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Jeff Collins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

What To Expect - AFC North
8/19/03

Baltimore

QB - Coach Brian Billick is in a tough spot. The Ravens overachieved last year and barely missed the playoffs. He is now in the situation where he has to choose between a returning player with meager accomplishments or a rookie for whom he traded their #1 pick next year. He has this to worry about, all the while trying to convince everyone that he is an offensive genius. Its not easy being coach Billick. But with great ego comes great responsibility.

You have to believe Redman will start the season. He is still trying to get from under that massive shadow cast by Browning Nagle at Louisville. The problem is that Redman, I'm afraid, is doomed to be second banana. He will keep the seat warm until Boller is ready or until he screws up enough to warrant the rookie coming in earlier than expected.

Boller comes off one good year at Cal and made a name for himself by showcasing his arm strength in his pre-draft workouts by throwing the ball through the uprights from midfield while on one knee. Sure, that's a neat parlor trick, but unless they create some quarterback version of the dropkick, does that mean anything? Billick will be anxious to get Boller on the field, but expectations should be as mild as German salsa.

Prediction: Neither one will produce numbers that warrant a midround pick. Expect Boller to be on the field later in the year, but hopefully not flat on his back.

RB - Jamal Lewis is going to produce on the field but the real concerns are raised in regards to him scoring. Sadly, his scoring has been more prolific off the field where his thoughts of a "super bowl" include a hookah, a clean screen and some really comfortable pillows. One more strike and the league will suspend him for a year, so that and his history of injuries raise more red flags that a caretaker at a Chinese cemetery. Last year was a reminder, however, that Lewis still has a great deal of talent. He ground out 1,300 yards but only racked up seven total touchdowns. He showed some versatility picking up 400 yards in receiving as well.

Prediction: With the lack of real threat at QB, Baltimore will once again grind it out on the ground. As long as he keeps his head on straight, expect a year better than last.

WR/TE - Travis Taylor finally showed up last season and was a very big contributor with the arrival of Jeff Blake. Taylor scored six touchdowns in the 10 games Blake started, but didn't find the end zone in any of Redman's starts. That is the kind of one-on-one chemistry that uncomfortable blind dates are built upon. Taylor can get downfield, but he has to produce consistently to develop a reputation as a playmaker in the league. The team dropped big dollars on veteran Frank Sanders in the off-season. I use the term dropped because is looks like an inadvertent accident at this point. He is 30 years old, really stress old while you read this, and is coming off a 34-catch, two touchdowns season. No wonder the team gave him $8.8 million over four years. The big weapon on the team is going to be tight end Todd Heap. He is big and fast and looks to establish himself with Jeremy Shockey and Tony Gonzalez as one of the best tight ends in the league. Heap scored six times to go with 800 yards and the team will find a way to improve those numbers.

Prediction: Heap has the upside and will improve on last year. Taylor will produce similar numbers while Sanders will take to complaining about the locker being drafty and how much easier life was before there were cars.

K/D - With an offense being average with the most optimistic predictions for this club, Matt Stover is not going to get the opportunities to contribute. He failed to reach 100 points last year and I see similarly meager results coming this year. Defensively, Ray Lewis returns, so the team unit automatically improves. The additional of rookie sack specialist Terrell Suggs hopefully will help as well. Lewis' bum shoulder cut short a season where he was playing to his normal high standards. He is arguably the top LB pick in individual defensive player drafts. In Lewis' absence, Peter Boulware chipped in nicely with seven sacks. Suggs' impact could be huge, but a slow start in camp has people wondering what his impact will be. Will he be that Julius Peppers impact or Andre Wadsworth kind of bust? Limited expectations will be the best approach. Safety Ed Reed might be poised for a big campaign after his 5 INT's and 67 tackles last season.

Prediction: Stover is mediocre number-wise. Lewis will return to his old ways and might lead the NFL in individual tackles and garishly colored hat/suit combos. Reed's stock, as well as the team unit, is on the way up. Boulware stands pat as his sack totals fall and Suggs might finish with a flurry, but expect a slow start.

Pittsburgh

QB - The Pittsburgh offense has a gone a different direction, as Tommy Maddox and Kordell Stewart combined to throw for over 4,000 yards last year. That audible thud was me falling out of my chair after reading that stat.

So Maddox, who threw 20 TD's in his 12 starts last year looks like a good bet to improve this year. But there are questions in the Steel City. Injuries have popped up on the offensive line, the running game is hardly set in stone and when did Mark Malone start doing work for ESPNews? Did he take on a second mortgage or something?

Maddox, of course, has no value as a scrambler, but he is in a good position to do some damage this year. The offense will move the ball and he has good weapons. He is in that third group of quarterbacks that aren't top tier players, but have real value if you get them late.

Prediction: Statistically, Maddox will be right on par with last year. Very upper-middle class, just like the demographic for Iron City Beer.

RB - Jerome Bettis and Amos Zereoue will share time this year in the backfield. Bettis, who is starting to show signs of age, missed four games last year with knee and other bowling related injuries. The Steelers could have put some riders in the contract against bowling in the off season, but they didn't so they have to live with the repercussions. He did score nine times, but his yardage slipped to 666 yards, the number of the overused back. Zereoue was adequate in his substitution role, but never really showed he deserved to be the man, kind of like Sammy Hagar.

Prediction: The team likes to throw the ball and if they are going to share the carries, there isn't enough action to make fantasy owners happy. We are jerks, aren't we?

WR/TE - The best receiving combo in the league is Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward, but who is going to produce more is where the real debate lies.

Plaxico has the upside, but I think Ward is the #1. He is the target in the red zone, with eight of his twelve scores coming from the 20 and in. His status as the number one is solidified by the fact he still ended up with 1,300 yards. Burress is a physical specimen and this might be the year he breaks out, but I don't know if that is going to happen. I can't imagine the team passing anymore and Ward seems to have the grasp on the number one spot this year. What in the name of Bennie Cunningham has happened to the tight end position? Tights ends only caught 18 passes last year. To say that stinks would be an insult to rotting garbage everywhere. Jay Riemersma hopes to be the goal line weapon like he was in Buffalo, but I don't see that happening.

Prediction: Numerically, I don't see that much of a change. Plenty of yards for the two wideouts, with Ward getting more touchdowns. The tight end position is as used as often as napkin rings at a crack house.

K/D - Jeff Reed could be one of the biggest fantasy steals this year. His numbers should be right on par with the top kickers in the league, but the fact that he only played a partial season will alter his draft status. Snatch him up late. The defensive unit is solid, but isn't a point producing machine. Joey Porter, Jason Gildon and Kendrell Bell will be the catches of the individual defensive draft, with their value listed in descending order.

Predictions: Steal Reed late and get good if not great production from Porter. Gildon and Bell are in the group lower than Porter.

Cleveland

QB - Coach Butch Davis has named Kelly Holcomb the starter, upsetting the applecart in tenth and eleventh rounds of fantasy drafts everywhere. Holcomb and or Tim Couch will not be listed at the top of anyone's list unless you are a diehard Browns fan or if you are reading your cheat sheet upside-down. Davis is going to try and run more and keep the number of turnovers to minimum, which is also the advice given to me by my doctor after my last physical. A controversy might start between Holcomb and Couch, which is like having to make a tough choice between lukewarm or tepid water. Unspectacular options lead to unspectacular choices.

Prediction: Fantasy results as vibrant as the teams color scheme.

RB - William Green will be the beneficiary of the Browns offensive mindset. After a tentative start last season, Green finished with the flurry expected from the former first round pick. He closed out 2002 with an average of over 100 yards in the last seven games to go with five touchdowns. He is poised for a huge year that might project him into the first round next year. That will be the best news for Cleveland since the cancellation of The Drew Carey Show led to the cultural divorce between the two entities. You are off the hook, Cleveland. Enjoy your rebirth!!

Prediction: Green has a huge year and will be the steal of the draft in the second/third round.

WR/TE - If you spilt the moderate number of projected passes five ways, that leaves a crummy portion size. It's like trying to share a Velamint. Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan, Dennis Northcutt and Andre Davis all had good years last season. However, you would need to combine these four, statistically, into two receivers before you want to choose any of them. Adding tight end Steve Heiden into this mix doesn't cut into the "potential" production much.

Prediction: If I had to choose one player, Morgan would be my guess to be the number one guy, but I've made more passionate picks in the toothpaste aisle of my pharmacy.

K/D - Phil Dawson offers no surprises; so another 100-point season looks as inevitable as another cloying sentimental film from Robin Williams. Defensively, the team is consistent on the field, which doesn't produce in the fantasy perspective. On a team saddled with high draft picks and big salaries in Gerard Warren and Courtney Brown, you don't want Kenard Lang to be your number one fantasy option. But he is. The team doesn't pick up sacks, the secondary is average and the linebacking crew is middle of the road. Besides that, they are fine.

Prediction: Bushel upon bushel of mediocrity.

Cincinnati

QB - Jon Kitna had a quiet season last year, but with the arrival of number one pick Carson Palmer, he will be looking over his shoulder this year. Kitna had nice yardage numbers last year, as he averaged over 250 yards in the 13 games he played in, but he couldn't get the ball in the end zone. He did run for four scores last year, but who is kidding who. Footwork like that is usually followed by angry townspeople carrying torches and pitchforks. The team wants to sit Palmer for the year so he can learn. But that might not happen if things go bad in a hurry.

Prediction: Kitna will play it close to the vest statistically and isn't being challenged for the starting spot, so a big change won't occur.

RB - Everyone has always bemoaned the fact that Corey Dillon never had a top notch QB to take the pressure of him. He finally gets the top-notch signal caller, and he then is forced to watch him sit on the bench for a year. It has to be a lot of fun to be Corey Dillon. I'm sure everyone knows what to expect from Dillon. Somewhere around 1,300 yards and around seven touchdowns. He no longer is that number one fantasy back, but he will be a solid player from the second position. If you are concerned about the implications and impact of the departure of Lorenzo Neal, you might need a hobby. I heard stamp collecting is a blast!

Prediction: To quote David Byrne, "The same as it ever was. The same as it ever was. The same as it ever was…."

WR/TE - Chad Johnson could be a factor this year. The third year receiver finished with five scores and 1,100 yards in his first full season of playing time. It is not hard to imagine those numbers improving this season, so he is on the upswing. Peter Warrick is the number two man now and finished with six scores, but he obviously will never reach the potential the Bengals envisioned him having. His career has been more disappointing than the last third of "Fight Club." Reggie Kelly was acquired to fill in the hole at tight end. I'm not sure how large of a hole it was before, but I can still see daylight.

Prediction: Johnson's numbers are up while Warrick and Kelly are to be avoided like bloated cans of peaches.

K/D - Neil Rackers and his meager output shouldn't be considered. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but he is the fantasy equivalent of a Yugo. Defensively, Marvin Lewis' arrival will hopefully produce some much needed production. End Justin Smith looked poised to make his move last year, but it didn't happen, but should get more action this year. Takeo Spikes is gone, but Kevin Hardy was brought in to play middle linebacker and should flourish in Lewis' system.

Prediction: Rackers won't improve, but the defense will be moving on up.