I’m trying to imagine what it would have been like if
my starter home was a fully furnished four-bedroom with a cute
back-yard, because that’s the situation Caleb Williams finds
himself with the Bears. I’m not just talking about the tens
of millions he’ll get this year, but the smorgasbord of
weapons he’ll have at his disposal this season. I can’t
think of a better supporting cast situation for a No.1 pick in
recent memory. With Moore, Allen, Kmet, and electric rookie Odunze
to throw to, Williams’ situation probably has Justin Fields
looking like the shrugging shoulders emoji. Williams was electric
in college, making off-schedule plays look routine, as he carried
both Oklahoma and Southern Cal. At times the pressure of matching
teams point for point caused Williams to develop some poor habits,
but he never was careless with the football, as he had an other-worldly
94-14 touchdown to interception ratio in college. With a top-10
defense to rely on, Williams won’t have to play hero ball.
If he can simply work within the confines of the offense, get
decent protection, and get the ball to his playmakers on schedule,
he could knock on the door of the top-10 in his rookie season,
much like C.J. Stroud did last year. With the ability to make
plays with his legs, and the ability to handle the pressure of
being the best player in college football the last several years,
Williams has the mental and physical make-up to be a fantasy asset
from Day 1.
RB D’Andre
Swift
(2023 RB Rank - No.23, 10.1 FPts/G)
Swift had always shown flashes of elite talent while in Detroit,
but a lack of toughness and reliability caused the Lions to ship
him off to Philly. By most accounts it was a great move for Swift
as he set career highs in games played (16), carries (229), and
rushing yards (1,049). The lack of scoring (6 total touchdowns)
and career low 39 receptions really capped his upside. A scuffling
mid-season stretch kept him as a low end RB2, but Swift parlayed
his 2023 season into a lucrative multi-year deal with a loaded
Chicago offense. Swift gives the Bears a dynamic threat on the
ground and in the air, and with the sheer number of weapons in
the passing game, he should rarely see stacked boxes. His 8-million
a year (14-million guaranteed) contract means the Bears see him
as an RB1, and with talented, but flawed incumbents Khalil Herbert,
and Roschon Johnson behind him, look for new coordinator Shane
Waldon to use Swift much like he did with Kenneth Walker in Seattle.
Walker’s 13 carries inside the 5 were tied for the 8th most in
the NFL, and with Swift not having to contend with Jalen Hurts
or Justin Fields stealing scores, should have a chance to approach
double digit touchdowns if he holds down his role at the goal
line. Even with baked-in injury risk, I think Swift could be a
sneaky RB2 value.
The trio of Herbert, Foreman, and Johnson combined for 1,400+
rushing yards and 8 scores, of which Herbert contributed the most.
The “starter” when healthy, Herbert piled up most
of his production in just three games, as a slow start and a high
ankle sprain doomed his numbers. Clearly Chicago didn’t
think enough of Herbert to let him run it back as a starter, paying
good money to bring Swift to Chicago. Consider Herbert a cheap,
veteran option to back-up and spell Swift, rather than a true
competitor for the alpha role. Because workhorse backs are rare
breeds in the modern NFL, Herbert is going to contribute a fair
share, but he’s more waiver add than draftable asset.
Despite injuries to both backs in front of him, the 2023 rookie
didn’t see the field as much as you would have expected. Whether
it was the mental aspect more than the physical that kept his contributions
down, Johnson still led Bears runners with 34 receptions, proving
his receiving chops. I expect Swift to be the leader in the backfield,
but there could be chances for Johnson if he can leapfrog Herbert.
Johnson is younger, and was drafted by this front office. Like Herbert,
Johnson is not a draftable player, but I wouldn’t be surprised to
see him be a capable fantasy starter should something happen to
Swift.
If “Things that Boggle the Mind” were a category
in Jeopardy, the trade that sent D.J. Moore to the Bears would
be worth $500. The receiver needy Panthers, who were breaking
in a rookie quarterback, traded their only pass catching threat
for peanuts. Moore nonchalantly headed over to the Windy City
and put up career highs in receptions (96), yards (1,364) and
touchdowns (8) all while being the only receiver worth paying
attention to. Throw in an inconsistent run-first quarterback,
and Moore continued to be the rare receiver that thrives in even
the most dire situations. While he should get a strong upgrade
in rookie Caleb Williams, the receiver room is suddenly packed
for the Bears. Moore enjoyed being the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd read
on each play last year but that simply won’t be the case
in 2024, so repeating the 136 targets and 96 receptions is going
to be a longshot. A rookie QB, and a Shane Waldon offense that
utilizes all three receivers fairly equally, means Moore will
be hard pressed to be anywhere near the WR1 he was last season.
WR Keenan Allen
(2023 WR Rank - No.11, 12.8 FPts/G)
Allen shook off an injury plagued 2022 to dominate his 11th NFL
season. In only 13 games he set career highs in receptions and
yardage, and had his finest fantasy season since 2017. He was
downright unstoppable in Weeks 3 (18 receptions), and 10-12 (35
receptions for almost 400 yards), showing he still has the ability
to carry a passing game. As he enters his age 32 season, he moves
on to Chicago, the first time he’s played home games outside
of Southern California. With the Bears he’ll be breaking
in a talented, but likely inconsistent quarterback, as well as
competing with an accomplished vet and dynamic rookie for targets.
Allen has been the alpha his entire career, but this offense doesn’t
force the ball to any one guy. Allen is going to have to deal
with a diminished role. Throw in the fact that he’s missed
10 games the last two years, and I’d be hard pressed to
rely on him as anything more than a low end WR3.
For professional growth purposes Odunze walks into the perfect
situation. He will get to learn from two elite vets, gets to develop
alongside his rookie QB teammate, and won’t face any pressure
to carry the passing game as he should always get the best matchups
on defense. Odunze was a dominate college receiver, and the 9th
overall pick, so don’t look for the Bears to totally exclude
him, but in reality, he’ll start the season as at best,
the No.3 option in the passing game. His floor should be Jaxon
Smith-Njigba’s season from a year ago, putting him squarely
in WR4/5 range. If Allen or Moore were to get hurt, Odunze could
certainly pop off, and for my money his upside makes him a much
better season-long add than the aging Allen.
Kmet stepped up in a big way last season, as he helped fill the
pass-catching void behind D.J. Moore. The 5th year tight end finished
in the fantasy top-10, helped by a career high line of 73 receptions
for 719 yards on 90 targets. His 13 touchdowns over the last two
seasons are solid standard league numbers, but like most of the
incumbent skill players on this offense, he’s set for a
big regression. The additions of Swift, Allen, and Odunze means
Kmet drops way down on the pecking order, even if he’ll
benefit from an improvement in quarterback play. With a drop in
receptions and yards, Kmet is going to need to approach double-digit
touchdowns if he wants to land in the top-10 again in 2024.
