Bookend injuries to his calf, then wrist doomed Burrow’s
2023 fantasy season, and leave some serious questions about his
immediate and long-term future. The tendon tear in his wrist was
a rare injury, and the rehab has been extensive, but positive.
A fully healthy and effective camp will go a long way to setting
the tone for an offense that’s breaking in a new coordinator,
has major changes on the O-line and will be taking one more shot
at a chip before some major roster decisions come to pass. On
the field, defenses have gone to two high safety looks to teams
like the Bengals, and Burrow has been forced into a shorter field.
After a monster 8.9 yards per attempt average in 2021, that number
fell to 7.4 and 6.3 the following two years. In limiting the big
play, defenses have conceded short area throws, and the Cinci
offense just has had to work harder for big chunk plays.
If you are a healthy Burrow truther, then come in close for some
additional good news. With Joe Mixon off to Houston and very little
left in the backfield, the Bengals could very well be one of the
most prolific pass offenses in the NFL. They were 7th in the league
in pass attempts each of the last two years and that was with
their former workhorse Mixon, and half a season of Jake Browning
behind center. Burrow has the swagger and determination to get
his team back in the conversation, and he was lights out in games
against San Francisco, Buffalo and Houston before the wrist gave
out. Injury, not talent questions will deflate his value, but
Burrow possesses the ability, weapons, and scheme to have top-3
upside.
The 2020 3rd rounder out of Utah was just plain ordinary during
his first three NFL seasons. Maxing out as backup with the Bills
and Colts, Moss got a shot to be the guy early last season when
Jonathan Taylor missed the first four games. From Weeks 2-5 Moss
casually ripped off 445 yards and four total touchdowns, numbers
that practically surpassed his previous season highs! When Taylor
returned Moss tossed aside his superman cape and returned to civilian
status the rest of the year. This flash of greatness was enough
to entice the Bengals to give him a shot to be a starter, but
with limited history of pro production, an ordinary skillset and
unimpressive physical measurables, Moss at best is simply a warm
body in one of the cheapest backfields in the NFL. A decent target
for zero RB drafters because of the perceived volume, Moss is
probably best considered a low-end RB3.
With Mixon playing the 6th most snaps among running backs in
2023, there is a ton of work to go around, and Brown, the 2nd
year, 5th-round pick should get plenty of opportunity. The young
backs on this team, Chase included, couldn’t be trusted
last season, which was a big reason why Mixon never came off the
field. Brown has a history of college production, elite athleticism,
and with only a replacement level talent Zack Moss in his way,
he could return some quality value as a late-round dart throw
that is surely to have plenty of inconsistency due to unreliable
volume.
Though he remains an elite top-5 talent at the position, Chase
and this Bengal offense has had to change their stripes the last
few seasons. With defenses keeping the lid on with Cover-2 looks,
Chase’s yards per reception dipped to 12-yards per reception
these past two years after being over 18 in his rookie season.
This certainly could be more of the same in 2024, as the Bengals
could scheme him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage as a
supplement to their meek run game. With Higgins and Burrow back
healthy, Chase should have more room to operate, and while the
downfield plays might be fewer, Chase should vie for the league
lead in targets and receptions. One of the best bets at the receiver
position, especially in PPR leagues, there are few receivers with
a better floor or ceiling.
Not only did Burrow’s injury torpedo this passing game,
Higgins missed five games of his own on the way to the worst statistical
season of his career. Higgins’ downward trend comes at a
bad time, as he’s seeking a long-term contract, but will
instead settle for a franchise tag year. Working against him is
the shift to a shorter passing attack. While his average depth
of target has risen from 10.7 in 2022 to 12.8 in 2023, his opportunities
to make plays hasn’t. He had five games of four or fewer
targets last season which is equal to the number he had in 2021
and 2022 combined. If this offense goes as pass heavy as I think
it will, Higgins should see an uptick in chances if the young
bucks behind him on the depth chart don’t take too many
for themselves. Higgins might not be trustworthy on a weekly basis,
but he's the rare WR3 that can pop off and win you a week, especially
in standard leagues.
Known more for his dreadful rendition of the “griddy”
than for his play on the field the last few seasons, Gesicki joins
the Bengals on a one-year deal. After averaging 95 targets over
a three-year span with the Dolphins, Gesicki barely made an impact
over the last two seasons with Miami and New England, but should
have a real chance to resurrect his career in Cinci. Though tight
ends aren't a big part of this passing offense, the Bengals desperately
need a Cover-2 breaker that can challenge the middle of the field
and there are a bunch of Tyler Boyd targets still up for grabs.
Gesicki is the best pass catching tight end this team has had
in several years, even if he’s one dimensional. The increased
volume isn’t going to return Gesicki to his glory days,
but a 50-500-5 ceiling isn’t out of the question.
