At this point in his career you know what you’re getting
with Big Ben. Despite helming one of the best offenses in the
league on a yearly basis, Roethlisberger has never really become
a consistent front line fantasy quarterback. Sure, every year
he has some supernova game, but you can also count on a few weeks
where an injury keeps him out of the lineup, or he throws a bunch
of interceptions and questions his self-worth.
More retirement talk, and a change in offensive coordinators
has put Ben in the spotlight again. I feel like the window on
this version of the Steelers is quickly closing. Another early
playoff exit (or worse) could be the catalyst for large scale
change. On the surface, I don’t see the move to Randy Fichtner
as offensive coordinator hurting Ben. There had actually been
a power struggle in recent years with former coordinator Todd
Haley. Roethlisberger seems to have won, as Fichtner has been
on the Steelers’ staff for a decade, the last eight years
of those as quarterback coach. I think this could be a good thing
for Ben and this offense, as a new, more trusted voice in his
ear could bring some stability.
From line to skill positions, Big Ben is part of the best overall
offense in the NFL. With the potential to have the best trio of
receivers he’s had in years, a sense of urgency, and a better
relationship with his coaches, I think Ben puts together a strong
season and finishes close to the top-5 in scoring, making him
a fantastic value for those owners who typically grab him in that
2nd or 3rd tier of quarterbacks.
As an annual contender for the No.1 overall pick in fantasy drafts,
Bell is just another “what you see is what you get”
Steelers player. But there are some major red flags with Bell
that you need to consider if you have the opportunity select him.
First, word hit this week that this will likely be his last season
in a Pittsburgh uniform, as he and the team failed to agree on
a long-term contract. This means yet another season he misses
training camp, but more importantly, this means he has no incentive
to sacrifice himself for the Steelers. He has enough good tape
and history of production to present to potential suitors next
offseason. I could easily envision a scenario where his health
takes precedence over his playing time, and he sits games he would
have otherwise played in. Imagine how ugly things could get if
the Steelers falter and fail to make the playoffs.
Another red flag for me is workload. He’s consistently
among the league leaders in both rushing attempts and receptions,
and 2017 was no different. His 406 touches easily paced the NFL,
and his 321 carries and 85 receptions were both career highs.
It’s a real good thing he kept up this volume, as his yards-per-carry
average (4.0) dropped nearly a yard from 2016’s 4.9. While
Gurley, Hunt, and Kamara were busting off big plays left and right,
Bell’s longest play from scrimmage was a 42-yard reception.
His longest run was a mere 27 yards! Of the top 25 rushers from
last year, Bell’s long rush of 27 was behind only the ancient
Frank Gore’s 21 yard carry. In the last two seasons he’s
only had seven carries of 20+ yards, when in 2014 and 2015 he
combined for 16. His patented patient running style only works
when you can explode through the hole and get to the next level
with momentum, and he didn’t do that enough last season.
Is this an aberration, have teams caught on, or is it a sign of
slippage?
Bell has had it made from the minute he became part of the Steelers.
He’s enjoyed one of the best offensive lines in the NFL,
has never had to face 10-men in the box, and is given boatloads
of touches. I think we’ve already seen the best Bell has
to offer, and the red flags are serious issues to consider. This
might not be a popular take, but I think Bell has the biggest
bust potential of anyone being considered in the top-5, and I
would let someone else take him with a high pick. You know what
they say about the top of the draft, a good 1st round pick doesn’t
win you the league title, but it can certainly lose it for you.
Conner has an amazing story of perseverance, but he’ll need more
than an inspiring story to help the Steelers in his second season.
His rookie campaign was largely a wash, as the 3rd rounder played
in 12 games, but had a largely uninspiring 32 carries and zero
receptions. A knee injury ended his season early, and he enters
2018 in a big spot. With Bell likely in the final season with
the team, Conner has to show the Steelers he has what it takes
to be the heir apparent. He’s apparently worked extremely hard
this offseason to remake his body, and work on the weak spots
in his game. By most accounts he was impressive in spring practices,
and how he looks in the preseason will go a long way in determining
whether he becomes someone to watch in dynasty and redraft leagues
alike. He’ll get all the reps in camp with Bell holding out, and
if he can show he was what it takes, could be a worthy handcuff
to Bell owners.
For my money Brown is still the consensus No.1 receiver off the
board. Brown has annually been both one of the most consistent
and high impact fantasy players for the past five years, as he’s
a multi-format all-star, and player that can carry a fantasy team.
His receptions have come down a bit from the astronomical numbers
of 2014 and 2015, but the yardage and touchdown totals have remained
elite. Barring injury to himself or Big Ben, Brown should have
no problem meeting expectations in this offense. He has a few
other pass catchers that defenses at least have to respect, and
continues to use his elite quickness to gain separation at all
levels of the field, even if the deep bombs down the field might
suffer some regression. I’m not sure how much music is left in
the symphony he and Big Ben have created together, but put your
trust in Brown while it lasts.
I’m sure there were a few season long league champions that had
Smith-Schuster on their roster. Likely a draft flier or free agent
add, the wonderkid (he just turned 21) from USC was one of fantasy’s
biggest surprises in 2017. As long as 3rd or 4th on the receiver
depth chart to start the year, JuJu quickly ascended into the
starting lineup after injuries and suspensions to those above
him. He did what was asked of him and more, showing a polished
all-around game, and quickly became a big part of the weekly game
plan.
Smith-Schuster won’t be sneaking up on anyone in 2018, and that
includes the other teams in your league. He’ll command a WR2 price
tag, as he possesses a fantastic floor. He has the ability to
stack yardage and touchdowns, and with Brown on the field, will
never see a double team. Putting tons of faith in a young player
with only a year’s worth of production is risky, but I think he’s
a perfect fit in this offense, and gives the Steelers insurance
as he could step up into the No.1 role should Brown go down. This
passing offense has long proven able to sustain multiple fantasy
stars, and I think the hyphenated one has what it takes to build
off his successful rookie campaign. He’s exactly the sort of player
I look for in a No.2 WR, and that’s what you need to be willing
to pay.
The 2017 Biletnikoff Winner as the Nation’s top receiver,
Washington comes to Pittsburg as a 2nd round rookie, and should
be ready to contribute right away. Given a starting grade by draft
pundits, Washington brings a Martavis Bryant game to the Steelers
offense without the baggage. Despite a compact 5’11’’
210 inch frame, Washington was a big play maven for Oklahoma State.
During his senior year he averaged a silly 20.9 yards per reception,
finding the endzone 13 times. Washington should find his way into
3-receiver sets right from the start, and has enough collegiate
experience in a power conference to be trusted. This is one of
the few offenses where the 3rd receiver realistically has some
fantasy value, so keep a close eye on Washington’s progress
in the summer. If he can hold off some of the underwhelming veterans
on this team, he might be someone to keep an eye on as a late
round flier.
This offense hasn’t gotten much fantasy production from
the tight end since the heyday of Heath Miller, but Vance McDonald
could be the one to change that in 2018. Acquired from the 49ers
late last summer, McDonald had a very slow start to his Pittsburgh
career. Injuries and adjustments kept him off the field, but as
the season winded up he seemed to overtake Jessie James as the
Steelers’ move tight end of choice, culminating in a 10-112
line in a playoff loss to Jacksonville. With a year to get comfortable
with his offensive system, and quarterback, McDonald looks poised
to make some noise at a difficult to predict position. While he
displayed great athleticism during his time in San Fran, injuries
have knocked him off track before. If your strategy is to let
the top tier tight ends go off the board early, McDonald makes
for an intriguing sleeper option capable of a 50-catch, 5 touchdown
season.