taylor Gabriel and move
tight end Trey Burton. The Bears even moved up in the 2nd round
of the draft to select the prolific Anthony Miller from Memphis.
Overnight the Bears shook off the dust and reinvented themselves
on offense from top to bottom. With a staff also willing to engineer
more plays for electric Tarik Cohen, Trubisky has elite playmakers
at every level of the offense.
Now a QB can have all the talent in the world, but what exactly
have we seen from Trubisky to be sold on him as a fantasy asset?
For one, he completed nearly 60% of his passes, which is great
considering his circumstances, and his perceived rawness coming
out of North Carolina. A quick look at the stats shows a guy who
got more comfortable as he got more starts, and other than a blowout
loss to the Eagles, he kept his team in every game they played.
He also showed plenty of athleticism, rushing for the 13th most
yards amongst quarterbacks despite playing in only 12 games.
The Bears lost a ton of close games last year, and retained one
of the best defensive coaches in the NFL in Vic Fangio. It’s
going to take some time for these pieces to gel on offense and
Robinson has to prove he’s all the back from the torn ACL,
but I really think the Bears are going to surprise people this
year. I think Trubisky makes a leap in his second season and finishes
as an upper tier QB2, and is someone I’d be looking to add
late to pair with an established star.
RB Jordan
Howard (2017 RB Rank - No.10, 11.2 FPts/G)
While the final numbers look strong (1,100+ yards rushing and
9 touchdowns), Howard’s number’s overall were a bit
of a letdown after his dazzling rookie year. His yards per carry
average dipped a full yard from his first season (5.2 to 4.1)
and he was much less consistent, (11 games of 70+ yards in 2016
compared to 6 such games in 2017). Add to the fact that he was
still unable to bring anything to the passing game and you had
the makings of Howard being a risky fantasy start last season.
With all the hype around the new coaching philosophy, the additions
at receiver, and usage of Tarik Cohen, Howard sounds miscast for
this offense as a one-dimensional workhorse. While it’s
unlikely Howard morphs into Marshall Faulk overnight, he’s
still going to be a big part of this offense. He’s gone
over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, and though
his overall touches might be down this year, I think they’ll
be much more efficient and his yards-per-carry average should
rise. The entire Chicago offense should be more efficient, meaning
more trips to the redzone, which in theory means more goal line
chances for Howard. Howard has proven to be a durable workhorse,
and his one dimensional game means he’s prone to some duds
(and a much lower priority in PPR leagues), but he should threaten
to score double digit touchdowns, and I’d be thrilled to
have him as my RB2, as he’ll have another chance to approach
RB1 numbers.
5 foot 6 inches of dynamite, Cohen took the league by storm over
the first two games of the 2017 season, catching 16 passes and
totaling 201 yards and finding the endzone. Using his dynamic
quickness and elite change of direction skills, Cohen was a nightmare
for linebackers to cover, and he provided the Bears offense with
their lone big play threat. But after Week 3 Cohen’s usage
inexplicably stopped, and while Chicago was totally devoid of
receivers, the diminutive back from North Carolina A&T could
only muster five receptions from Weeks 5-10. His usage ticked
up slightly in the last quarter of the season, but it was clear
the Chicago coaching staff simply couldn’t find creative
ways to get Cohen in the game plan.
The chatter this offseason couldn’t be more different. New
head man Matt Nagy has talked Cohen up constantly, comparing him
to Tyreek Hill in playmaking ability and potential usage. He’s
never going to be a 10+ carry guy in the NFL due to his size,
but his absolute reception floor is 50, and he’s a big play
waiting to happen. Cohen makes for a strong FLEX play in PPR leagues,
but is more of a RB4/5 in standard leagues as a quality bye week
fill-in.
Robinson took the NFL by storm in his second season when he put
up a monster 80-1400-14 campaign with Jacksonville. He came crashing
down to earth in 2016 seeing a huge drop off in every statistical
category. He had a comically bad catch rate on deep balls, and
looked to bounce back going in 2017. Well the redemption season
never quite got off the ground as Robinson tore his ACL on his
first and only reception of the season. Unwilling to pick up his
5th year option, or franchise him, Robinson skipped off to Chicago
where his future looks bright once again.
The former Nittany Lion will have had nearly a year to recover
from his injury by the time camp starts next month. All reports
have his rehab going along perfectly, and the Bears expect him
to be a big part of the offense as evidenced by the financial
commitment they made to him. Still only 24 despite entering his
5th season in the league, Robinson has age and monster talent
on his side. He participated in OTAs this offseason, and looks
on track to be the No.1 option in the passing game. Chicago has
gutted its receiving core leaving a ton of potential receptions
and yards on the table for Robinson to claim. I don’t know
that he returns to the silly numbers of 2015, but this offense
is going to be open and creative, and I think Trubisky makes a
leap in his 2nd year. I’m not ready to pin my hopes on him
as a WR1, but I think he puts up consistent WR2 numbers with the
upside for more.
Chicago traded up in the 2nd round this spring to nab the highly
touted and ultra-productive receiver from Memphis. Miller brings
polished route running ability and the skill to get open consistently
at the short and intermediate levels. The Bears project Miller
to man the slot, and this has the potential to pay off for Miller,
as he can use his quickness over the middle to be a reliable target
for Trubisky. With terrific body control, strength, and athleticism
(he was a state champion track athlete in high school), Miller
has a chance to produce in his first season. With all things being
equal (and healthy) Miller will probably end up being more important
to the Bears than he will your fantasy team, but I’d certainly
keep a close eye on the rapport he develops with his QB in the
preseason. If Robinson proves to be slow to return to health,
I could easily see Chicago leaning on Miller in the passing game,
giving him fantasy value. Right now, he’s an end of the
roster stash at best.
Short of some major injuries to some of the other pass catchers
on the team, Gabriel will find it extremely tough to return fantasy
value in 2018. Likely more valuable as a lid lifter that will
keep the defense honest, Gabriel is at best 4th in line for receptions
behind Robinson, Burton, Cohen and perhaps even 2nd round rookie
Anthony Miller. He’s been in a pretty prolific Atlanta offense
the last two seasons and only sniffed fantasy relevance in 2016
when he had half a dozen scores.
Leaving the talent laden Eagles for a chance at consistent playing
time in Chicago, Burton gives the Bears a plus athlete and route
runner at a position of need in the offense. Head coach and OC
Matt Nagy bring a very tight end friendly scheme to the Windy
City, a system that has turned Travis Kelce into a star. Burton,
the 5th year player out of Florida made the most of his starts
last season filling in for the injured Zach Ertz. In the two games
Ertz missed, Burton tallied 112 yards and three scores. The Eagle
offense is a hybrid of the system Nagy ran in Kansas City (from
the Andy Reid coaching tree) so you know that Burton is guaranteed
to be a big part of the weekly game plan. He has the size and
speed to be a match-up problem, and he has a young quarterback
that can and will work the middle of the field. Because you can
see the breakout from a mile away, it would be a major disappointment
if Burton isn’t a top-12 tight end this season. He’s
a great bet to surpass his career totals during his first year
in Chicago, and this is a fantasy position worth gambling on upside.
