After a disaster of a rookie season and a regime change in Chicago,
there was legit talk of the Bears moving on from Fields. They
eventually stuck with the inexperienced Ohio State product and
watched him literally run circles around the NFL in his second
season. Finishing seventh in the league with 1,143 yards rushing,
Fields was very likely a league winner waiver wire pickup for
more than a few fantasy squads. But while he dazzled as a runner
there still is much work to be done as a passer.
While not exactly flush with receiving talent, Fields still did
have some decent weapons in Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney and Chase
Claypool. Yes, those three pale in comparison to the talent he
threw to as a Buckeye, but Fields continued to be incredibly raw
as a passer. In his 588 NFL attempts he’s struggled to complete
60% of his throws, and while he remains an elite athlete that
is in desperate need of more reps, my concern is that he might
be developing pocket habits that will be hard to break. His 160
rush attempts from 2022 were second only to Jalen Hurts, but many
of Fields’ attempts were out of self-preservation. Unable to get
to his 2nd or 3rd reads because of pressure (perceived or real),
Fields didn’t spend much time in the pocket. His 318 passing attempts
were over 400 fewer than league leader Tom Brady!
It’s unlikely that Fields will be able to replicate the rushing
totals from 2022, so he’s going to have to take the next step
as a passer to remain a top-10 fantasy option. Chicago has put
a clear emphasis on upgrading around him, as they dealt for receiver
D.J. Moore, drafted o-lineman Darnell Wright 10th overall, and
added guard Nate Davis in free agency. The Bears have committed
to developing Fields, and in his defense, he did improve his efficiency
in the 2nd half of 2022. He’s locked in as the franchise signal
caller and an incremental increase in his passing numbers to go
with his elite rushing floor, make him a clear QB1 going forward.
After bouncing around the league the first few years of his career
due to injury and lack of opportunity, Foreman made major fantasy
waves last season on his way to a 203-914-5 line for the Panthers.
Foreman’s talent was never a question, as he had 2,000 rushing
yard seasons both in high school and college at the University
of Texas. Foreman flashed that rushing ability from Week 7 on,
as he tallied five 100+ yard games for the Panthers over the final
11 games of the season. Despite showing out, the depressed market,
his age, and one-dimensional game, the best Foreman could do was
a one-year deal with the Bears. Unfortunately, he joins a crowded
backfield, one that includes an incumbent, a 4th round rookie,
and a quarterback who figures to be in the top 3 in rush attempts
at his position. Because of lack of passing game versatility,
and unclear path to touches, it's incredibly unlikely Foreman
will see enough volume in 2023 to be as reliable an option as
he was last season. Add him as an end of the bench RB 4/5 and
hope for some backfield clarity.
With Fields and the crowded running back room making the Chicago
backfield a fantasy mess to avoid, Khalil Herbert is the one guy
that I think has the most potential to strike gold. Much like
Alexander Mattison in Minnesota, Herbert was stuck behind a vet,
but when he saw starters' touches, he shined. Whatever the issue,
Herbert was never given an opportunity to overtake David Montgomery
last season despite being ultra efficient with a 5.7 yards-per-carry
average on 129 carries. Like many teams in the NFL, Chicago has
chosen to go young and cheap in the backfield, and I fully expect
them to utilize a three-back rotation for most of the season.
Chicago was 2nd in the NFL with 558 rushing attempts, but I expect
that to drop this season as they ask Fields to take on more as
a passer. While I don’t think Herbert has much standalone value,
his history of production when given starters touches makes him
the highest upside of anyone in the backfield.
Stuck behind all-world talent Bijon Robinson at Texas, Johnson
now finds himself in a logjam behind two veterans in the Bears
backfield. Unfortunately, the 4th rounder will need things to
fall his way to see many meaningful carries. The 6’2, 220-pound
bruiser actually came to the Longhorns as a quarterback before
switching positions as a freshman. Productive when given the opportunity,
he’s got 47 games of big-time college experience, and showed enough
on tape as backup to be a middle round pick. While not draftable
outside giant, or dynasty leagues, Johnson should be a waiver
add if something happens to Herbert or Foreman.
One of fantasy’s most reliable receivers over the past
several seasons, Moore was shipped to Chicago for a draft pick
this spring. While it might not be the best landing spot for his
fantasy prospects, anything is better than what he endured last
season with the Panthers quarterback carousel of nightmares. While
his reception and yardage totals were his lowest since his rookie
year, he still managed to produce a healthy 63-888-7 line. The
seven scores were easily a career high, and he joins a Bears squad
led by what should be a up and coming Justin Fields. Moore and
Fields should challenge defenses vertically, and being the alpha
receiver should also help Moore straddle that WR2/3 line. If you
believe in Fields, Moore could end up being an amazing draft day
value. If you don’t, Moore falls off into solid, but uninspiring
WR3 territory.
Much like the muddy backfield, the receivers behind D.J. Moore
have a volatile range of outcomes. Injuries, offensive philosophy,
and being miscast as a WR1 all combined to torpedo Mooney last
season. After an impressive 81-1055-4 line in his second NFL season,
Mooney quickly tumbled off fantasy rosters after a dreadful start
to 2022. He didn’t score until Week 9, and his season ended
with a nasty leg injury in Week 11. Claypool on the other hand
was fully healthy, but failed to make any impact at all following
his trade from Pittsburgh. The coaches blamed it on his limited
knowledge of the playbook, but when quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield
can win a game for the Rams the week he joined the team, I find
mothballing Claypool for two months hard to believe. On an offense
that will run more than it passes, Chicago will be hard pressed
to support more than one or two fantasy pass catchers.
Seven touchdowns, and a smooth connection with his quarterback
made Kmet a surprise top-10 fantasy option at tight end for the
2022 season. His seven scores were a big correction after he failed
to find the endzone in 2021 despite hauling in 60 passes. The
addition of Moore, and the presence of Money and Claypool are
sure to eat into his looks, but he has the frame to be a force
in the red zone, and if he can again fall into the 5-7 touchdown
range, could find himself in the conversation as a low-end TE1.
